Phosphorus applications adjusted to optimal crop yields can help sustain global phosphorus reserves.

With the longevity of phosphorus reserves uncertain, distributing phosphorus to meet food production needs is a global challenge. Here we match plant-available soil Olsen phosphorus concentrations to thresholds for optimal productivity of improved grassland and 28 of the world's most widely grown and valuable crops. We find more land (73%) below optimal production thresholds than above. We calculate that an initial capital application of 56,954 kt could boost soil Olsen phosphorus to their threshold concentrations and that 28,067 kt yr-1 (17,500 kt yr-1 to cropland) could maintain these thresholds. Without additional reserves becoming available, it would take 454 years at the current rate of application (20,500 kt yr-1) to exhaust estimated reserves (2020 value), compared with 531 years at our estimated maintenance rate and 469 years if phosphorus deficits were alleviated. More judicious use of phosphorus fertilizers to account for soil Olsen phosphorus can help achieve optimal production without accelerating the depletion of phosphorus reserves.

Determining the Effect of Drying Time on Phosphorus Solubilization from Three Agricultural Soils under Climate Change Scenarios.

Climate projections for the future indicate that the United Kingdom will experience hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters, bringing longer dry periods followed by rewetting. This will result in changes in phosphorus (P) mobilization patterns that will influence the transfer of P from land to water. We tested the hypothesis that changes in the future patterns of drying-rewetting will affect the amount of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) solubilized from soil. Estimations of dry period characteristics (duration and temperature) under current and predicted climate were determined using data from the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) Weather Generator tool. Three soils (sieved <2 mm), collected from two regions of the United Kingdom with different soils and farm systems, were dried at 25°C for periods of 0, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 60, and 90 d, then subsequently rewetted (50 mL over 2 h). The solubilized leachate was collected and analyzed for SRP. In the 2050s, warm period temperature extremes >25°C are predicted in some places and dry periods of 30 to 90 d extremes are predicted. Combining the frequency of projected dry periods with the SRP concentration in leachate suggests that this may result overall in increased mobilization of P; however, critical breakpoints of 6.9 to 14.5 d dry occur wherein up to 28% more SRP can be solubilized following a rapid rewetting event. The precise cause of this increase could not be identified and warrants further investigation as the process is not currently included in P transfer models.

Changing climate and nutrient transfers: Evidence from high temporal resolution concentration-flow dynamics in headwater catchments.

We hypothesise that climate change, together with intensive agricultural systems, will increase the transfer of pollutants from land to water and impact on stream health. This study builds, for the first time, an integrated assessment of nutrient transfers, bringing together a) high-frequency data from the outlets of two surface water-dominated, headwater (~10km(2)) agricultural catchments, b) event-by-event analysis of nutrient transfers, c) concentration duration curves for comparison with EU Water Framework Directive water quality targets, d) event analysis of location-specific, sub-daily rainfall projections (UKCP, 2009), and e) a linear model relating storm rainfall to phosphorus load. These components, in combination, bring innovation and new insight into the estimation of future phosphorus transfers, which was not available from individual components. The data demonstrated two features of particular concern for climate change impacts. Firstly, the bulk of the suspended sediment and total phosphorus (TP) load (greater than 90% and 80% respectively) was transferred during the highest discharge events. The linear model of rainfall-driven TP transfers estimated that, with the projected increase in winter rainfall (+8% to +17% in the catchments by 2050s), annual event loads might increase by around 9% on average, if agricultural practices remain unchanged. Secondly, events following dry periods of several weeks, particularly in summer, were responsible for high concentrations of phosphorus, but relatively low loads. The high concentrations, associated with low flow, could become more frequent or last longer in the future, with a corresponding increase in the length of time that threshold concentrations (e.g. for water quality status) are exceeded. The results suggest that in order to build resilience in stream health and help mitigate potential increases in diffuse agricultural water pollution due to climate change, land management practices should target controllable risk factors, such as soil nutrient status, soil condition and crop cover.

Dominant mechanisms for the delivery of fine sediment and phosphorus to fluvial networks draining grassland dominated headwater catchments.

Recent advances in monitoring technology have enabled high frequency, in-situ measurements of total phosphorus and total reactive phosphorus to be undertaken with high precision, whilst turbidity can provide an excellent surrogate for suspended sediment. Despite these measurements being fundamental to understanding the mechanisms and flow paths that deliver these constituents to river networks, there is a paucity of such data for headwater agricultural catchments. The aim of this paper is to deduce the dominant mechanisms for the delivery of fine sediment and phosphorus to an upland river network in the UK through characterisation of the temporal variability of hydrological fluxes, and associated soluble and particulate concentrations for the period spanning March 2012-February 2013. An assessment of the factors producing constituent hysteresis is undertaken following factor analysis (FA) on a suite of measured environmental variables representing the fluvial and wider catchment conditions prior to, and during catchment-wide hydrological events. Analysis indicates that suspended sediment is delivered to the fluvial system predominantly via rapidly responding pathways driven by event hydrology. However, evidence of complex, figure-of-eight hysteresis is observed following periods of hydrological quiescence, highlighting the importance of preparatory processes. Sediment delivery via a slow moving, probably sub-surface pathway does occur, albeit infrequently and during low magnitude events at the catchment outlet. Phosphorus is revealed to have a distinct hysteretic response to that of suspended sediment, with sub-surface pathways dominating. However, high magnitude events were observed to exhibit threshold-like behaviour, whereby activation and connection of usually disconnected depositional zones to the fluvial networks results in the movement of vast phosphorus fluxes. Multiple pathways are observed for particulate and soluble constituents, highlighting the challenges faced in mitigating the delivery of contaminant fluxes to headwater river systems.

High frequency variability of environmental drivers determining benthic community dynamics in headwater streams.

Headwater streams are an important feature of the landscape, with their diversity in structure and associated ecological function providing a potential natural buffer against downstream nutrient export. Phytobenthic communities, dominated in many headwaters by diatoms, must respond to physical and chemical parameters that can vary in magnitude within hours, whereas the ecological regeneration times are much longer. How diatom communities develop in the fluctuating, dynamic environments characteristic of headwaters is poorly understood. Deployment of near-continuous monitoring technology in sub-catchments of the River Eden, NW England, provides the opportunity for measurement of temporal variability in stream discharge and nutrient resource supply to benthic communities, as represented by monthly diatom samples collected over two years. Our data suggest that the diatom communities and the derived Trophic Diatom Index, best reflect stream discharge conditions over the preceding 18-21 days and Total Phosphorus concentrations over a wider antecedent window of 7-21 days. This is one of the first quantitative assessments of long-term diatom community development in response to continuously-measured stream nutrient concentration and discharge fluctuations. The data reveal the sensitivity of these headwater communities to mean conditions prior to sampling, with flow as the dominant variable. With sufficient understanding of the role of antecedent conditions, these methods can be used to inform interpretation of monitoring data, including those collected under the European Water Framework Directive and related mitigation efforts.

Mitigating diffuse phosphorus transfer from agriculture according to cost and efficiency.

Potential options for mitigating phosphorus (P) transfer from agriculture to water in England and Wales (E&W) were collated across a range of farm systems to assess their potential effectiveness in reducing mass of P transferred and potential cost (pounds sterling [ pound]) to the farming industry. A simple model framework (called PEASE) incorporating a number of assumptions was used to identify 15 methods for mitigating inputs of P to agricultural systems, 19 methods for preventing mobilization of P, and six methods for controlling the transport of P to streams. The scope for largest reductions in P inputs was to grassland and horticulture. Potential reductions in P mobilization were up to 1.2 kg P ha(-1). Reductions in P transfer associated with transport mitigation were larger than those associated with input and mobilization methods (up to 2.2 kg P ha(-1)). The largest estimated reductions were achieved by installing buffer zones and constructed wetlands, the former being very cost effective ( pound3-5 kg(-1) P saved). Plots of cost curves helped identify where the combined and cumulative P transfer reductions were attainable; these were approximately 0.2 kg ha(-1) for uplands, 0.6 kg ha(-1) for outdoor pigs, 0.9 kg ha(-1) for intensive dairy, and 2.2 kg ha(-1) for arable examples. We concluded that established catchment-scale evidence for mitigation is sparse, especially for specific farm systems in E&W. Sensitivities and uncertainties in the approach, especially associated with expert coefficients, are noted. This approach is nonetheless considered useful for prioritizing where and how best options might be most effectively targeted for least cost but greatest benefit.

The phosphorus transfer continuum: linking source to impact with an interdisciplinary and multi-scaled approach.

This critical review introduces a template that links phosphorus (P) sources and mobilisation processes to the delivery of P to receiving waters where deleterious impact is of concern. It therefore serves as a key introductory paper in this special issue. The entire process is described in terms of a 'P transfer continuum' to emphasise the interdisciplinary and inter-scale nature of the problem. Most knowledge to date is derived from mechanistic studies on the sources and mobilisation of P using controlled experiments that have formed the basis for mitigation strategies aimed at minimising transfer from agricultural fields. However, our ability to extrapolate this information to larger scales is limited by a poor knowledge base while new conceptual advances in the areas of complex systems and fractal dynamics indicate the limitations of past theoretical frameworks. This is compounded by the conceptual and physical separation of scientists working at different scales within the terrestrial and aquatic sciences. Multi-scaled approaches are urgently required to integrate different disciplines and provide a platform to develop mechanistic modelling frameworks, collect new data and identify critical research questions.

Phosphorus dynamics observed through increasing scales in a nested headwater-to-river channel study.

The hypothesis that the dynamic patterns of phosphorus (P) transport at plot scale are similar to the patterns that could be observed quasi-simultaneously (i.e., approximately at the same time) at a river basin scale, in terms of inputs and dilution of P, across a range of rainfall and runoff conditions, was tested. From this information, it was hoped to be able to make some simple inferences about the connectivity or mass flux of P transport between the different scales of observation. An intensive study using 30-m2 plots, 1-ha plots and nested river channel sites ranging in scale from 20 ha up to a maximum of 834 km2 in the River Taw basin, South West England, UK, was conducted with three campaigns under differing flow conditions: (1) a zero rainfall base flow period, (2) a 10-mm rainfall residual flow period, and (3) a 42-mm rainfall storm flow period. The mass flux of total P ranged from 49 kg during base flow to 4 tonnes during the storm period at the largest 834 km2 scale. During base flow conditions, total phosphorus (TP) concentrations from diffuse sources were low (26 microg L-1 in the upper catchment) and reactive P forms dominated the fractions filtered <0.45 microm. During storm flow, concentrations of TP increased at all scales within the drainage basin, to a maximum of 500 microg L-1 and were sufficient to override the effect of any point source inputs of P. Unreactive (i.e., mostly 'organic') forms of P dominated the fractions that were >0.45 microm during residual flows and storm flows. Spatially normalised discharge apparently decreased with increasing scale, most notably during storm flow conditions and this implies that there is some storage of water through the catchment and in part may reflect varying velocities of water in different pathways. Most attenuation and dilution of P appeared to occur at larger scales, whilst the hydrological connectivity between source areas and receiving waters was greatest at smaller scales (<20 ha), and during the highest flows. The importance of diffuse agricultural sources in contributing to P export through the basin was dominated by dynamic temporal changes in hydrological activity, with a 'piston pushing' effect of particulate associated P through the basin as it wets up in response to rainfall input. We concluded that the processes of P transfer are different at different scales. However, some uncertainties of spatial heterogeneity around the catchment underlie the difficulties in dealing with scale and thus more data and studies of this nature are required.