Ragweed pollen and allergic symptoms in children: Results from a three-year longitudinal study.

Common ragweed is a highly allergenic invasive species in Europe, expected to become widespread under climate change. Allergy to ragweed manifests as eye, nasal and lung symptoms, and children may retain these throughout life. The dose-response relationship between symptoms and pollen concentrations is unclear. We undertook a longitudinal study, assessing the association between ragweed pollen concentration and allergic eye, nasal and lung symptoms in children living under a range of ragweed pollen concentrations in Croatia. Over three years, 85 children completed daily diaries, detailing allergic symptoms alongside daily location, activities and medication, resulting in 10,130 individual daily entries. The daily ragweed pollen concentration for the children's locations was obtained, alongside daily weather and air pollution. Parents completed a home/lifestyle/medical questionnaire. Generalised Additive Mixed Models established the relationship between pollen concentrations and symptoms, alongside other covariates. Eye symptoms were associated with mean daily pollen concentration over four days (day of symptoms plus 3 previous days); 61 grains/m3/day (95%CI: 45, 100) was the threshold at which 50% of children reported symptoms. Nasal symptoms were associated with mean daily pollen concentration over 12 days (day of symptoms plus 11 previous days); the threshold for 50% of children reporting symptoms was 40 grains/m3/day (95%CI: 24, 87). Lung symptoms showed a relationship with mean daily pollen concentration over 19 days (day of symptoms plus 18 previous days), with a threshold of 71 grains/m3/day (95%CI: 59, 88). Taking medication on the day of symptoms showed higher odds, suggesting responsive behaviour. Taking medication on the day prior to symptoms showed lower odds of reporting, indicating preventative behaviour. Different symptoms in children demonstrate varying dose-response relationships with ragweed pollen concentrations. Each symptom type responded to pollen exposure over different time periods. Using medication prior to symptoms can reduce symptom presence. These findings can be used to better manage paediatric ragweed allergy symptoms.

Modifiable Risk Factors for Common Ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) Allergy and Disease in Children: A Case-Control Study.

Ragweed allergy is a major public health concern. Within Europe, ragweed is an introduced species and research has indicated that the amounts of ragweed pollen are likely to increase over Europe due to climate change, with corresponding increases in ragweed allergy. To address this threat, improving our understanding of predisposing factors for allergic sensitisation to ragweed and disease is necessary, specifically focusing upon factors that are potentially modifiable (i.e., environmental). In this study, a total of 4013 children aged 2⁻13 years were recruited across Croatia to undergo skin prick tests to determine sensitisation to ragweed and other aeroallergens. A parental questionnaire collected home environment, lifestyle, family and personal medical history, and socioeconomic information. Environmental variables were obtained using Geographical Information Systems and data from nearby pollen, weather, and air pollution stations. Logistic regression was performed (clustered on school) focusing on risk factors for allergic sensitisation and disease. Ragweed sensitisation was strongly associated with ragweed pollen at levels over 5000 grains m⁻3 year−1 and, above these levels, the risk of sensitisation was 12⁻16 times greater than in low pollen areas with about 400 grains m⁻3 year−1. Genetic factors were strongly associated with sensitisation but nearly all potentially modifiable factors were insignificant. This included measures of local land use and proximity to potential sources of ragweed pollen. Rural residence was protective (odds ratio (OR) 0.73, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.55⁻0.98), but the factors underlying this association were unclear. Being sensitised to ragweed doubled (OR 2.17, 95% CI 1.59⁻2.96) the risk of rhinoconjunctivitis. No other potentially modifiable risk factors were associated with rhinoconjunctivitis. Ragweed sensitisation was strongly associated with ragweed pollen, and sensitisation was significantly associated with rhinoconjunctivitis. Apart from ragweed pollen levels, few other potentially modifiable factors were significantly associated with ragweed sensitisation. Hence, strategies to lower the risk of sensitisation should focus upon ragweed control.

Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe.

BACKGROUND: Globally, pollen allergy is a major public health problem, but a fundamental unknown is the likely impact of climate change. To our knowledge, this is the first study to quantify the consequences of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans. OBJECTIVES: We produced quantitative estimates of the potential impact of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans, focusing upon common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) in Europe. METHODS: A process-based model estimated the change in ragweed's range under climate change. A second model simulated current and future ragweed pollen levels. These findings were translated into health burdens using a dose-response curve generated from a systematic review and from current and future population data. Models considered two different suites of regional climate/pollen models, two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios [Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5], and three different plant invasion scenarios. RESULTS: Our primary estimates indicated that sensitization to ragweed will more than double in Europe, from 33 to 77 million people, by 2041-2060. According to our projections, sensitization will increase in countries with an existing ragweed problem (e.g., Hungary, the Balkans), but the greatest proportional increases will occur where sensitization is uncommon (e.g., Germany, Poland, France). Higher pollen concentrations and a longer pollen season may also increase the severity of symptoms. Our model projections were driven predominantly by changes in climate (66%) but were also influenced by current trends in the spread of this invasive plant species. Assumptions about the rate at which ragweed spreads throughout Europe had a large influence upon the results. CONCLUSIONS: Our quantitative estimates indicate that ragweed pollen allergy will become a common health problem across Europe, expanding into areas where it is currently uncommon. Control of ragweed spread may be an important adaptation strategy in response to climate change. Citation: Lake IR, Jones NR, Agnew M, Goodess CM, Giorgi F, Hamaoui-Laguel L, Semenov MA, Solomon F, Storkey J, Vautard R, Epstein MM. 2017. Climate change and future pollen allergy in Europe. Environ Health Perspect 125:385-391; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP173.