RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: A method that can be used in the early stage of multiple sclerosis (MS) to predict the progression of brain volume loss (BVL) has not been fully established. METHODS: To develop a method of predicting progressive BVL in patients with MS (pwMS), eighty-two consecutive Japanese pwMS-with either relapsing-remitting MS (86%) or secondary progressive MS (14%)-and 41 healthy controls were included in this longitudinal retrospective analysis over an observational period of approximately 3.5 years. Using a hierarchical cluster analysis with multivariate imaging data obtained by FreeSurfer analysis, we classified the pwMS into clusters. RESULTS: At baseline and follow-up, pwMS were cross-sectionally classified into three major clusters (Clusters 1, 2, and 3) in ascending order by disability and BVL. Among the patients included in Cluster 1 at baseline, approximately one-third of patients (12/52) transitioned into Cluster 2 at follow-up. The volumes of the corpus callosum, the thalamus, and the whole brain excluding the ventricles were significantly decreased in the transition group compared with the nontransition group and were found to be the most important predictors of transition. CONCLUSION: Decreased volumes of the corpus callosum and thalamus in the relatively early stage of MS may predict the development of BVL.