RESUMEN
Authors summarize preliminary results from the first round of a two-round modified Delphi study called "Facing the Uncertain Future." Health care experts were asked to comment on the status of the health care industry in 1994 when the study began and their predictions for change by 1999. Major findings based on the 580 responses received include: (1) the continued movement of the U.S. health care industry from a primarily private insurance industry to one in which medical groups and hospitals will be members of integrated delivery systems/networks (IDS/N); (2) the increasing dominance of the components of IDS/Ns in 1999 (components are defined as: medical practices, system hospitals, managed care organizations and IDS/Ns); and (3) the potential effects of IDS/Ns on the health care industry, including: increases in cost effectiveness, quality of administrative management and the quality of physician leadership, as well as decreases in availability of advanced medical technology and the duplication of ancillary services, facilities and equipment. The study is being conducted jointly by the Medical Group Management Association and Texas Tech University with funding from Abbott Laboratories.