RESUMEN
PURPOSE: To develop a radiomics model based on dynamic contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) to predict early and late recurrence in patients with a single HCC lesion ≤ 5 cm in diameter after thermal ablation. PROCEDURES: We enrolled patients who underwent thermal ablation for HCC in our hospital from April 2004 to April 2017. Radiomics based on two branch convolution recurrent network was utilized to analyze preoperative dynamic CEUS image of HCC lesions to establish CEUS model, in comparison to the conventional ultrasound (US), clinical, and combined models. Clinical follow-up of HCC recurrence after ablation were taken as reference standard to evaluate the predicted performance of CEUS model and other models. RESULTS: We finally analyzed 318 patients (training cohort: test cohort = 255:63). The combined model showed better performance for early recurrence than CUES (in training cohort, AUC, 0.89 vs. 0.84, P < 0.001; in test cohort, AUC, 0.84 vs. 0.83, P = 0.272), US (P < 0.001), or clinical model (P < 0.001). For late recurrence prediction, the combined model showed the best performance than the CEUS (C-index, in training cohort, 0.77 vs. 0.76, P = 0.009; in test cohort, 0.77 vs. 0.68, P < 0.001), US (P < 0.001), or clinical model (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The CEUS model based on dynamic CEUS radiomics performed well in predicting early HCC recurrence after ablation. The combined model combining CEUS, US radiomics, and clinical factors could stratify the high risk of late recurrence.