Are NCCN Resource-Stratified Guidelines for Breast Cancer Systemic Therapy Achievable? A Population-Based Study of Global Need and Economic Impact.

PURPOSE: Resource-stratified guidelines (RSG) for cancer provide a hierarchy of interventions, based on resource availability. We quantify treatment need and cost if National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) RSGs for breast cancer (BC) are adopted globally. METHODS: We developed decision trees for first-course systemic therapy, merged with SEER and Global Cancer Observatory 2018 incidence data to estimate treatment need and cost if NCCN RSG are implemented globally based on country-level income. Simulations were used to quantify need and cost of globally scaling up services to Maximal. RESULTS: Based on NCCN RSG, first-course chemotherapy is indicated in 0% (Basic), 87% (Core), and 86% (Enhanced) but declined to 50% (Maximal) because of incorporation of genomic profiling. First-course endocrine therapy (ET) is indicated in 80% in all settings. In 2018, treatment need was 1.4 million people for chemotherapy, 183,943 for human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) therapies and 1.6 million for ET. The cost per person for chemotherapy or HER2 or immunotherapy increased by 17-fold from Core to Maximal ($1,278-$22,313 Australian dollars [AUD]). The cost of ET per person rose eight-fold from Basic to Maximal ($1,236-$9,809 AUD). If all patients with BC globally were treated with Maximal resources, the need for chemotherapy would decline by 28%, whereas cost of first-course treatment would rise by 1.8-fold ($21-$37 billion AUD) because of more costly therapies. CONCLUSION: NCCN RSGs for BC could result in chemotherapy overtreatment in Core and Enhanced settings. The absence of chemotherapy in Basic settings should be reconsidered, and future iterations of RSG should perform cross-tumor comparisons to ensure equitable resource distribution and maximize population-level outcomes. Our model is flexible and can be tailored to the costs, population attributes, and resource availability of any institution or country for health-services planning.

Regional geographic variations in kidney cancer incidence rates in European countries.

CONTEXT: Marked unexplained national variations in incidence rates of kidney cancer have been observed for decades in Europe. OBJECTIVE: To investigate geographic variations at the regional level and identify European regions with high incidence rates of kidney cancer. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION: Regional- and national-level incidence data were extracted from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents databases, local cancer registry databases, and local published reports. World population age-standardised rates (ASRs) were calculated for the periods 2003-2007 and 1988-1992. Rates by period and sex were compared using map visualisation. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: During 2003-2007, the highest ASR was found in the Plzen region, Czech Republic (31.4/100,000 person-years in men). Other regions of the Czech Republic had ASRs of 18.6-27.5/100,000 in men, with a tendency for higher rates in regions south of Prague. Surrounding regions, including eastern Germany and regions of Slovakia and Austria, had medium-to-high incidence rates (13.0-16.8/100,000 in men). Three other areas in Europe showed higher incidence rates in men compared with the rest of the continent: Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, and Belarus (15.0-17.6/100,000); Iceland (13.5/100,000), and northern Italy (up to 16.0/100,000). Similar regional differences were observed among women, with rates approximately half of those observed in men in the same region. In general, these regional geographic variations remained stable over the periods 1988-1992 and 2003-2007, although higher incidence rates were detected in the Baltic countries in 2003-2007. CONCLUSIONS: Several European regions show particularly high rates of kidney cancer incidence. Large variations were observed within countries covered by national health-care systems, implying that overdetection is not the major factor. PATIENT SUMMARY: We present regional geographic variations in kidney cancer incidence rates in Europe. We highlight several regions with high incidence rates where further studies should be conducted for cancer control and prevention.