Markov model to forecast the change in prevalence of soil-transmitted helminths during a control programme: a case study in Vietnam.

BACKGROUND: A mathematical model based on the Markov methodology to predict the change in prevalence of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections during public health control activities is not available, but would be an extremely efficient planning tool. METHOD: We used the parasitological data collected during a deworming and iron supplementation programme for women of child-bearing age conducted in Vietnam between 2006 and 2011 to develop a Markov transition probability model. The transition probabilities were calculated from the observed changes in prevalence in the different classes of intensity for each STH species during the first year of intervention. The model was then developed and used to estimate the prevalence in year 2, 3, 4 and 5 for each STH species and for 'any STH infection'. The prevalence predicted by the model was then compared with the prevalence observed at different times during programme implementation. RESULTS: The comparison between the model-predicted prevalence and the observed prevalence proved a good fit of the model. CONCLUSIONS: We consider the Markov transition probability model to be a promising method of predicting changes in STH prevalence during control efforts. Further research to validate the model with observed data in different geographical and epidemiological settings is suggested to refine the prediction model.

Preventive chemotherapy and the fight against neglected tropical diseases.

Preventive chemotherapy is the public health strategy recommended by the WHO against a set of neglected tropical diseases that includes four groups of helminth infections (lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiasis) and one chlamydial (trachoma) infection. This article presents the characteristics of preventive chemotherapy interventions directed against each disease targeted by this strategy and provides an update on the status of their implementation worldwide.

Efficacy of mirazid in comparison with praziquantel in Egyptian Schistosoma mansoni-infected school children and households.

This trial investigated the anti-schistosomal activity of mirazid in comparison with that of praziquantel in Schistosoma mansoni-infected Egyptian patients. The sample population was composed of 1,131 individuals (459 school children and 672 household members). Screening for S. mansoni was conducted using the standard Kato Katz technique. Four slides from a single stool sample were examined before treatment, and four slides per sample from stool samples obtained on three consecutive days were examined post-treatment. All positive eligible subjects were randomly assigned into two groups, the first received mirazid at a dose of 300 mg/day for three consecutive days, and the second received praziquantel at a single dose of 40 mg/kg. All treated subjects were examined 4-6 weeks post-treatment. Mirazid showed low cure rates of 9.1% and 8.9% in S. mansoni-infected school children and household members, respectively, compared with cure rates of 62.5% and 79.7%, respectively, in those treated with praziquantel. Therefore, we do not recommend mirazid as an agent to control schistosomiasis.

Monitoring drug efficacy and early detection of drug resistance in human soil-transmitted nematodes: a pressing public health agenda for helminth control.

Control of soil-transmitted helminth infection and elimination of lymphatic filariasis by periodic chemotherapy increase drug pressure for possible occurrence of resistance against single dose anthelminthics. In veterinary practice, frequent treatment of closed populations has led to a serious problem of anthelminthic drug resistance which is now largely irreversible. Reduced efficacy of single dose drugs against nematodes of humans should be taken as early warnings to tackle the issue in due time. Research and development of sensitive tools for monitoring and early detection of drug resistance is urgently needed to sustain the benefits of helminth control programs gained so far. A concerted action with international partners and the creation of a network of scientists to address this issue is the next pressing public health issue for helminth control.