Population-Level Risk Factors Related to Measles Case Fatality: A Conceptual Framework Based on Expert Consultation and Literature Review.

A better understanding of population-level factors related to measles case fatality is needed to estimate measles mortality burden and impact of interventions such as vaccination. This study aimed to develop a conceptual framework of mechanisms associated with measles case fatality ratios (CFRs) and assess the scope of evidence available for related indicators. Using expert consultation, we developed a conceptual framework of mechanisms associated with measles CFR and identified population-level indicators potentially associated with each mechanism. We conducted a literature review by searching PubMed on 31 October 2021 to determine the scope of evidence for the expert-identified indicators. Studies were included if they contained evidence of an association between an indicator and CFR and were excluded if they were from non-human studies or reported non-original data. Included studies were assessed for study quality. Expert consultation identified five mechanisms in a conceptual framework of factors related to measles CFR. We identified 3772 studies for review and found 49 studies showing at least one significant association with CFR for 15 indicators (average household size, educational attainment, first- and second-dose coverage of measles-containing vaccine, human immunodeficiency virus prevalence, level of health care available, stunting prevalence, surrounding conflict, travel time to major city or settlement, travel time to nearest health care facility, under-five mortality rate, underweight prevalence, vitamin A deficiency prevalence, vitamin A treatment, and general malnutrition) and only non-significant associations for five indicators (antibiotic use for measles-related pneumonia, malaria prevalence, percent living in urban settings, pneumococcal conjugate vaccination coverage, vitamin A supplementation). Our study used expert consultation and a literature review to provide additional insights and a summary of the available evidence of these underlying mechanisms and indicators that could inform future measles CFR estimations.

Effects of virus infection on pollen production and pollen performance: Implications for the spread of resistance alleles.

PREMISE OF STUDY: Studies over the past 25 years have shown that environmental stresses adversely affect male function, including pollen production and pollen performance (germination and pollen tube growth rate). Consequently, genetic variation among plants in resistance to a stress has the potential to impact pollen donation to conspecifics and, if deposited onto a stigma, the ability of the pollen to achieve fertilization. We examined the effects of a nonlethal virus epidemic on pollen production and pollen performance in a population of susceptible and resistant (transgenic) wild squash (Cucurbita pepo subsp. texana). METHODS: We grew 135 susceptible and 45 virus-resistant wild squash plants in each of two 0.4-ha fields, initiated a zucchini yellow mosaic virus (ZYMV) epidemic, and recorded staminate and pistillate flower production per plant over the field season and the total number of mature fruit. We also assessed pollen production per flower on ZYMV-infected and non-infected plants and the ability of pollen from flowers on infected and non-infected plants to achieve fertilization under competitive conditions. KEY RESULTS: ZYMV infection reduced flower and fruit production per plant and pollen production per flower. Pollen from infected plants was also less likely to sire a seed under competitive conditions. CONCLUSIONS: ZYMV infection adversely impacts the amount of pollen that can be donated to conspecifics, and pollen competition within the styles increases the probability that the ovules are fertilized by pollen from plants that are thriving when challenged by a viral disease.

A gravity model for the spread of a pollinator-borne plant pathogen.

Many pathogens of plants are transmitted by arthropod vectors whose movement between individual hosts is influenced by foraging behavior. Insect foraging has been shown to depend on both the quality of hosts and the distances between hosts. Given the spatial distribution of host plants and individual variation in quality, vector foraging patterns may therefore produce predictable variation in exposure to pathogens. We develop a "gravity" model to describe the spatial spread of a vector-borne plant pathogen from underlying models of insect foraging in response to host quality using the pollinator-borne smut fungus Microbotryum violaceum as a case study. We fit the model to spatially explicit time series of M. violaceum transmission in replicate experimental plots of the white campion Silene latifolia. The gravity model provides a better fit than a mean field model or a model with only distance-dependent transmission. The results highlight the importance of active vector foraging in generating spatial patterns of disease incidence and for pathogen-mediated selection for floral traits.