Dynamic Risk Prediction of Response to Ursodeoxycholic Acid Among Patients with Primary Biliary Cholangitis in the USA.

BACKGROUND: Ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) remains the first-line therapy for primary biliary cholangitis (PBC); however, inadequate treatment response (ITR) is common. The UK-PBC Consortium developed the modified UDCA Response Score (m-URS) to predict ITR (using alkaline phosphatase [ALP] > 1.67 times the upper limit of normal [*ULN]) at 12 months post-UDCA initiation). Using data from the US-based Fibrotic Liver Disease Consortium, we assessed the m-URS in our multi-racial cohort. We then used a dynamic modeling approach to improve prediction accuracy. METHODS: Using data collected at the time of UDCA initiation, we assessed the m-URS using the original formula; then, by calibrating coefficients to our data, we also assessed whether it remained accurate when using Paris II criteria for ITR. Next, we developed and validated a dynamic risk prediction model that included post-UDCA initiation laboratory data. RESULTS: Among 1578 patients (13% men; 8% African American, 9% Asian American/American Indian/Pacific Islander; 25% Hispanic), the rate of ITR was 27% using ALP > 1.67*ULN and 45% using Paris II criteria. M-URS accuracy was "very good" (AUROC = 0.87, sensitivity = 0.62, and specificity = 0.82) for ALP > 1.67*ULN and "moderate" (AUROC = 0.74, sensitivity = 0.57, and specificity = 0.70) for Paris II. Our dynamic model significantly improved accuracy for both definitions of ITR (ALP > 1.67*ULN: AUROC = 0.91; Paris II: AUROC = 0.81); specificity approached 100%. Roughly 9% of patients in our cohort were at the highest risk of ITR. CONCLUSIONS: Early identification of patients who will not respond to UDCA treatment using a dynamic prediction model based on longitudinal, repeated risk factor measurements may facilitate earlier introduction of adjuvant treatment.

Low Uptake of Direct-acting Antiviral Therapy Among Hepatitis C Patients With Advanced Liver Disease and Access to Care, 2014-2017.

GOALS: To determine the proportion and characteristics of adults with hepatitis C at health care organizations in 4 US states who initiated direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). BACKGROUND: There are almost no data to assess the penetrance of treatment of the hepatitis C population in general US health care settings. STUDY: We conducted a prospective observational study using electronic clinical, pharmacy, and mortality data to determine the fraction of patients who initiated DAAs between January 2014 and December 2017, by start date and regimen. We used stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify sociodemographic and clinical characteristics associated with receipt of DAAs. RESULTS: Of 8823 patients, 2887 (32.7%) received DAAs. Quarterly (Q) uptake ranged from 1.1% in Q3 2014 to a high of 5.6% in Q2 2015. Characteristics associated with receipt of DAAs included age 51 to 70 years, higher income, pre-2014 treatment failure, and higher noninvasive fibrosis score (FIB4); however, over one half of patients with FIB4 scores >3.25, consistent with severe liver disease, were not treated. A lower likelihood of initiation was associated with Medicaid coverage. Of 5936 patients who did not initiate treatment, 911 (15.3%) had died and 2774 (46.7%) had not had a clinical encounter in ≥12 months by the end of the study. Fewer than 1% of DAA prescriptions originated from nonspecialty providers. CONCLUSIONS: During 4 calendar years of follow-up, one third of patients initiated DAAs. Large fractions of untreated patients had advanced liver disease, died, or were lost to follow-up. Even among patients in integrated health care systems, receipt of DAAs was limited.

Treatment Initiation for New Episodes of Depression in Primary Care Settings.

BACKGROUND: Depression is prevalent and costly, but despite effective treatments, is often untreated. Recent efforts to improve depression care have focused on primary care settings. Disparities in treatment initiation for depression have been reported, with fewer minority and older individuals starting treatment. OBJECTIVE: To describe patient characteristics associated with depression treatment initiation and treatment choice (antidepressant medications or psychotherapy) among patients newly diagnosed with depression in primary care settings. DESIGN: A retrospective observational design was used to analyze electronic health record data. PATIENTS: A total of 241,251 adults newly diagnosed with depression in primary care settings among five health care systems from 2010 to 2013. MAIN MEASURES: ICD-9 codes for depression, following a 365-day period with no depression diagnosis or treatment, were used to identify new depression episodes. Treatment initiation was defined as a completed psychotherapy visit or a filled prescription for antidepressant medication within 90 days of diagnosis. Depression severity was measured with Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) scores on the day of diagnosis. KEY RESULTS: Overall, 35.7% of patients with newly diagnosed depression initiated treatment. The odds of treatment initiation among Asians, non-Hispanic blacks, and Hispanics were at least 30% lower than among non-Hispanic whites, controlling for all other variables. The odds of patients aged ≥ 60 years starting treatment were half those of patients age 44 years and under. Treatment initiation increased with depression severity, but was only 53% among patients with a PHQ-9 score of ≥ 10. Among minority patients, psychotherapy was initiated significantly more often than medication. CONCLUSIONS: Screening for depression in primary care is a positive step towards improving detection, treatment, and outcomes for depression. However, study results indicate that treatment initiation remains suboptimal, and disparities persist. A better understanding of patient factors, and particularly system-level factors, that influence treatment initiation is needed to inform efforts by heath care systems to improve depression treatment engagement and to reduce disparities.

KRAS testing and epidermal growth factor receptor inhibitor treatment for colorectal cancer in community settings.

BACKGROUND: In metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC), mutations in the KRAS gene predict poor response to EGF receptor (EGFR) inhibitors. Clinical treatment guidelines now recommend KRAS testing if EGFR inhibitors are considered. Our study investigates the clinical uptake and utilization of KRAS testing. METHODS: We included 1,188 patients with mCRCs diagnosed from 2004 to 2009, from seven integrated health care delivery systems with a combined membership of 5.5 million. We used electronic medical records and targeted manual chart review to capture the complexity and breadth of real-world clinical oncology care. RESULTS: Overall, 428 patients (36%) received KRAS testing during their clinical care, and 266 (22%) were treated with EGFR inhibitors. Age at diagnosis (P = 0.0034), comorbid conditions (P = 0.0316), and survival time from diagnosis (P < 0.0001) influence KRAS testing and EGFR inhibitor prescribing. The proportion who received KRAS testing increased from 7% to 97% for those treated in 2006 and 2010, respectively, and 83% of all treated patients had a KRAS wild-type genotype. Most patients with a KRAS mutation (86%) were not treated with EGFR inhibitors. The interval between mCRC diagnosis and receipt of KRAS testing decreased from 26 months (2006) to 10 months (2009). CONCLUSIONS: These findings show rapid uptake and incorporation of this predictive biomarker into clinical oncology care. IMPACT: In this delivery setting, KRAS testing is widely used to guide treatment decisions with EGFR inhibitors in patients with mCRCs. An important future research goal is to evaluate utilization of KRAS testing in other delivery settings in the United States.