RESUMEN
The 'at risk mental state' (ARMS) paradigm has been introduced in psychiatry to study prodromal phases of schizophrenia. With time it was seen that the ARMS state can also precede mental disorders other than schizophrenia, such as depression and anxiety. However, several problems hamper the paradigm's use in preventative medicine, such as varying transition rates across studies, the use of non-naturalistic samples, and the multifactorial nature of psychiatric disorders. To strengthen ARMS predictive power, there is a need for a holistic model incorporating-in an unbiased fashion-the small-effect factors that cause mental disorders. Bayesian networks, a probabilistic graphical model, was used in a populational cohort of 83 ARMS individuals to predict conversion to psychiatric illness. Nine predictors-including state, trait, biological and environmental factors-were inputted. Dopamine receptor 2 polymorphism, high private religiosity, and childhood trauma remained in the final model, which reached an 85.51% (SD = 0.1190) accuracy level in predicting conversion. This is the first time a robust model was produced with Bayesian networks to predict psychiatric illness among at risk individuals from the general population. This could be an important tool to strengthen predictive measures in psychiatry which should be replicated in larger samples to provide the model further learning.
Asunto(s)
Trastornos Mentales/epidemiología , Adulto , Experiencias Adversas de la Infancia/estadística & datos numéricos , Teorema de Bayes , Femenino , Humanos , Aprendizaje Automático , Masculino , Trastornos Mentales/genética , Trastornos Mentales/psicología , Polimorfismo de Nucleótido Simple , Receptores de Dopamina D2/genética , ReligiónRESUMEN
ABSTRACT: Psychotic experiences are common experiences shared by a considerable part of the world's population. Moreover, most of the individuals who report these experiences also report those called spiritual and dissociative phenomena. In specific culture and religious backgrounds, these experiences are frequently seen as a part of normal human experiences, usually called mediumship. We report a case of a famous Brazilian medium with 90 years of experiencing psychotic-like, dissociative and/or spiritual experiences, but coped well with the experiences and never sought psychiatric or psychological assistance. The medium received several honorific prizes, such as doctor honoris causa from different institutions, published more than 200 books, and ran a nonprofit organization that takes care of 5000 people daily. Finally, we review the literature on this topic and stress the urge for more research aiming to distinguish pathological and nonpathological psychotic experiences to avoid overmedicalization and iatrogenic treatments.