Estimating surgical probability: Development and validation of a prognostic model for patients with lumbar disc herniation treated with acupuncture.

Lumbar disc herniation (LDH) is a common cause of pain in the lumbar spine and legs. While acupuncture has become the primary conservative treatment for LDH, some patients experience treatment failure and require surgery, causing substantial concern for clinicians. We developed an effective personalized clinical prediction model to identify the independent risk factors associated with acupuncture failure in patients with LDH. Our model aimed to predict the probability of surgery within 6 months of acupuncture failure in patients with LDH. A total of 738 patients with LDH who underwent acupuncture at 4 Chinese hospitals between January 2019 and October 2021 were selected. The patients were divided into training (n = 496) and validation (n = 242) cohorts. Seven predictive variables, including smoking, Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) score, lower-limb herniation, disc herniation type, lumbar spinal stenosis, lumbar lateral recess stenosis, and acupuncture frequency, were selected as risk factors using least absolute shrinkage and selection operato (LASSO) regression. A prediction model was developed using multivariate logistic regression analysis and a nomogram was constructed. The model exhibited good discrimination, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.903 for the development cohort and 0.899 for the validation cohort. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was a good fit for both cohorts (P = .956 for the development cohort; P = .513 for the validation cohort). Decision curve analysis (DCA) demonstrated that the threshold probabilities for the 2 cohorts ranged from > 4% and 5-95%, respectively. Therefore, the prediction model had a good net benefit. The nomogram established in this study, incorporating 7 risk factors, demonstrated a good predictive ability. It could predict acupuncture failure in LDH patients and the risk of surgery within 6 months, enabling physicians to conduct individualized treatment measures.

[Intestinal dysfunction of spinal cord injury treated with tongdu tiaoshen moxibustion: a randomized controlled trial].

OBJECTIVE: To compare the clinical effect on intestinal dysfunction of spinal cord injury (SCI) between the comprehensive therapy of tongdu tiaoshen moxibustion (moxibustion for opening the governor vessel and regulating the spirit) and rehabilitation training and the simple treatment with rehabilitation training. METHODS: A total of 60 patients with intestinal dysfunction of SCI were randomized into a comprehensive therapy group and a rehabilitation group, 30 cases in each one (3 cases were dropped out in each group). On the base of the routine western medicine treatment and rehabilitation training, the bowel training and rectal function training were provided, once a day in the rehabilitation group. In the comprehensive therapy group, on the base of the treatment as the rehabilitation group, the tongdu tiaoshen moxibustion was exerted at Yaoyangguan (GV 3), Mingmen (GV 4), Zhiyang (GV 9), Dazhui (GV 14) and Baihui (GV 20), etc, once a day, 30 min each time. In both groups, the treatment for 4 weeks was as one course and 3 courses of treatment were required. Separately, before treatment, after 4, 8 and 12 weeks of treatment, the scores of neurogenic bowel dysfunction (NBD) and World Health Organization quality of life scale (WHOQOL-BREF) were observed and the clinical effect was evaluated after 12 weeks of treatment. RESULTS: After treatment, the total effective rate was 88.9% (24/27) in the comprehensive therapy group, which was higher than 74.1% (20/27) in the rehabilitation group (P<0.05). After 4, 8 and 12 weeks of treatment, NBD scores were all reduced obviously as compared with those before treatment in the two groups (all P<0.01). After 8 and 12 weeks of treatment, NBD scores in the comprehensive therapy group were lower than the rehabilitation group (both P<0.05). After 4, 8 and 12 weeks of treatment, the scores of all of the domains (psychology, physiology, social relations and environment) in WHOQOL-BREF were higher than those before treatment in the two groups (all P<0.01). After 4 weeks of treatment, the scores in the psychology and physiology domains in the comprehensive therapy group were higher than the rehabilitation group (all P<0.05). After 8 and 12 weeks of treatment, the scores of all of the domains in the comprehensive therapy group were higher than the rehabilitation group (all P<0.05). CONCLUSION: The comprehensive treatment of tongdu tiaoshen moxibustion and rehabilitation training achieves the better effect on intestinal dysfunction of SCI than the simple rehabilitation training and greatly improves the quality of life in SCI patients.