Comparing Simultaneous Liver-Kidney Transplant Strategies: A Modified Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The proportion of patients with kidney failure at time of liver transplantation is at a historic high in the United States. The optimal timing of kidney transplantation with respect to the liver transplant is unknown. METHODS: We used a modified cost-effectiveness analysis to compare 4 strategies: the old system ("pre-OPTN"), the new Organ Procurement Transplant Network (OPTN) system since August 10, 2017 ("OPTN"), and 2 strategies which restrict simultaneous liver-kidney transplants ("safety net" and "stringent"). We measured "cost" by deployment of deceased donor kidneys (DDKs) to liver transplant recipients and effectiveness by life years (LYs) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) in liver transplant recipients. We validated our model against Scientific Registry for Transplant Recipients data. RESULTS: The OPTN, safety net and stringent strategies were on the efficiency frontier. By rank order, OPTN > safety net > stringent strategy in terms of LY, QALY, and DDK deployment. The pre-OPTN system was dominated, or outperformed, by all alternative strategies. The incremental LY per DDK between the strategies ranged from 1.30 to 1.85. The incremental QALY per DDK ranged from 1.11 to 2.03. CONCLUSIONS: These estimates quantify the "organ"-effectiveness of various kidney allocation strategies for liver transplant candidates. The OPTN system will likely deliver better liver transplant outcomes at the expense of more frequent deployment of DDKs to liver transplant recipients.

Management of hepatic encephalopathy in the hospital.

Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) develops in up to 50% of patients with cirrhosis and is a feature of decompensated cirrhosis. With the goal of reviewing the evidence for treatment and prevention of overt hepatic encephalopathy, pubmed was searched using search terms hepatic encephalopathy AND treatment, limited to human studies from January 1, 2003, through December 1, 2013, and supplemented by key references. The inpatient incidence of HE is approximately 23,000 annually, and management of these patients is common for internists and subspecialists. Treatment of the hospitalized patient with HE has changed in recent years. Treatment entails 2 phases: induction and maintenance of remission. Most cases of significant HE are precipitated by infection, gastrointestinal bleeding, medications, or other culprits. All patients should be evaluated for secondary triggers of HE, and treatment should be initiated with a nonabsorbable disaccharide (ie, lactulose) in most patients. Rifaximin (off label) can be added in patients not responding to lactulose. Neomycin is a less preferred alternative to rifaximin owing to its adverse effect profile. Other therapies, including zinc, L-ornithine-L-aspartate, and branched-chain amino acids, can be considered for patients not responding to disaccharides and nonabsorbable antibiotics. Large portosystemic shunts may be embolized in patients with medically refractory recurrent or severe HE with otherwise well-compensated cirrhosis. Molecular Adsorbent Recirculating System is now available for patients with severe HE who do not respond to medical therapy. It is critically important that patients hospitalized with significant HE continue maintenance therapy at the time of dismissal to prevent further episodes. Patients with a first-time episode of HE can be administered lactulose, and careful instructions should be provided to patients and caregivers about dose titration to achieve 3 bowel movements daily. Patients with recurrent HE episodes despite lactulose use benefit from the addition of rifaximin, which decreases the frequency of recurrent HE episodes and related hospitalizations. Last, patients and their families should be counseled about the risk of motor vehicle accidents, which require mandatory reporting to the Department of Motor Vehicles in some states.

Bayesian estimation, simulation and uncertainty analysis: the cost-effectiveness of ganciclovir prophylaxis in liver transplantation.

This paper demonstrates the usefulness of combining simulation with Bayesian estimation methods in analysis of cost-effectiveness data collected alongside a clinical trial. Specifically, we use Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to estimate a system of generalized linear models relating costs and outcomes to a disease process affected by treatment under alternative therapies. The MCMC draws are used as parameters in simulations which yield inference about the relative cost-effectiveness of the novel therapy under a variety of scenarios. Total parametric uncertainty is assessed directly by examining the joint distribution of simulated average incremental cost and effectiveness. The approach allows flexibility in assessing treatment in various counterfactual premises and quantifies the global effect of parametric uncertainty on a decision-maker's confidence in adopting one therapy over the other.