External Validation of a Digital Pathology-based Multimodal Artificial Intelligence Architecture in the NRG/RTOG 9902 Phase 3 Trial.

BACKGROUND: Accurate risk stratification is critical to guide management decisions in localized prostate cancer (PCa). Previously, we had developed and validated a multimodal artificial intelligence (MMAI) model generated from digital histopathology and clinical features. Here, we externally validate this model on men with high-risk or locally advanced PCa treated and followed as part of a phase 3 randomized control trial. OBJECTIVE: To externally validate the MMAI model on men with high-risk or locally advanced PCa treated and followed as part of a phase 3 randomized control trial. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Our validation cohort included 318 localized high-risk PCa patients from NRG/RTOG 9902 with available histopathology (337 [85%] of the 397 patients enrolled into the trial had available slides, of which 19 [5.6%] failed due to poor image quality). OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Two previously locked prognostic MMAI models were validated for their intended endpoint: distant metastasis (DM) and PCa-specific mortality (PCSM). Individual clinical factors and the number of National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) high-risk features served as comparators. Subdistribution hazard ratio (sHR) was reported per standard deviation increase of the score with corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) using Fine-Gray or Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: The DM and PCSM MMAI algorithms were significantly and independently associated with the risk of DM (sHR [95% CI] = 2.33 [1.60-3.38], p < 0.001) and PCSM, respectively (sHR [95% CI] = 3.54 [2.38-5.28], p < 0.001) when compared against other prognostic clinical factors and NCCN high-risk features. The lower 75% of patients by DM MMAI had estimated 5- and 10-yr DM rates of 4% and 7%, and the highest quartile had average 5- and 10-yr DM rates of 19% and 32%, respectively (p < 0.001). Similar results were observed for the PCSM MMAI algorithm. CONCLUSIONS: We externally validated the prognostic ability of MMAI models previously developed among men with localized high-risk disease. MMAI prognostic models further risk stratify beyond the clinical and pathological variables for DM and PCSM in a population of men already at a high risk for disease progression. This study provides evidence for consistent validation of our deep learning MMAI models to improve prognostication and enable more informed decision-making for patient care. PATIENT SUMMARY: This paper presents a novel approach using images from pathology slides along with clinical variables to validate artificial intelligence (computer-generated) prognostic models. When implemented, clinicians can offer a more personalized and tailored prognostic discussion for men with localized prostate cancer.

The Impact of Positron Emission Tomography Imaging and Tumor Molecular Profiling on Risk Stratification, Treatment Choice, and Oncological Outcomes of Patients with Primary or Relapsed Prostate Cancer: An International Collaborative Review of the Existing Literature.

CONTEXT: The clinical introduction of next-generation imaging methods and molecular biomarkers ("radiogenomics") has revolutionized the field of prostate cancer (PCa). While the clinical validity of these tests has thoroughly been vetted, their clinical utility remains a matter of investigation. OBJECTIVE: To systematically review the evidence to date on the impact of positron emission tomography (PET) imaging and tissue-based prognostic biomarkers, including Decipher, Prolaris, and Oncotype Dx, on the risk stratification, treatment choice, and oncological outcomes of men with newly diagnosed PCa or those with biochemical failure (BCF). EVIDENCE ACQUISITION: We performed a quantitative systematic review of the literature using the MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Web of Science databases (2010-2022) following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses statement guidelines. The validated Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2 scoring system was used to assess the risk of bias. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: A total of 148 studies (130 on PET and 18 on biomarkers) were included. In the primary PCa setting, prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) PET imaging was not useful in improving T staging, moderately useful in improving N staging, but consistently useful in improving M staging in patients with National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) unfavorable intermediate- to very-high-risk PCa. Its use led to a management change in 20-30% of patients. However, the effect of these treatment changes on survival outcomes was not clear. Similarly, biomarkers in the pretherapy primary PCa setting increased and decreased the risk, respectively, in 7-30% and 32-36% of NCCN low-risk and 31-65% and 4-15% of NCCN favorable intermediate-risk patients being considered for active surveillance. A change in management was noted in up to 65% of patients, with the change being in line with the molecular risk-based reclassification, but again, the impact of these changes on survival outcomes remained unclear. Notably, in the postsurgical primary PCa setting, biomarker-guided adjuvant radiation therapy (RT) was associated with improved oncological control: Δ↓ 2-yr BCF by 22% (level 2b). In the BCF setting, the data were more mature. PSMA PET was consistently useful in improving disease localization-Δ↑ detection for T, N, and M staging was 13-32%, 19-58%, and 9-29%, respectively. Between 29% and 73% of patients had a change in management. Most importantly, these management changes were associated with improved survival outcomes in three trials: Δ↑ 4-yr disease-free survival by 24.3%, Δ↑ 6-mo metastasis-free survival (MFS) by 46.7%, and Δ↑ androgen deprivation therapy-free survival by 8 mo in patients who received PET-concordant RT (level 1b-2b). Biomarker testing in these patients also appeared to be helpful in risk stratifying and guiding the use of early salvage RT (sRT) and concomitant hormonal therapy. Patients with high-genomic-risk scores benefitted from treatment intensification: Δ↑ 8-yr MFS by 20% with the use of early sRT and Δ↑ 12-yr MFS by 11.2% with the use of hormonal therapy alongside early sRT, while low-genomic-risk score patients did equally well with initial conservative management (level 3). CONCLUSIONS: Both PSMA PET imaging and tumor molecular profiling provide actionable information in the management of men with primary PCa and those with BCF. Emerging data suggest that radiogenomics-guided treatments translate into direct survival benefits for patients, however, additional prospective data are awaited. PATIENT SUMMARY: In this review, we evaluated the utility of prostate-specific membrane antigen positron emission tomography and tumor molecular profiling in guiding the care of men with prostate cancer (PCa). We found that these tests augmented risk stratification, altered management, and improved cancer control in men with a new diagnosis of PCa or for those experiencing a relapse.

Five-Year Patient-Reported Outcomes in NRG Oncology RTOG 0938, Evaluating Two Ultrahypofractionated Regimens for Prostate Cancer.

PURPOSE: There is considerable interest in very short (ultrahypofractionated) radiation therapy regimens to treat prostate cancer based on potential radiobiological advantages, patient convenience, and resource allocation benefits. Our objective is to demonstrate that detectable changes in health-related quality of life measured by the bowel and urinary domains of the Expanded Prostate Cancer Index Composite (EPIC-50) were not substantially worse than baseline scores. METHODS AND MATERIALS: NRG Oncology's RTOG 0938 is a nonblinded randomized phase 2 study of National Comprehensive Cancer Network low-risk prostate cancer in which each arm is compared with a historical control. Patients were randomized to 5 fractions (7.25 Gy in 2 week and a day [twice a week]) or 12 fractions (4.3Gy in 2.5 weeks [5 times a week]). Secondary objectives assessed patient-reported toxicity at 5 years using the EPIC. Chi-square tests were used to assess the proportion of patients with a deterioration from baseline of >5 points for bowel, >2 points for urinary, and >11 points for sexual score. RESULTS: The study enrolled 127 patients to 5 fractions (121 eligible) and 128 patients to 12 fractions (125 eligible). The median follow-up for all patients at the time of analysis was 5.38 years. The 5-year frequency for >5 point change in bowel score were 38.4% (P = .27) and 23.4% (P = 0.98) for 5 and 12 fractions, respectively. The 5-year frequencies for >2 point change in urinary score were 46.6% (P = .15) and 36.4% (P = .70) for 5 and 12 fractions, respectively. For 5 fractions, 49.3% (P = .007) of patients had a drop in 5-year EPIC-50 sexual score of ≥11 points; for 12 fractions, 54% (P < .001) of patients had a drop in 5-year EPIC-50 sexual score of ≥11 points. Disease-free survival at 5 years is 89.6% (95% CI: 84.0-95.2) in the 5-fraction arm and 92.3% (95% CI: 87.4-97.1) in the 12-fraction arm. There was no late grade 4 or 5 treatment-related urinary or bowel toxicity. CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms that, based on long-term changes in bowel and urinary domains and toxicity, the 5- and 12-fraction regimens are well tolerated. These ultrahypofractionated approaches need to be compared with current standard radiation therapy regimens.

External Beam Radiation Therapy With or Without Brachytherapy Boost in Men With Very-High-Risk Prostate Cancer: A Large Multicenter International Consortium Analysis.

PURPOSE: Very-high-risk (VHR) prostate cancer (PC) is an aggressive subgroup with high risk of distant disease progression. Systemic treatment intensification with abiraterone or docetaxel reduces PC-specific mortality (PCSM) and distant metastasis (DM) in men receiving external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) with androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). Whether prostate-directed treatment intensification with the addition of brachytherapy (BT) boost to EBRT with ADT improves outcomes in this group is unclear. METHODS AND MATERIALS: This cohort study from 16 centers across 4 countries included men with VHR PC treated with either dose-escalated EBRT with ≥24 months of ADT or EBRT + BT boost with ≥12 months of ADT. VHR was defined by National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) criteria (clinical T3b-4, primary Gleason pattern 5, or ≥2 NCCN high-risk features), and results were corroborated in a subgroup of men who met Systemic Therapy in Advancing or Metastatic Prostate Cancer: Evaluation of Drug Efficacy (STAMPEDE) trials inclusion criteria (≥2 of the following: clinical T3-4, Gleason 8-10, or PSA ≥40 ng/mL). PCSM and DM between EBRT and EBRT + BT were compared using inverse probability of treatment weight-adjusted Fine-Gray competing risk regression. RESULTS: Among the entire cohort, 270 underwent EBRT and 101 EBRT + BT. After a median follow-up of 7.8 years, 6.7% and 5.9% of men died of PC and 16.3% and 9.9% had DM after EBRT and EBRT + BT, respectively. There was no significant difference in PCSM (sHR, 1.47 [95% CI, 0.57-3.75]; P = .42) or DM (sHR, 0.72, [95% CI, 0.30-1.71]; P = .45) between EBRT + BT and EBRT. Results were similar within the STAMPEDE-defined VHR subgroup (PCSM: sHR, 1.67 [95% CI, 0.48-5.81]; P = .42; DM: sHR, 0.56 [95% CI, 0.15-2.04]; P = .38). CONCLUSIONS: In this VHR PC cohort, no difference in clinically meaningful outcomes was observed between EBRT alone with ≥24 months of ADT compared with EBRT + BT with ≥12 months of ADT. Comparative analyses in men treated with intensified systemic therapy are warranted.

Local Failure Events in Prostate Cancer Treated with Radiotherapy: A Pooled Analysis of 18 Randomized Trials from the Meta-analysis of Randomized Trials in Cancer of the Prostate Consortium (LEVIATHAN).

CONTEXT: The prognostic importance of local failure after definitive radiotherapy (RT) in National Comprehensive Cancer Network intermediate- and high-risk prostate cancer (PCa) patients remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the prognostic impact of local failure and the kinetics of distant metastasis following RT. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION: A pooled analysis was performed on individual patient data of 12 533 PCa (6288 high-risk and 6245 intermediate-risk) patients enrolled in 18 randomized trials (conducted between 1985 and 2015) within the Meta-analysis of Randomized Trials in Cancer of the Prostate Consortium. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard (PH) models were developed to evaluate the relationship between overall survival (OS), PCa-specific survival (PCSS), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS), and local failure as a time-dependent covariate. Markov PH models were developed to evaluate the impact of specific transition states. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: The median follow-up was 11 yr. There were 795 (13%) local failure events and 1288 (21%) distant metastases for high-risk patients and 449 (7.2%) and 451 (7.2%) for intermediate-risk patients, respectively. For both groups, 81% of distant metastases developed from a clinically relapse-free state (cRF state). Local failure was significantly associated with OS (hazard ratio [HR] 1.17, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06-1.30), PCSS (HR 2.02, 95% CI 1.75-2.33), and DMFS (HR 1.94, 95% CI 1.75-2.15, p < 0.01 for all) in high-risk patients. Local failure was also significantly associated with DMFS (HR 1.57, 95% CI 1.36-1.81) but not with OS in intermediate-risk patients. Patients without local failure had a significantly lower HR of transitioning to a PCa-specific death state than those who had local failure (HR 0.32, 95% CI 0.21-0.50, p < 0.001). At later time points, more distant metastases emerged after a local failure event for both groups. CONCLUSIONS: Local failure is an independent prognosticator of OS, PCSS, and DMFS in high-risk and of DMFS in intermediate-risk PCa. Distant metastasis predominantly developed from the cRF state, underscoring the importance of addressing occult microscopic disease. However a "second wave" of distant metastases occurs subsequent to local failure events, and optimization of local control may reduce the risk of distant metastasis. PATIENT SUMMARY: Among men receiving definitive radiation therapy for high- and intermediate-risk prostate cancer, about 10% experience local recurrence, and they are at significantly increased risks of further disease progression. About 80% of patients who develop distant metastasis do not have a detectable local recurrence preceding it.

Androgen deprivation therapy use and duration with definitive radiotherapy for localised prostate cancer: an individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Randomised trials have investigated various androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) intensification strategies in men receiving radiotherapy for the treatment of prostate cancer. This individual patient data meta-analysis of relevant randomised trials aimed to quantify the benefit of these interventions in aggregate and in clinically relevant subgroups. METHODS: For this meta-analysis, we performed a systematic literature search in MEDLINE, Embase, trial registries, the Web of Science, Scopus, and conference proceedings to identify trials with results published in English between Jan 1, 1962, and Dec 30, 2020. Multicentre randomised trials were eligible if they evaluated the use or prolongation of ADT (or both) in men with localised prostate cancer receiving definitive radiotherapy, reported or collected distant metastasis and survival data, and used ADT for a protocol-defined finite duration. The Meta-Analysis of Randomized trials in Cancer of the Prostate (MARCAP) Consortium was accessed to obtain individual patient data from randomised trials. The primary outcome was metastasis-free survival. Hazard ratios (HRs) were obtained through stratified Cox models for ADT use (radiotherapy alone vs radiotherapy plus ADT), neoadjuvant ADT extension (ie, extension of total ADT duration in the neoadjuvant setting from 3-4 months to 6-9 months), and adjuvant ADT prolongation (ie, prolongation of total ADT duration in the adjuvant setting from 4-6 months to 18-36 months). Formal interaction tests between interventions and metastasis-free survival were done for prespecified subgroups defined by age, National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) risk group, and radiotherapy dose. This meta-analysis is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42021236855. FINDINGS: Our search returned 12 eligible trials that provided individual patient data (10 853 patients) with a median follow-up of 11·4 years (IQR 9·0-15·0). The addition of ADT to radiotherapy significantly improved metastasis-free survival (HR 0·83 [95% CI 0·77-0·89], p<0·0001), as did adjuvant ADT prolongation (0·84 [0·78-0·91], p<0·0001), but neoadjuvant ADT extension did not (0·95 [0·83-1·09], p=0·50). Treatment effects were similar irrespective of radiotherapy dose, patient age, or NCCN risk group. INTERPRETATION: Our findings provide the strongest level of evidence so far to the magnitude of the benefit of ADT treatment intensification with radiotherapy for men with localised prostate cancer. Adding ADT and prolonging the portion of ADT that follows radiotherapy is associated with improved metastasis-free survival in men, regardless of risk group, age, and radiotherapy dose delivered; however, the magnitude of the benefit could vary and shared decision making with patients is recommended. FUNDING: University Hospitals Seidman Cancer Center, Prostate Cancer Foundation, and the American Society for Radiation Oncology.

Development and Validation of a Clinical Prognostic Stage Group System for Nonmetastatic Prostate Cancer Using Disease-Specific Mortality Results From the International Staging Collaboration for Cancer of the Prostate.

Importance: In 2016, the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) established criteria to evaluate prediction models for staging. No localized prostate cancer models were endorsed by the Precision Medicine Core committee, and 8th edition staging was based on expert consensus. Objective: To develop and validate a pretreatment clinical prognostic stage group system for nonmetastatic prostate cancer. Design, Setting, and Participants: This multinational cohort study included 7 centers from the United States, Canada, and Europe, the Shared Equal Access Regional Cancer Hospital (SEARCH) Veterans Affairs Medical Centers collaborative (5 centers), and the Cancer of the Prostate Strategic Urologic Research Endeavor (CaPSURE) registry (43 centers) (the STAR-CAP cohort). Patients with cT1-4N0-1M0 prostate adenocarcinoma treated from January 1, 1992, to December 31, 2013 (follow-up completed December 31, 2017). The STAR-CAP cohort was randomly divided into training and validation data sets; statisticians were blinded to the validation data until the model was locked. A Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) cohort was used as a second validation set. Analysis was performed from January 1, 2018, to November 30, 2019. Exposures: Curative intent radical prostatectomy (RP) or radiotherapy with or without androgen deprivation therapy. Main Outcomes and Measures: Prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM). Based on a competing-risk regression model, a points-based Score staging system was developed. Model discrimination (C index), calibration, and overall performance were assessed in the validation cohorts. Results: Of 19 684 patients included in the analysis (median age, 64.0 [interquartile range (IQR), 59.0-70.0] years), 12 421 were treated with RP and 7263 with radiotherapy. Median follow-up was 71.8 (IQR, 34.3-124.3) months; 4078 (20.7%) were followed up for at least 10 years. Age, T category, N category, Gleason grade, pretreatment serum prostate-specific antigen level, and the percentage of positive core biopsy results among biopsies performed were included as variables. In the validation set, predicted 10-year PCSM for the 9 Score groups ranged from 0.3% to 40.0%. The 10-year C index (0.796; 95% CI, 0.760-0.828) exceeded that of the AJCC 8th edition (0.757; 95% CI, 0.719-0.792), which was improved across age, race, and treatment modality and within the SEER validation cohort. The Score system performed similarly to individualized random survival forest and interaction models and outperformed National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) and Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) risk grouping 3- and 4-tier classification systems (10-year C index for NCCN 3-tier, 0.729; for NCCN 4-tier, 0.746; for Score, 0.794) as well as CAPRA (10-year C index for CAPRA, 0.760; for Score, 0.782). Conclusions and Relevance: Using a large, diverse international cohort treated with standard curative treatment options, a proposed AJCC-compliant clinical prognostic stage group system for prostate cancer has been developed. This system may allow consistency of reporting and interpretation of results and clinical trial design.

Performance of clinicopathologic models in men with high risk localized prostate cancer: impact of a 22-gene genomic classifier.

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer exhibits biological and clinical heterogeneity even within established clinico-pathologic risk groups. The Decipher genomic classifier (GC) is a validated method to further risk-stratify disease in patients with prostate cancer, but its performance solely within National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) high-risk disease has not been undertaken to date. METHODS: A multi-institutional retrospective study of 405 men with high-risk prostate cancer who underwent primary treatment with radical prostatectomy (RP) or radiation therapy (RT) with androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT) at 11 centers from 1995 to 2005 was performed. Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine the hazard ratios (HR) for the development of metastatic disease based on clinico-pathologic variables, risk groups, and GC score. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was determined for regression models without and with the GC score. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 82 months, 104 patients (26%) developed metastatic disease. On univariable analysis, increasing GC score was significantly associated with metastatic disease ([HR]: 1.34 per 0.1 unit increase, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.19-1.50, p < 0.001), while age, serum PSA, biopsy GG, and clinical T-stage were not (all p > 0.05). On multivariable analysis, GC score (HR: 1.33 per 0.1 unit increase, 95% CI: 1.19-1.48, p < 0.001) and GC high-risk (vs low-risk, HR: 2.95, 95% CI: 1.79-4.87, p < 0.001) were significantly associated with metastasis. The addition of GC score to regression models based on NCCN risk group improved model AUC from 0.46 to 0.67, and CAPRA from 0.59 to 0.71. CONCLUSIONS: Among men with high-risk prostate cancer, conventional clinico-pathologic data had poor discrimination to risk stratify development of metastatic disease. GC score was a significant and independent predictor of metastasis and may help identify men best suited for treatment intensification/de-escalation.

Decipher identifies men with otherwise clinically favorable-intermediate risk disease who may not be good candidates for active surveillance.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to validate Decipher to predict adverse pathology (AP) at radical prostatectomy (RP) in men with National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) favorable-intermediate risk (F-IR) prostate cancer (PCa), and to better select F-IR candidates for active surveillance (AS). METHODS: In all, 647 patients diagnosed with NCCN very low/low risk (VL/LR) or F-IR prostate cancer were identified from a multi-institutional PCa biopsy database; all underwent RP with complete postoperative clinicopathological information and Decipher genomic risk scores. The performance of all risk assessment tools was evaluated using logistic regression model for the endpoint of AP, defined as grade group 3-5, pT3b or higher, or lymph node invasion. RESULTS: The median age was 61 years (interquartile range 56-66) for 220 patients with NCCN F-IR disease, 53% classified as low-risk by Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA 0-2) and 47% as intermediate-risk (CAPRA 3-5). Decipher classified 79%, 13% and 8% of men as low-, intermediate- and high-risk with 13%, 10%, and 41% rate of AP, respectively. Decipher was an independent predictor of AP with an odds ratio of 1.34 per 0.1 unit increased (p value = 0.002) and remained significant when adjusting by CAPRA. Notably, F-IR with Decipher low or intermediate score did not associate with significantly higher odds of AP compared to VL/LR. CONCLUSIONS: NCCN risk groups, including F-IR, are highly heterogeneous and should be replaced with multivariable risk-stratification. In particular, incorporating Decipher may be useful for safely expanding the use of AS in this patient population.

Prostate cancer incidence across stage, NCCN risk groups, and age before and after USPSTF Grade D recommendations against prostate-specific antigen screening in 2012.

BACKGROUND: We sought to determine the extent to which US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) 2012 Grade D recommendations against prostate-specific antigen screening may have impacted recent prostate cancer disease incidence patterns in the United States across stage, National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) risk groups, and age groups. METHODS: SEER*Stat version 8.3.4 was used to calculate annual prostate cancer incidence rates from 2010 to 2015 for men aged ≥50 years according to American Joint Committee on Cancer stage at diagnosis (localized vs metastatic), NCCN risk group (low vs unfavorable [intermediate or high-risk]), and age group (50-74 years vs ≥75 years). Age-adjusted incidences per 100,000 persons with corresponding year-by-year incidence ratios (IRs) were calculated using the 2000 US Census population. RESULTS: From 2010 to 2015, the incidence (per 100,000 persons) of localized prostate cancer decreased from 195.4 to 131.9 (Ptrend  < .001) and from 189.0 to 123.4 (Ptrend  < .001) among men aged 50-74 and ≥75 years, respectively. The largest relative year-by-year decline occurred between 2011 and 2012 in NCCN low-risk disease (IR, 0.77 [0.75-0.79, P < .0001] and IR 0.68 [0.62-0.74, P < .0001] for men aged 50-74 and ≥75 years, respectively). From 2010-2015, the incidence of metastatic disease increased from 6.2 to 7.1 (Ptrend  < .001) and from 16.8 to 22.6 (Ptrend  < .001) among men aged 50-74 and ≥75 years, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This report illustrates recent prostate cancer "reverse migration" away from indolent disease and toward more aggressive disease beginning in 2012. The incidence of localized disease declined across age groups from 2012 to 2015, with the greatest relative declines occurring in low-risk disease. Additionally, the incidence of distant metastatic disease increased gradually throughout the study period.

Genomic Risk Predicts Molecular Imaging-detected Metastatic Nodal Disease in Prostate Cancer.

BACKGROUND: The Decipher genomic classifier (GC) is increasingly being used to determine metastasis risk in men with localized prostate cancer (PCa). Whether GCs predict for the presence of occult metastatic disease at presentation or subsequent metastatic progression is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To determine if GC scores predict extraprostatic 68Ga prostate-specific membrane antigen (68Ga-PSMA-11) positron emission tomography (PET) positivity at presentation. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Between December 2015 and September 2018, 91 PCa patients with both GC scores and pretreatment 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET scans were identified. Risk stratification was performed using the National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN), Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA), and GC scores. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Logistic regression was used to identify factors correlated with PSMA-positive disease. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: The NCCN criteria identified 23 (25.3%) and 68 patients (74.7%) as intermediate and high risk, while CAPRA scores revealed 28 (30.8%) and 63 (69.2%) as low/intermediate and high risk, respectively. By contrast, only 45 patients (49.4%) had high-risk GC scores. PSMA-avid pelvic nodal involvement was identified in 27 patients (29.7%). Higher GC score was significantly associated with pelvic nodal involvement (odds ratio [OR] 1.38 per 0.1 units; p=0.009) and any PSMA-avid nodal involvement (pelvic or distant; OR 1.40 per 0.1 units; p=0.007). However, higher GC score was not significantly associated with PSMA-avid osseous metastases (OR 1.11 per 0.1 units; p=0.50). Limitations include selection bias for patients able to receive both tests and the sample size. CONCLUSIONS: Each 0.1-unit increase in GC score was associated with an approximate 40% increase in the odds of PSMA-avid lymph node involvement. These data suggest that patients with GC high risk might benefit from more nodal imaging and treatment intensification, potentially via pelvic nodal dissection, pelvic nodal irradiation, and/or the addition of chemohormonal agents. PATIENT SUMMARY: Patients with higher genomic classifier scores were found to have more metastatic lymph node involvement on prostate-specific membrane antigen imaging.

Genomic Validation of 3-Tiered Clinical Subclassification of High-Risk Prostate Cancer.

PURPOSE: Recent data and National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) guidelines suggest that high-risk prostate cancer (cT3-4, Gleason score ≥8, or prostate-specific antigen [PSA] >20 ng/mL) is a heterogenous group in terms of long-term patient outcomes. We sought to determine whether subclassification of high-risk prostate cancer based on clinical factors correlates with genomic markers of risk. METHODS AND MATERIALS: We identified 3220 patients with NCCN unfavorable intermediate-risk (n = 2000) or high-risk (n = 1220) prostate cancer from a prospective multi-institutional registry cohort. We defined the following subclassification of high-risk prostate cancer based on previously published data: favorable high risk (cT1c, Gleason 6, and PSA >20 ng/mL or cT1c, Gleason 4 + 4 = 8, PSA <10 ng/mL); very high risk (cT3b-T4 or primary Gleason pattern 5); and standard high risk (all others with cT3a, Gleason score ≥8, or PSA >20 ng/mL). We used a set of 33 previously developed genomic classifiers, including Decipher, to determine whether high-risk genomic features correlate with clinical subclasses of high-risk prostate cancer. RESULTS: Among those with favorable high-risk, standard high-risk, and very high-risk prostate cancer, 50.4%, 64.2%, and 81.6% had a high-risk Decipher score, respectively (P < .001). Among 32 other genomic signatures, 29 had a similar trend of increasing risk scores across the 3 subclasses of high-risk disease (P < .05 after correction for multiple hypothesis testing). Patients in the 3 subclasses of high-risk disease had a median of 4, 6, and 13 high-risk signatures, respectively. In comparison, among those with unfavorable intermediate-risk prostate cancer, 38.2% had a high-risk Decipher score, and the median number of high-risk signatures was 3. CONCLUSIONS: Although NCCN guidelines currently use a 2-tiered system for high-risk prostate cancer, genomic markers of risk correlate with the clinically validated subclassification of high-risk prostate cancer into favorable high-risk, standard high-risk, and very high-risk disease, further confirming the prognostic utility of this 3-tiered stratification.

Location of Recurrence by Gallium-68 PSMA-11 PET Scan in Prostate Cancer Patients Eligible for Salvage Radiotherapy.

OBJECTIVE: To identify locations of recurrence after radical prostatectomy (RP) with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) <2 by Gallium-68 prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA)-11 Positron Emission Tomography (PET) imaging, and to determine whether standard nodal radiation fields would cover the location of prostate cancer recurrence. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed a retrospective review of patients with PSMA-PET imaging for biochemical recurrence following RP with PSA ≤2.0 ng/mL and assessed if the recurrent disease was within standard radiation target volumes. We compared patient and clinical variables between men with recurrences covered by standard salvage radiation fields and those with recurrences outside of standard fields. RESULTS: We identified 125 patients for study inclusion. The median PSA at imaging was 0.40 ng/mL (interquartile range 0.28-0.63). PSMA-avid disease was found in 66 patients (53%). Of these, 25 patients (38%) had PSMA-avid lesions found outside of the pelvis, 33 (50%) had lesions confined to the pelvic lymph nodes and prostate bed, and 8 (12%) men had PSMA-avid recurrence only in the prostate bed. Salvage radiation including standard Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy (IMRT) pelvic nodal volumes would not cover PSMA-avid nodal disease in 38 men (30%). PSA at the time of imaging was statistically associated with having PSMA-avid disease outside of standard nodal fields (P <.01). CONCLUSION: The 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET detects disease in a majority of patients with PSA ≤2.0 following RP. Nearly one-third of men had PSMA-avid disease that would be missed by standard radiation fields. This imaging modality may dramatically impact the design and use of post-RP salvage radiotherapy.

Assessment of 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET Accuracy in Localizing Recurrent Prostate Cancer: A Prospective Single-Arm Clinical Trial.

IMPORTANCE: In retrospective studies, 68Ga-PSMA-11 positron emission tomographic (PET) imaging improves detection of biochemically recurrent prostate cancer compared with conventional imaging. OBJECTIVE: To assess 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET accuracy in a prospective multicenter trial. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In this single-arm prospective trial conducted at University of California, San Francisco and University of California, Los Angeles, 635 patients with biochemically recurrent prostate cancer after prostatectomy (n = 262, 41%), radiation therapy (n = 169, 27%), or both (n = 204, 32%) underwent 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET. Presence of prostate cancer was recorded by 3 blinded readers on a per-patient and per-region base. Lesions were validated by histopathologic analysis and a composite reference standard. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Endpoints were positive predictive value (PPV), detection rate, interreader reproducibility, and safety. RESULTS: A total of 635 men were enrolled with a median age of 69 years (range, 44-95 years). On a per-patient basis, PPV was 0.84 (95% CI, 0.75-0.90) by histopathologic validation (primary endpoint, n = 87) and 0.92 (95% CI, 0.88-0.95) by the composite reference standard (n = 217). 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET localized recurrent prostate cancer in 475 of 635 (75%) patients; detection rates significantly increased with prostate-specific antigen (PSA): 38% for <0.5 ng/mL (n = 136), 57% for 0.5 to <1.0 ng/mL (n = 79), 84% for 1.0 to <2.0 ng/mL (n = 89), 86% for 2.0 to <5.0 ng/mL (n = 158), and 97% for ≥5.0 ng/mL (n = 173, P < .001). Interreader reproducibility was substantial (Fleiss κ, 0.65-0.78). There were no serious adverse events associated with 68Ga-PSMA-11 administration. PET-directed focal therapy alone led to a PSA drop of 50% or more in 31 of 39 (80%) patients. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Using blinded reads and independent lesion validation, we establish high PPV for 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET, detection rate and interreader agreement for localization of recurrent prostate cancer. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov identifiers: NCT02940262 and NCT03353740.

Circulating Tumor Cells as a Predictor of Treatment Response in Clinically Localized Prostate Cancer.

PURPOSE: Using nonenrichment-based, potentially more sensitive Epic Sciences circulating tumor cell (CTC) platform, we sought to detect and characterize CTCs in untreated, high-risk localized prostate cancer and to evaluate their clinical implication. METHODS: Between 2012 and 2015, blood samples were prospectively collected from patients with National Comprehensive Cancer Network high-risk localized prostate cancer undergoing either radiotherapy (XRT) plus androgen deprivation therapy or radical prostatectomy (RP) with curative intent. Samples were analyzed with the Epic Sciences platform with 4J,6-diamidino-2-phenylindole, CD45, cytokeratin (CK), and androgen receptor (AR) N-terminal staining. CTC counts were correlated with biochemical recurrence (BCR). RESULTS: A diversity of CTC subtypes, including CK-positive, CK-negative, AR-positive, and CTC clusters, were observed in 73.3% (33 of 45) of patients with evaluable data. The median follow-up was 14.2 months (range, 0.5 to 43.7 months). BCR occurred more frequently in the RP group than XRT (15 of 26 v one of 19), with most patients in the XRT group continuing to receive androgen deprivation therapy. A higher proportion of metastatic events were observed in the RP group (five of 26 v one of 19). In the RP group, BCR and development of metastases were associated with a higher total number of CTCs, AR-positive CTCs, and CTC phenotypic heterogeneity. One patient who developed BCR and metastases quickly after RP had diverse phenotypical CTC subtypes, and single-cell genomic analyses of all detectable CTCs confirmed common prostate cancer copy number alterations and PTEN loss. CONCLUSION: CTCs can be identified in most patients with high-risk localized prostate cancer before definitive therapy using the Epic Sciences platform. If confirmed in a larger cohort with longer follow-up, phenotypic and genomic characterization of CTCs pretherapy may provide an additional means of risk stratifying patients with newly diagnosed high-risk disease and potentially help identify patients who could require multimodal therapy.

Impact of Staging 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET Scans on Radiation Treatment Plansin Patients With Prostate Cancer.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of staging 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET imaging on radiotherapy (RT) dose and volumes in patients with prostate cancer. METHODS: Forty-five patients (89% high or very high risk by NCCN criteria) who underwent 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET imaging prior to definitive treatment for prostate cancer between December 2015 and December 2016 were included. Locations of 68Ga-PSMA-11-avid lesions were compared to Radiation Therapy Oncology Group consensus pelvic nodal volumes (clinical target volume [CTV]); coverage of lesions outside the consensus CTV was considered a major change, while dose-escalation to lesions within the consensus CTV was considered a minor change. RESULTS: All patients had 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET uptake in the prostate. Twenty-five patients (56%) had N1/M1a disease on 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET scan, of whom 21 (47%) were previously N0. Six patients (13%) had bone metastases on 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET scan, of whom 4 had prior negative bone scans. Eight patients (18%) had lymph node metastases outside the consensus CTV. Twelve patients (27%) received a RT boost to nodes within the consensus CTV. Six patients (13%) had limited bone metastases treated with focal RT. Overall PSMA PET imaging resulted in major and/or minor changes to RT plans in 24 patients (53%). CONCLUSION: 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET imaging resulted in RT changes in 53% of patients. Prospective investigation is needed to evaluate the clinical benefit of RT changes based on staging 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET imaging.

Risk SNP-Mediated Promoter-Enhancer Switching Drives Prostate Cancer through lncRNA PCAT19.

The prostate cancer (PCa) risk-associated SNP rs11672691 is positively associated with aggressive disease at diagnosis. We showed that rs11672691 maps to the promoter of a short isoform of long noncoding RNA PCAT19 (PCAT19-short), which is in the third intron of the long isoform (PCAT19-long). The risk variant is associated with decreased and increased levels of PCAT19-short and PCAT19-long, respectively. Mechanistically, the risk SNP region is bifunctional with both promoter and enhancer activity. The risk variants of rs11672691 and its LD SNP rs887391 decrease binding of transcription factors NKX3.1 and YY1 to the promoter of PCAT19-short, resulting in weaker promoter but stronger enhancer activity that subsequently activates PCAT19-long. PCAT19-long interacts with HNRNPAB to activate a subset of cell-cycle genes associated with PCa progression, thereby promoting PCa tumor growth and metastasis. Taken together, these findings reveal a risk SNP-mediated promoter-enhancer switching mechanism underlying both initiation and progression of aggressive PCa.

Patient-Reported Sexual Aid Utilization and Efficacy After Radiation Therapy for Localized Prostate Cancer.

PURPOSE: To report sexual health-related quality of life outcomes and utilization and efficacy of sexual aids in a contemporary cohort of patients treated for localized prostate cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Between 2008 and 2013, 471 consecutive men with localized prostate cancer were treated on 2 institutional protocols (NCT01766492, NCT01618851) or on a prospective institutional registry with patient-reported health-related quality of life. All patients were treated with ultra-hypofractionated radiation therapy. Erectile function (EF) was defined as "firm enough for intercourse" with or without aids per Expanded Prostate Cancer Index Composite-26 (n = 222 at baseline); results apply to this cohort unless specifically noted. Sexual aid utilization and efficacy were patient reported. Multivariable analysis of EF was performed. RESULTS: Median follow-up was 60 months, median age was 67 years, and 70% had intermediate- or high-risk disease per National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines. At 24 and 60 months, questionnaire response rates were 86% and 67%, and EF was retained in 53% and 41%, respectively. Baseline sexual aid utilization was 37% (n = 82) and was associated with lower 24-month EF preservation on multivariable analysis (adjusted odds ratio 0.49, 95% confidence interval 0.26-0.92). By 60 months, 70% of men had tried aids. Of those who found aids helpful at baseline, 84% to 89% reported continued benefit at 24 to 60 months. Among aid-naïve patients, efficacy was 80% with first-time use within 12 months and 70% more than 12 months after radiation therapy (P = .02). Among men who developed erectile dysfunction but found sexual aids helpful, 25% were not current users at 60 months. CONCLUSIONS: One-third of men used sexual aids at baseline, which doubled by 5 years after radiation therapy. Self-reported efficacy was high and sustained. Despite significant declines in EF, a number of men reported helpfulness of aids but were not active users. Future study is required to understand drivers of aid utilization to optimize posttreatment sexual function.

Development and Validation of a Novel Integrated Clinical-Genomic Risk Group Classification for Localized Prostate Cancer.

Purpose It is clinically challenging to integrate genomic-classifier results that report a numeric risk of recurrence into treatment recommendations for localized prostate cancer, which are founded in the framework of risk groups. We aimed to develop a novel clinical-genomic risk grouping system that can readily be incorporated into treatment guidelines for localized prostate cancer. Materials and Methods Two multicenter cohorts (n = 991) were used for training and validation of the clinical-genomic risk groups, and two additional cohorts (n = 5,937) were used for reclassification analyses. Competing risks analysis was used to estimate the risk of distant metastasis. Time-dependent c-indices were constructed to compare clinicopathologic risk models with the clinical-genomic risk groups. Results With a median follow-up of 8 years for patients in the training cohort, 10-year distant metastasis rates for National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) low, favorable-intermediate, unfavorable-intermediate, and high-risk were 7.3%, 9.2%, 38.0%, and 39.5%, respectively. In contrast, the three-tier clinical-genomic risk groups had 10-year distant metastasis rates of 3.5%, 29.4%, and 54.6%, for low-, intermediate-, and high-risk, respectively, which were consistent in the validation cohort (0%, 25.9%, and 55.2%, respectively). C-indices for the clinical-genomic risk grouping system (0.84; 95% CI, 0.61 to 0.93) were improved over NCCN (0.73; 95% CI, 0.60 to 0.86) and Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (0.74; 95% CI, 0.65 to 0.84), and 30% of patients using NCCN low/intermediate/high would be reclassified by the new three-tier system and 67% of patients would be reclassified from NCCN six-tier (very-low- to very-high-risk) by the new six-tier system. Conclusion A commercially available genomic classifier in combination with standard clinicopathologic variables can generate a simple-to-use clinical-genomic risk grouping that more accurately identifies patients at low, intermediate, and high risk for metastasis and can be easily incorporated into current guidelines to better risk-stratify patients.

Ability of a Genomic Classifier to Predict Metastasis and Prostate Cancer-specific Mortality after Radiation or Surgery based on Needle Biopsy Specimens.

BACKGROUND: Decipher is a validated genomic classifier developed to determine the biological potential for metastasis after radical prostatectomy (RP). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the ability of biopsy Decipher to predict metastasis and Prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM) in primarily intermediate- to high-risk patients treated with RP or radiation therapy (RT). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Two hundred and thirty-five patients treated with either RP (n=105) or RT±androgen deprivation therapy (n=130) with available genomic expression profiles generated from diagnostic biopsy specimens from seven tertiary referral centers. The highest-grade core was sampled and Decipher was calculated based on a locked random forest model. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Metastasis and PCSM were the primary and secondary outcomes of the study, respectively. Cox analysis and c-index were used to evaluate the performance of Decipher. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: With a median follow-up of 6 yr among censored patients, 34 patients developed metastases and 11 died of prostate cancer. On multivariable analysis, biopsy Decipher remained a significant predictor of metastasis (hazard ratio: 1.37 per 10% increase in score, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.06-1.78, p=0.018) after adjusting for clinical variables. For predicting metastasis 5-yr post-biopsy, Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment score had a c-index of 0.60 (95% CI: 0.50-0.69), while Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment plus biopsy Decipher had a c-index of 0.71 (95% CI: 0.60-0.82). National Comprehensive Cancer Network risk group had a c-index of 0.66 (95% CI: 0.53-0.77), while National Comprehensive Cancer Network plus biopsy Decipher had a c-index of 0.74 (95% CI: 0.66-0.82). Biopsy Decipher was a significant predictor of PCSM (hazard ratio: 1.57 per 10% increase in score, 95% CI: 1.03-2.48, p=0.037), with a 5-yr PCSM rate of 0%, 0%, and 9.4% for Decipher low, intermediate, and high, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Biopsy Decipher predicted metastasis and PCSM from diagnostic biopsy specimens of primarily intermediate- and high-risk men treated with first-line RT or RP. PATIENT SUMMARY: Biopsy Decipher predicted metastasis and prostate cancer-specific mortality risk from diagnostic biopsy specimens.