Development and validation of a risk prediction model for high-risk adenomas at the time of first screening colonoscopy among screening aged Canadians.

The aim of this study was to develop a risk prediction model for high risk adenomas (HRAs) detected at screening colonoscopy based on readily available participant information. The cohort consisted of 3035 participants aged 50 to 74 years with no history of cancer who underwent a primary screening colonoscopy at a centralized colon cancer screening centre between 2008 and 2016. A multivariable logistic regression model was created using CRC risk factors identified from prior research. Model covariates were collected from a baseline questionnaire and included participant demographics (age and sex), lifestyle parameters (body mass index, alcohol, smoking, and vitamin D supplement use) and medical history (family history of CRC and diabetes). Mean participant age was 58.8 years, and 54.7% were male. 249 participants with HRAs were identified (8.2%). An adjusted c-statistic of 0.67 was calculated, and a specificity and negative predictive value of 97.2% (95% CI: 96.5-97.8) and 92.5% (95% CI: 92.2-92.8) for the detection of HRAs, respectively, were achieved using 20% predicted probability as a high-risk threshold. However, only a sensitivity of 12.1% (95% CI: 8.3-16.8) was achieved. Our model has moderate predictive ability, with strengths in being able to rule out those with an absence of HRAs on screening colonoscopy. Maximizing screening efficiency through improved risk prediction can enhance resource allocation. Ultimately, this model has the potential to improve patient care by reducing unnecessary colonoscopies, limiting this invasive procedure to those most likely to have significant findings.

Fracture Risk in Women with Breast Cancer Initiating Aromatase Inhibitor Therapy: A Registry-Based Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Aromatase inhibitors (AIs) used in breast cancer induce loss in bone mineral density (BMD) and are reported to increase fracture risk. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using a population-based BMD registry, we identified women aged at least 40 years initiating AIs for breast cancer with at least 12 months of AI exposure (n = 1,775), women with breast cancer not receiving AIs (n = 1,016), and women from the general population (n = 34,205). Fracture outcomes were assessed to March 31, 2017 (mean, 6.2 years for AI users). RESULTS: At baseline, AI users had higher body mass index (BMI), higher BMD, lower osteoporosis prevalence, and fewer prior fractures than women from the general population or women with breast cancer without AI use (all p < .001). After adjusting for all covariates, AI users were not at significantly greater risk for major osteoporotic fractures (hazard ratio [HR], 1.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.93-1.42), hip fracture (HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.56-1.43), or any fracture (HR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.88-1.28) compared with the general population. CONCLUSION: Higher baseline BMI, BMD, and lower prevalence of prior fracture at baseline may offset the adverse effects of AI exposure. Although confirmatory data from large cohort studies are required, our findings challenge the view that all women with breast cancer initiating AI therapy should be considered at high risk for fractures. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: In a population-based observational registry that included 1,775 patients initiating long-term aromatase inhibitor therapy, risk for major osteoporotic fracture, hip fracture, or any fracture was similar to the general population. Higher baseline body mass index, bone mineral density, and lower prevalence of prior fracture at baseline may offset the adverse effects of aromatase inhibitor exposure.

Health-related quality of life for First Nations and Caucasian women in the First Nations Bone Health Study.

OBJECTIVE: Studies about the health of Indigenous (i.e., original inhabitants) populations often focus on chronic diseases and risk behaviors, emphasizing physical aspects of health. Our objective was to test for differences in self-reported health-related quality of life (HRQOL), which provides a multidimensional and holistic perspective on health, between First Nations (one group of Indigenous peoples) and Caucasian women. Data were from the First Nations Bone Health Study, conducted in the Canadian province of Manitoba. HRQOL was measured using the validated Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short Form Health Survey (SF-36). It captures respondent's perceptions of eight health domains, as well as overall mental and physical health components. RESULTS: Analyses were conducted for 707 participants of which 47.4% were of First Nations origin. First Nations respondents had significantly lower unadjusted scores (p < 0.05) than Caucasian respondents on all SF-36 dimensions, except bodily pain and vitality. They also had significantly lower overall mental health scores. After adjusting for multiple determinants of health (e.g., age, education, substance use), differences were no longer statistically significant, except for the social functioning and role emotional domains and overall mental health component. Complex cultural factors are likely responsible for the persistent mental health inequalities experienced by First Nations women.

Temporal trends in obesity, osteoporosis treatment, bone mineral density, and fracture rates: a population-based historical cohort study.

Diverging international trends in fracture rates have been observed, with most reports showing that fracture rates have stabilized or decreased in North American and many European populations. We studied two complementary population-based historical cohorts from the Province of Manitoba, Canada (1996-2006) to determine whether declining osteoporotic fracture rates in Canada are attributable to trends in obesity, osteoporosis treatment, or bone mineral density (BMD). The Population Fracture Registry included women aged 50 years and older with major osteoporotic fractures, and was used to assess impact of changes in osteoporosis treatment. The BMD Registry included all women aged 50 years and older undergoing BMD tests, and was used to assess impact of changes in obesity and BMD. Model-based estimates of temporal changes in fracture rates (Fracture Registry) were calculated. Temporal changes in obesity and BMD and their association with fracture rates (BMD Registry) were estimated. In the Fracture Registry (n=27,341), fracture rates declined 1.6% per year (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3% to 2.0%). Although osteoporosis treatment increased from 5.6% to 17.4%, the decline in fractures was independent of osteoporosis treatment. In the BMD Registry (n=36,587), obesity increased from 12.7% to 27.4%. Femoral neck BMD increased 0.52% per year and lumbar spine BMD increased 0.32% per year after covariate adjustment (p<0.001). Major osteoporotic fracture rates decreased in models that did not include femoral neck BMD (fully adjusted annual change -1.8%; 95% CI, -2.9 to -0.5), but adjusting for femoral neck BMD accounted for the observed reduction (annual change -0.5%; 95% CI, -1.8 to +1.0). In summary, major osteoporotic fracture rates declined substantially and linearly from 1996 to 2006, and this was explained by improvements in BMD rather than greater rates of obesity or osteoporosis treatment.