Analysis of English general practice level data linking medication levels, service activity and demography to levels of glycaemic control being achieved in type 2 diabetes to improve clinical practice and patient outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: Evaluate relative clinical effectiveness of treatment options for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) using a statistical model of real-world evidence within UK general practitioner practices (GPP), to quantify the opportunities for diabetes care performance improvement. METHOD: From the National Diabetes Audit in 2015-2016 and 2016-2017, GPP target glycaemic control (TGC-%HbA1c ≤58 mmol/mol) and higher glycaemic risk (HGR -%HbA1c results >86 mmol/mol) outcomes were linked using multivariate linear regression to prescribing, demographics and practice service indicators. This was carried out both cross-sectionally (XS) (within year) and longitudinally (Lo) (across years) on 35 indicators. Standardised ß coefficients were used to show relative level of impact of each factor. Improvement opportunity was calculated as impact on TGC & HGR numbers. RESULTS: Values from 6525 GPP with 2.7 million T2DM individuals were included. The cross-sectional model accounted for up to 28% TGC variance and 35% HGR variance, and the longitudinal model accounted for up to 9% TGC and 17% HGR variance. Practice service indicators including % achieving routine checks/blood pressure/cholesterol control targets were positively correlated, while demographic indicators including % younger age/social deprivation/white ethnicity were negatively correlated. The ß values for selected molecules are shown as (increased TGC; decreased HGR), canagliflozin (XS 0.07;0.145/Lo 0.04;0.07), metformin (XS 0.12;0.04/Lo -;-), sitagliptin (XS 0.06;0.02/Lo 0.10;0.06), empagliflozin (XS-;0.07/Lo 0.09;0.07), dapagliflozin (XS -;0.04/Lo -;0.4), sulphonylurea (XS -0.18;-0.12/Lo-;-) and insulin (XS-0.14;0.02/ Lo-0.09;-). Moving all GPP prescribing and interventions to the equivalent of the top performing decile of GPP could result in total patients in TGC increasing from 1.90 million to 2.14 million, and total HGR falling from 191 000 to 123 000. CONCLUSIONS: GPP using more legacy therapies such as sulphonylurea/insulin demonstrate poorer outcomes, while those applying holistic patient management/use of newer molecules demonstrate improved glycaemic outcomes. If all GPP moved service levels/prescribing to those of the top decile, both TGC/HGR could be substantially improved.

Male hypogonadism: 14-year prospective outcome in 550 men with type 2 diabetes.

INTRODUCTION: Hypogonadism is more prevalent in men with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) (25%-40%) than in men without T2DM. Hypogonadism has been associated with poorer glycaemic outcomes and increased cardiovascular morbidity/mortality. We report a 14-year follow-up study to evaluate the influence of baseline testosterone level on T2DM outcomes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A total of 550 men with T2DM underwent baseline total testosterone and dihydrotestosterone measurement by tandem mass spectrometry. Mean age of the men was 59.7 ± 12 (mean ± SD) years. Sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) was measured and free testosterone estimated. Patients were followed up between 2002 and 2016. Mean follow-up period was 12.2 ± 4 years using the Salford (UK) Integrated Health Records system. RESULTS: Mean baseline total testosterone was 13.7 ± 5.8 nmol/L, and mean free testosterone was 245.7 ± 88.0 pmol/L. Mean for low total testosterone (<10 nmol/L) was 7.6 ± 2.0 nmol/L (n = 154) and 142 men had a free testosterone <190 pmol/L. During the 14-year duration follow-up, 22% of men experienced a myocardial infarction, 18% experienced a stroke, 11% developed angina, 14% underwent coronary revascularization. About 38% of the men initially recruited died. A lower total testosterone was associated with a higher body mass index (kg/m2) at follow-up: regression coefficient -0.30 (95% CI -0.445 to -0.157), P = 0.0001. The mortality rate was higher in patients with lower total testosterone compared to normal baseline total testosterone (5.0% vs 2.8% per year, P < 0.0001). A similar phenomenon was seen for dihydrotestosterone (4.3% vs 2.9% per year, P = 0.002) for normal vs low dihydrotestosterone) and for lower SHBG. Over the whole follow-up period 36.1% (143/396), men with normal baseline testosterone died vs 55.8% (86/154) of hypogonadal men at baseline. In Cox regression, the age-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for higher mortality associated with low total testosterone was 1.54 (95% CI: 1.2-2.0, P < 0.002), corresponding to a 3.2 year reduced life expectancy for hypogonadal T2DM men. CONCLUSION: Low testosterone and dihydrotestosterone levels are associated with higher all-cause mortality in T2DM men. Hypogonadal men with T2DM should be considered as very high risk for cardiovascular events/death.

Have the 10-year outcomes of patients with early inflammatory arthritis improved in the new millennium compared with the decade before? Results from the Norfolk Arthritis Register.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the 10-year outcome (disease activity, disability, mortality) of two cohorts of patients with inflammatory polyarthritis (IP) recruited 10 years apart. METHODS: Patients with IP were recruited to the Norfolk Arthritis Register from 1990 to 1994 (cohort 1 (C1)) and from 2000 to 2004 (cohort 2 (C2)). Demographic and clinical data were collected at baseline and at years 1, 2, 3, 5, 7 and 10. Longitudinal disease activity (swollen/tender 51 joint counts (SJC51/TJC51)) and disability (Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ)) were compared between the cohorts using population-average negative binomial regression and generalised estimating equation analysis, respectively. Risk of 10-year mortality was compared between cohorts using Cox models. Risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality was compared between cohorts using competing risks analysis. Mortality rate ratios (MRR), adjusted for changes in mortality risk of the general population, were calculated using Poisson regression. RESULTS: In total 1653 patients were recruited (C1=1022, C2=631). Patients in C2 had 17% lower SJC51 than C1 over 10 years (95% CI -23% to -10%), whereas TJC51 and HAQ were comparable. C2 patients had reduced risk of all-cause and CVD mortality compared with C1 (all-cause: HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.95; CVD: subhazard ratio 0.58, 95% CI 0.37 to 0.93). After accounting for changes in mortality risk in the general population, the difference in mortality was non-significant (all-cause: MRR 0.78, 95% CI 0.56 to 1.10; CVD: MRR 0.77, 95% CI 0.48 to 1.24). CONCLUSION: Disease activity significantly improved in the new millennium, whereas disability and mortality were unchanged.

Risk of Serious Infection in Patients with Psoriasis Receiving Biologic Therapies: A Prospective Cohort Study from the British Association of Dermatologists Biologic Interventions Register (BADBIR).

Serious infection is a concern for patients with psoriasis receiving biologic therapies. We assessed the risk of serious infections for biologics used to treat psoriasis by comparison with a cohort receiving non-biologic systemic therapies in a propensity score-weighted Cox proportional hazards model using data from the British Association of Dermatologists Biologic Interventions Register. Overall, 1,352; 3,271; and 994 participants were included in the etanercept, adalimumab, ustekinumab cohorts, respectively, and 3,421 participants were in the non-biologic cohort. A total of 283 patients had a serious infection; the incidence rates with 95% confidence intervals (CI) per 1,000 person-years were as follows: non-biologic, 14.2 (11.5-17.4); etanercept, 15.3 (11.6-20.1); adalimumab, 13.9 (11.4-16.6); and ustekinumab, 15.1 (10.8-21.1). No significant increases in the risk of serious infection were observed for etanercept (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.10, 95% CI = 0.75-1.60), adalimumab (HR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.69-1.26), or ustekinumab (HR = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.60-1.41) compared with non-biologic systemic therapies or methotrexate-only (etanercept: HR = 1.47, 95% CI = 0.95-2.28; adalimumab: HR = 1.26, 95% CI = 0.86-1.84; ustekinumab: HR = 1.22, 95% CI = 0.75-1.99). The risk of serious infection should not be a key discriminator for patients and clinicians when choosing between non-biologic systemic therapies, etanercept, adalimumab, and ustekinumab for the treatment of psoriasis.

Differential Drug Survival of Biologic Therapies for the Treatment of Psoriasis: A Prospective Observational Cohort Study from the British Association of Dermatologists Biologic Interventions Register (BADBIR).

Drug survival reflects a drug's effectiveness, safety, and tolerability. We assessed the drug survival of biologics used to treat psoriasis in a prospective national pharmacovigilance cohort (British Association of Dermatologists Biologic Interventions Register (BADBIR)). The survival rates of the first course of biologics for 3,523 biologic-naive patients with chronic plaque psoriasis were compared using survival analysis techniques and predictors of discontinuation analyzed using a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. Data for patients on adalimumab (n=1,879), etanercept (n=1,098), infliximab (n=96), and ustekinumab (n=450) were available. The overall survival rate in the first year was 77%, falling to 53% in the third year. Multivariate analysis showed that female gender (hazard ratio (HR) 1.22; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.09-1.37), being a current smoker (HR 1.19; 95% CI: 1.03-1.38), and a higher baseline dermatology life quality index (HR 1.01; 95% CI: 1.00-1.02) were predictors of discontinuation. Presence of psoriatic arthritis (HR 0.82; 95% CI: 0.71-0.96) was a predictor for drug survival. As compared with adalimumab, patients on etanercept (HR 1.63; 95% CI: 1.45-1.84) or infliximab (HR 1.56; 95% CI: 1.16-2.09) were more likely to discontinue therapy, whereas patients on ustekinumab were more likely to persist (HR 0.48; 95% CI: 0.37-0.62). After accounting for relevant covariates, ustekinumab had the highest first-course drug survival. The results of this study will aid clinical decision making when choosing biologic therapy for psoriasis patients.

Early remission is associated with improved survival in patients with inflammatory polyarthritis: results from the Norfolk Arthritis Register.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to evaluate whether the early achievement of clinical remission influences overall survival in an inception cohort of patients with inflammatory polyarthritis (IP). METHODS: Consecutive early IP patients, recruited to a primary care based inception cohort from 1990 to 1994 and from 2000 to 2004 were eligible for this study. Remission was defined as absence of clinically detectable joint inflammation on a 51-joint count. In sensitivity analyses, less stringent definitions of remission were used, based on 28-joint counts. Remission was assessed at 1, 2 and 3 years after baseline. All patients were flagged with the national death register. Censoring was set at 1 May 2011. The effect of remission on mortality was analysed using the Cox proportional hazard regression model, and presented as HRs and 95% CIs. RESULTS: A total of 1251 patients were included in the analyses. Having been in remission at least once within the first 3 years of follow-up was associated with a significantly lower risk of death: HR 0.72 (95% CI 0.55 to 0.94). Patients who were in remission 1 year after the baseline assessments and had persistent remission over time had the greatest reduction in mortality risk compared with patients who never achieved remission within the first 3 years of follow-up: HR 0.58 (95% CI 0.37 to 0.91). Remission according to less stringent definitions was associated with progressively lower protective effect. CONCLUSIONS: Early and sustained remission is associated with decreased all-cause mortality in patients with IP. This result supports clinical remission as the target in the management of IP.

N-terminal pro-brain-type natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) and mortality risk in early inflammatory polyarthritis: results from the Norfolk Arthritis Registry (NOAR).

BACKGROUND: We measured N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP), a marker of cardiac dysfunction, in an inception cohort with early inflammatory polyarthritis (IP) and assessed its association with disease phenotype, cardiovascular disease (CVD), all-cause and CVD related mortality. METHODS: Subjects with early IP were recruited to the Norfolk Arthritis Register from January 2000 to December 2008 and followed up to death or until March 2010 including any data from the national death register. The associations of baseline NT-pro-BNP with IP related factors and CVD were assessed by linear regression. Cox proportional hazards models examined the independent association of baseline NT-pro-BNP with all-cause and CVD mortality. RESULTS: We studied 960 early IP subjects; 163 (17%) had prior CVD. 373 (39%) patients had a baseline NT-pro-BNP levels ≥ 100 pg/ml. NT-pro-BNP was associated with age, female gender, HAQ score, CRP, current smoking, history of hypertension, prior CVD and the presence of carotid plaque. 92 (10%) IP subjects died including 31 (3%) from CVD. In an age and gender adjusted analysis, having a raised NT-pro-BNP level (≥ 100 pg/ml) was associated with both all-cause and CVD mortality (adjusted HR (95% CI) 2.36 (1.42 to 3.94) and 3.40 (1.28 to 9.03), respectively). These findings were robust to adjustment for conventional CVD risk factors and prevalent CVD. CONCLUSIONS: In early IP patients, elevated NT-pro-BNP is related to HAQ and CRP and predicts all-cause and CVD mortality independently of conventional CVD risk factors. Further study is required to identify whether NT-pro-BNP may be clinically useful in targeting intensive interventions to IP patients at greatest risk of CVD.

Early functional disability predicts both all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in people with inflammatory polyarthritis: results from the Norfolk Arthritis Register.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the predictive value of early functional disability in patients with inflammatory polyarthritis (IP), for all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. METHODS: 1010 subjects with new-onset IP from the Norfolk Arthritis Register were studied. All were seen at baseline and at 1 year. Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) scores were obtained at both time points. Vital status at 10 years from registration was established through central records. Mortality (all-cause and CVD) per 1000 person-years were calculated by HAQ stratum (HAQ scores<1, 1-2 and>or=2). The predictive value of HAQ (per unit increase) at the two time points, adjusted for age at onset of symptom, sex and other factors found to predict mortality, was assessed using Cox regression models. The analysis was repeated for those who satisfied the 1987 American College of Rheumatology criteria for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) by 5 years. RESULTS: By 10 years, 171 (16.9%) subjects had died. 89 deaths (52%) were attributed to CVD. Mortality was greatest in the highest HAQ group at both time points. Following adjustment for other predictors, HAQ score at year 1 remained a significant predictor of all-cause mortality (HR 1.46; 95% CI 1.15 to 1.85) and CVD mortality (HR 1.49; 95% CI 1.12 to 1.97). The predictive value of HAQ at year 1 was similar in the RA subgroup. CONCLUSIONS: Our data show that at 1 year of follow-up, HAQ score is an important independent predictor of subsequent all-cause and CVD mortalities in people with IP and RA. Baseline HAQ scores are of less value.

Long-term mortality amongst Gulf War Veterans: is there a relationship with experiences during deployment and subsequent morbidity?

BACKGROUND: Gulf War Veterans have previously been shown to have, in the short-term, an excess risk of death from 'external' (i.e. non-disease) causes of death. This study aims to determine whether there remains an excess of non-disease-related deaths in Gulf Veterans, 13 years after deployment, and, for the first time, to determine whether there is a relationship between experiences reported in the Gulf, post-war symptoms, and subsequent mortality experience. METHODS: We conducted a cohort study with follow-up from April 1, 1991 (the end of the Gulf War) to June 30, 2004. Participants were 53 462 Gulf War Veterans and a cohort of military personnel, matched for age-group, sex, rank, service and level of fitness, who were not deployed to the Gulf. The outcome measure used was mortality as recorded on the NHS central register. RESULTS: There is no difference, 13 years after the end of the Gulf War, in the overall mortality experience of Gulf War Veterans. The excess in non-disease-related deaths previously reported is confined to the initial 7 years of follow-up [mortality rate ratio (MRR) 1.31, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.06-1.63] rather than the more recent period (MRR 1.05, 95% CI 0.83-1.33). Overall experiences reported during Gulf deployment did not influence subsequent risk of dying, but there was non-significant increased risk of dying from a disease-related death (MRR 1.99, 95% CI 0.98-4.04) associated with reported exposure to depleted uranium and of a non-disease-related death associated with reporting handling of pesticides (MRR 2.05, 95% CI 0.91-4.61). Reporting of morbidity in the health surveys conducted was not related to future risk of death. CONCLUSION: The higher rates of non-disease-related deaths in Gulf War Veterans is not evident in the period of follow-up since 1997. Neither the excess morbidity reported in health surveys nor the experiences during deployment significantly influenced future mortality. The two non-significant associations found (reported depleted uranium exposure and disease death, reporting handling pesticides and non-disease deaths) need to be considered in the context of the number of possible associations examined and potential biases-although they are biologically plausible.

Mortality in early inflammatory polyarthritis: cardiovascular mortality is increased in seropositive patients.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the degree and causes of any excess mortality observed during the early years of inflammatory polyarthritis (IP). METHODS: Between 1990 and 1994, a total of 1,236 patients were registered with the Norfolk Arthritis Register, a primary care-based inception cohort. All patients were tracked on the National Health Service Central Register for notification of death. The vital status of each patient was determined as of December 31, 1999. Causes of death were coded according to the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision. Expected death rates were calculated using annual death rates for the Norfolk population. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated for all IP patients and for the subgroups of patients who did and did not satisfy the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) 1987 criteria for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) at baseline, as well as for the subgroups who were and were not rheumatoid factor (RF) positive at baseline. RESULTS: By December 31, 1999, 160 patients (13%; 79 women and 81 men) had died. The median duration of followup in the entire cohort was 6.9 years. Mortality rates were not significantly increased in the entire group of patients with IP or in the subgroup who met the ACR 1987 criteria for RA at baseline. In contrast, RF-positive patients had an increased rate of death from all causes (SMR in men 1.51, in women 1.41). Cardiovascular disease was the most common cause of death. The majority of the excess mortality in the RF-positive patients could be attributed to cardiovascular causes (SMR in men 1.34, in women 2.02). CONCLUSION: Excess mortality in the early years of IP is confined to patients who are seropositive for RF. While excess cardiovascular mortality has been described in patients with established RA, this is the first report of premature death from heart disease in the early years of IP.