Risk of myopericarditis following COVID-19 mRNA vaccination in a large integrated health system: A comparison of completeness and timeliness of two methods.

PURPOSE: How completely do hospital discharge diagnoses identify cases of myopericarditis after an mRNA vaccine? METHODS: We assembled a cohort 12-39 year-old patients, insured by Kaiser Permanente Northwest, who received at least one dose of an mRNA vaccine (Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna) between December 2020 and October 2021. We followed them for up to 30 days after their second dose of an mRNA vaccine to identify encounters for myocarditis, pericarditis or myopericarditis. We compared two identification methods: A method that searched all encounter diagnoses using a brief text description (e.g., ICD-10-CM code I40.9 is defined as 'acute myocarditis, unspecified'). We searched the text description of all inpatient or outpatient encounter diagnoses (in any position) for "myocarditis" or "pericarditis." The other method was developed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD), which searched for emergency department visits or hospitalizations with a select set of discharge ICD-10-CM diagnosis codes. For both methods, two physicians independently reviewed the identified patient records and classified them as confirmed, probable or not cases using the CDC's case definition. RESULTS: The encounter methodology identified 14 distinct patients who met the confirmed or probable CDC case definition for acute myocarditis or pericarditis with an onset within 21 days of receipt of COVID-19 vaccination. When we extended the search for relevant diagnoses to 30 days since vaccination, we identified two additional patients (for a total of 16 patients) who met the case definition for acute myocarditis or pericarditis, but those patients had been misdiagnosed at the time of their original presentation. Three of these patients had an ICD-10-CM code of I51.4 "Myocarditis, Unspecified;" that code was omitted by the VSD algorithm (in the late fall of 2021). The VSD methodology identified 11 patients who met the CDC case definition for acute myocarditis or pericarditis. Seven (64%) of the 11 patients had initial care for myopericarditis outside of a KPNW facility and their diagnosis could not be ascertained by the VSD methodology until claims were submitted (median delay of 33 days; range of 12-195 days). Among those who received a second dose of vaccine (n = 146 785), we estimated a risk as 95.4 cases of myopericarditis per million second doses administered (95% CI, 52.1-160.0). CONCLUSION: We identified additional valid cases of myopericarditis following an mRNA vaccination that would be missed by the VSD's search algorithm, which depends on select hospital discharge diagnosis codes. The true incidence of myopericarditis is markedly higher than the incidence reported to US advisory committees in the fall of 2021. The VSD should validate its search algorithm to improve its sensitivity for myopericarditis.

Precision Patient Navigation to Improve Rates of Follow-up Colonoscopy, An Individual Randomized Effectiveness Trial.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer screening by annual fecal immunochemical test (FIT) with follow-up on abnormal results is a cost-effective strategy to reduce colorectal cancer incidence and mortality. Unfortunately, many patients with abnormal results do not complete a follow-up colonoscopy. We tested whether navigation targeted to patients who are unlikely to complete the procedure may improve adherence and long-term outcomes. METHODS: Study participants were patients at a large, integrated health system (Kaiser Permanente Northwest) who were ages 50 to 75 and were due for a follow-up colonoscopy after a recent abnormal FIT result. Probability of adherence to follow-up was estimated at baseline using a predictive risk model. Patients whose probability was 70% or lower were randomized to receive patient navigation or usual care, with randomization stratified by probability category (<50%, 50% < 60%, 60% < 65%, 65% ≤ 70%). We compared colonoscopy completion within 6 months between the navigation and usual care groups using Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: Participants (n = 415; 200 assigned to patient navigation, 215 to usual care) had a mean age of 62 years, 54% were female, and 87% were non-Hispanic white. By 6 months, 76% of the patient navigation group had completed a colonoscopy, compared with 65% of the usual care group (HR = 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.07-1.72; log-rank P value = 0.027). CONCLUSIONS: In this randomized trial, patient navigation led to improvements in follow-up colonoscopy adherence. IMPACT: More research is needed to assess the value of precision-directed navigation programs.

Comparative Effectiveness of Usual Care With or Without Chiropractic Care in Patients with Recurrent Musculoskeletal Back and Neck Pain.

BACKGROUND: Chiropractic care is a popular alternative for back and neck pain, with efficacy comparable to usual care in randomized trials. However, the effectiveness of chiropractic care as delivered through conventional care settings remains largely unexplored. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the comparative effectiveness of usual care with or without chiropractic care for patients with chronic recurrent musculoskeletal back and neck pain. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort study using propensity score-matched controls. PARTICIPANTS: Using retrospective electronic health record data, we developed a propensity score model predicting likelihood of chiropractic referral. Eligible patients with back or neck pain were then contacted upon referral for chiropractic care and enrolled in a prospective study. For each referred patient, two propensity score-matched non-referred patients were contacted and enrolled. We followed the participants prospectively for 6 months. MAIN MEASURES: Main outcomes included pain severity, interference, and symptom bothersomeness. Secondary outcomes included expenditures for pain-related health care. KEY RESULTS: Both groups' (N = 70 referred, 139 non-referred) pain scores improved significantly over the first 3 months, with less change between months 3 and 6. No significant between-group difference was observed. (severity - 0.10 (95% CI - 0.30, 0.10), interference - 0.07 (- 0.31, 0.16), bothersomeness - 0.1 (- 0.39, 0.19)). After controlling for variances in baseline costs, total costs during the 6-month post-enrollment follow-up were significantly higher on average in the non-referred versus referred group ($1996 [SD = 3874] vs $1086 [SD = 1212], p = .034). Adjusting for differences in age, gender, and Charlson comorbidity index attenuated this finding, which was no longer statistically significant (p = .072). CONCLUSIONS: We found no statistically significant difference between the two groups in either patient-reported or economic outcomes. As clinical outcomes were similar, and the provision of chiropractic care did not increase costs, making chiropractic services available provided an additional viable option for patients who prefer this type of care, at no additional expense.

The feasibility of matching on a propensity score for acupuncture in a prospective cohort study of patients with chronic pain.

BACKGROUND: Propensity scores are typically applied in retrospective cohort studies. We describe the feasibility of matching on a propensity score derived from a retrospective cohort and subsequently applied in a prospective cohort study of patients with chronic musculoskeletal pain before the start of acupuncture or usual care treatment and enrollment in a comparative effectiveness study that required patient reported pain outcomes. METHODS: We assembled a retrospective cohort study using data from 2010 to develop a propensity score for acupuncture versus usual care based on electronic healthcare record and administrative data (e.g., pharmacy) from an integrated health plan, Kaiser Permanente Northwest. The propensity score's probabilities allowed us to match acupuncture-referred and non-referred patients prospectively in 2013-14 after a routine outpatient visit for pain. Among the matched patients, we collected patient-reported pain before treatment and during follow-up to assess the comparative effectiveness of acupuncture. We assessed balance in patient characteristics with the post-matching c-statistic and standardized differences. RESULTS: Based on the propensity score and other characteristics (e.g., patient-reported pain), we were able to match all 173 acupuncture-referred patients to 350 non-referred (usual care) patients. We observed a residual imbalance (based on the standardized differences) for some characteristics that contributed to the score; for example, age, -0.283, and the Charlson comorbidity score, -0.264, had the largest standardized differences. The overall balance of the propensity score appeared more favorable according to the post-matching c-statistic, 0.503. CONCLUSION: The propensity score matching was feasible statistically and logistically and allowed approximate balance on patient characteristics, some of which will require adjustment in the comparative effectiveness regression model. By transporting propensity scores to new patients, healthcare systems with electronic health records can conduct comparative effectiveness cohort studies that require prospective data collection, such as patient-reported outcomes, while approximately balancing numerous patient characteristics that might confound the benefit of an intervention. The approach offers a new study design option.

Use of Risk Models to Predict Death in the Next Year Among Individual Ambulatory Patients With Heart Failure.

Importance: The clinical practice guidelines for heart failure recommend the use of validated risk models to estimate prognosis. Understanding how well models identify individuals who will die in the next year informs decision making for advanced treatments and hospice. Objective: To quantify how risk models calculated in routine practice estimate more than 50% 1-year mortality among ambulatory patients with heart failure who die in the subsequent year. Design, Setting, and Participants: Ambulatory adults with heart failure from 3 integrated health systems were enrolled between 2005 and 2008. The probability of death was estimated using the Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) and the Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC) risk calculator. Baseline covariates were collected from electronic health records. Missing covariates were imputed. Estimated mortality was compared with actual mortality at both population and individual levels. Main Outcomes and Measures: One-year mortality. Results: Among 10 930 patients with heart failure, the median age was 77 years, and 48.0% of these patients were female. In the year after study enrollment, 1661 patients died (15.9% by life-table analysis). At the population level, 1-year predicted mortality among the cohort was 9.7% for the SHFM (C statistic of 0.66) and 17.5% for the MAGGIC risk calculator (C statistic of 0.69). At the individual level, the SHFM predicted a more than 50% probability of dying in the next year for 8 of the 1661 patients who died (sensitivity for 1-year death was 0.5%) and for 5 patients who lived at least a year (positive predictive value, 61.5%). The MAGGIC risk calculator predicted a more than 50% probability of dying in the next year for 52 of the 1661 patients who died (sensitivity, 3.1%) and for 63 patients who lived at least a year (positive predictive value, 45.2%). Conversely, the SHFM estimated that 8496 patients (77.8%) had a less than 15% probability of dying at 1 year, yet this lower-risk end of the score range captured nearly two-thirds of deaths (n = 997); similarly, the MAGGIC risk calculator estimated a probability of dying of less than 25% for the majority of patients who died at 1 year (n = 914). Conclusions and Relevance: Although heart failure risk models perform reasonably well at the population level, they do not reliably predict which individual patients will die in the next year.

Surgical outcomes of total knee replacement according to diabetes status and glycemic control, 2001 to 2009.

BACKGROUND: Poor glycemic control in patients with diabetes may be associated with adverse surgical outcomes. We sought to determine the association of diabetes status and preoperative glycemic control with several surgical outcomes, including revision arthroplasty and deep infection. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study in five regions of a large integrated health-care organization. Eligible subjects, identified from the Kaiser Permanente Total Joint Replacement Registry, underwent an elective first primary total knee arthroplasty during 2001 through 2009. Data on demographics, diabetes status, preoperative hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) level, and comorbid conditions were obtained from electronic medical records. Subjects were classified as nondiabetic, diabetic with HbA1c < 7% (controlled diabetes), or diabetic with HbA1c ≥ 7% (uncontrolled diabetes). Outcomes were deep venous thrombosis or pulmonary embolism within ninety days after surgery and revision surgery, deep infection, incident myocardial infarction, and all-cause rehospitalization within one year after surgery. Patients without diabetes were the reference group in all analyses. All models were adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, and Charlson Comorbidity Index. RESULTS: Of 40,491 patients who underwent total knee arthroplasty, 7567 (18.7%) had diabetes, 464 (1.1%) underwent revision arthroplasty, and 287 (0.7%) developed a deep infection. Compared with the patients without diabetes, no association between controlled diabetes (HbA1c < 7%) and the risk of revision (odds ratio [OR], 1.32; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.99 to 1.76), risk of deep infection (OR, 1.31; 95% CI, 0.92 to 1.86), or risk of deep venous thrombosis or pulmonary embolism (OR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.60 to 1.17) was observed. Similarly, compared with patients without diabetes, no association between uncontrolled diabetes (HbA1c ≥ 7%) and the risk of revision (OR, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.68 to 1.54), risk of deep infection (OR, 0.55; 95% CI 0.29 to 1.06), or risk of deep venous thrombosis or pulmonary embolism (OR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.43 to 1.13) was observed. CONCLUSIONS: No significantly increased risk of revision arthroplasty, deep infection, or deep venous thrombosis was found in patients with diabetes (as defined on the basis of preoperative HbA1c levels and other criteria) compared with patients without diabetes in the study population of patients who underwent elective total knee arthroplasty.

Predicting the risk of hyperkalemia in patients with chronic kidney disease starting lisinopril.

PURPOSE: Angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors are recommended for patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) because they slow disease progression. But physicians' concerns about the risk of hyperkalemia (elevated serum potassium level), a potentially fatal adverse effect, may limit optimal management with ACE-inhibitors. We synthesized known predictors of hyperkalemia into a prognostic risk score to predict the risk of hyperkalemia. METHODS: We assembled a retrospective cohort of adult patients with possible CKD (at least one estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) value less than 60 ml/min/1.73 m(2)) who started an ACE-inhibitor (i.e., incident users) between 1998 and 2006 at a health maintenance organization. We followed patients for hyperkalemia: (1) potassium value >5.5 mmol/L; or (2) diagnosis code for hyperkalemia. Cox regression synthesized a priori predictors recorded in the electronic medical record into a risk score. RESULTS: We followed 5171 patients and 145 experienced hyperkalemia, a 90-day risk of 2.8%. Predictors included: age, eGFR, diabetes, heart failure, potassium supplements, potassium-sparing diuretics, and a high dose for the ACE-inhibitor (lisinopril). The risk score separated high-risk patients (top quintile, observed risk of 6.9%) from low-risk patients (bottom quintile, observed risk of 0.7%). Predicted and observed risks agreed within 1% for each quintile. The risk increased gradually in relation to declining eGFR with no apparent threshold for contraindicating ACE-inhibitors. CONCLUSIONS: The risk score separated high-risk patients (who may need more intensive laboratory monitoring) from low-risk patients. The risk score should be validated in other populations before it is ready for use in clinical practice.

Outcomes predicted by phosphorous in chronic kidney disease: a retrospective CKD-inception cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The impact of secondary hyperparathyroidism on morbidity and mortality among patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) is unclear. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study to investigate the relationship between CKD and serum phosphorous. Through clinical databases at a large health maintenance organization, we identified a dynamic CKD inception cohort between 1997 and 2004, with stage 3-5 kidney disease with subsequent phosphorous measurement; the patients were followed up for up to 5 years for outcomes of mortality, cardiovascular mortality, cardiovascular hospitalizations and renal replacement therapy (RRT; dialysis or transplant). Survival analysis with time-varying covariables for phosphorous and renal function estimated the relationship between phosphorous level and outcomes, adjusting for potential confounding variables. RESULTS: A total of 930 patients with complete data were included in our analysis; they had a higher disease burden than excluded patients. Phosphorous did not predict overall or cardiovascular mortality, or cardiovascular hospitalizations. The rate of RRT increased significantly with the level of phosphorous, even when controlling for renal function. CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to some previous reports, we did not find evidence of increased mortality with phosphorous, but did find that increased levels of phosphorous are related to excess rates of RRT. Our work does not suggest that controlling phosphorous will lower the risk of RRT; our work motivates randomized controlled trials to investigate the clinical value of such interventions.

Adherence to K/DOQI bone metabolism guidelines.

OBJECTIVE: Guidelines for the treatment of patients with chronic kidney disease recommend laboratory testing of markers of bone metabolism, including intact parathyroid hormone, calcium, and phosphorus. The authors sought to evaluate the concordance of contemporary clinical practice with treatment recommendations. Trends were evaluated (2002 to 2005) in testing for bone metabolism in patients with chronic kidney disease, and the relation between bone metabolism markers, severity of chronic kidney disease, and cardiovascular hospitalizations were examined. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort. SETTING: Large United States health-maintenance organization. PATIENTS: Chronic kidney disease. RESULTS: Little variation was found in testing rates over time. Testing frequency was positively correlated with severity of kidney disease, referral to nephrology, and test type (annual testing was most likely for intact parathyroid hormone, and least likely for calcium). Patients with higher intact parathyroid hormone values had a greater risk of cardiovascular-related hospitalization; after adjusting for potential confounders, those with an intact parathyroid hormone value of 200 and greater had a relative risk of 2.16 (95% confidence interval, 1.09 to 4.29). CONCLUSIONS: This study supports the hypothesized association between disorders of bone metabolism and cardiovascular disease, but it does not address whether increased testing for disorders of bone metabolism will improve outcomes for patients with chronic kidney disease. Nor does our analysis imply that controlling parathyroid hormone will prevent cardiovascular hospitalizations. Future studies should more fully explore those critical clinical questions.

Effect of ergocalciferol supplementation on serum parathyroid hormone and serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D in chronic kidney disease.

AIM: To assess the impact of the administration of ergocalciferol on serum parathyroid hormone levels at different stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD). METHODS: A continuous series of 85 patients with stages 3-5 CKD but excluding patients on dialysis referred to the Kaiser Kidney Program were followed. Baseline serum intact parathyroid hormone (iPTH) and serum 25(OH)D levels were measured. All patients were administered ergocalciferol in doses ranging from 800 iu/day to 100,000 iu/week. We obtained serum levels of iPTH and 25(OH)D for a post-treatment endpoint after a median treatment period of 90 days. RESULTS: Pre- and post-treatment serum iPTH levels displayed a mean difference of 2.8 pmol/L (95% CI 1.3-4.4, P < 0.001). Patients with stage 4 CKD had a mean difference of 3.6 pmol/L (95% CI 1.7-5.5, P < 0.001) between pre- and post-iPTH levels. Serum iPTH levels decreased among CKD stages 3 and 5, but were not statistically significant. All CKD groups analysed in the present study had significant increases in serum 25(OH)D levels. None of the study population required cessation of vitamin D therapy and no adverse outcomes were reported. CONCLUSION: Ergocalciferol supplementation appears a safe and effective treatment for CKD populations which may raise levels of serum 25(OH)D levels and decrease iPTH levels.