Extracellular Volume Associates With Outcomes More Strongly Than Native or Post-Contrast Myocardial T1.

OBJECTIVES: Because risk stratification data represents a key domain of biomarker validation, we compared associations between outcomes and various cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) metrics quantifying myocardial fibrosis (MF) in noninfarcted myocardium: extracellular volume fraction (ECV), native T1, post-contrast T1, and partition coefficient. BACKGROUND: MF associates with vulnerability to adverse events (e.g., mortality and hospitalization for heart failure [HHF]), but investigators still debate its optimal measurement; most histological validation data show strongest ECV correlations with MF. METHODS: We enrolled 1,714 consecutive patients without amyloidosis or hypertrophic cardiomyopathy from a single CMR referral center serving an integrated healthcare network. We measured T1 (MOdified Look-Locker Inversion recovery [MOLLI]) in nonenhanced myocardium, averaged from 2 short-axis slices (basal and mid) before and 15 to 20 min after a gadolinium contrast bolus. We compared chi-square test values from CMR MF measures in univariable and multivariable Cox regression models. We assessed "dose-response" relationships in Kaplan-Meier curves using log-rank statistics for quartile strata. We also computed net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI for Cox models with ECV vs. native T1). RESULTS: Over a median of 5.6 years, 374 events occurred after CMR (162 HHF events and 279 deaths, 67 with both). ECV yielded the best separation of Kaplan-Meier curves and the highest log-rank statistics. In univariable and multivariable models, ECV associated most strongly with outcomes, demonstrating the highest chi-square test values. Native T1 or post-contrast T1 did not associate with outcomes in the multivariable model. ECV provided added prognostic value to models with native T1, for example, in multivariable models IDI = 0.0037 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.0009 to 0.0071), p = 0.02; NRI = 0.151 (95% CI: 0.022 to 0.292), p = 0.04. CONCLUSIONS: Analogous to histological previously published validation data, ECV myocardial fibrosis measures exhibited more robust associations with outcomes than other surrogate CMR MF measures. Superior risk stratification by ECV supports claims that ECV optimally measures MF in noninfarcted myocardium.

Temporal Relation Between Myocardial Fibrosis and Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction: Association With Baseline Disease Severity and Subsequent Outcome.

Importance: Among myriad changes occurring during the evolution of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF), cardiomyocyte-extracellular matrix interactions from excess collagen may affect microvascular, mechanical, and electrical function. Objective: To investigate whether myocardial fibrosis (MF) is similarly prevalent both in those with HFpEF and those at risk for HFpEF, similarly associating with disease severity and outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants: Observational cohort study from June 1, 2010, to September 17, 2015, with follow-up until December 14, 2015, at a cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) center serving an integrated health system. Consecutive patients with preserved systolic function referred for CMR were eligible. Cardiovascular magnetic resonance was used to exclude patients with cardiac amyloidosis (n = 19). Exposures: Myocardial fibrosis quantified by extracellular volume (ECV) CMR measures. Main Outcome and Measures: Baseline BNP; subsequent hospitalization for heart failure or death. Results: Of 1174 patients identified (537 [46%] female; median [interquartile range {IQR}] age, 56 [44-66] years), 250 were "at risk" for HFpEF given elevated brain-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) level; 160 had HFpEF by documented clinical diagnosis, and 745 did not have HFpEF. Patients either at risk for HFpEF or with HFpEF demonstrated similarly higher prevalence/extent of MF and worse prognosis compared with patients with no HFpEF. Among those at risk for HFpEF or with HFpEF, the actual diagnosis of HFpEF was not associated with significant differences in MF (median ECV, 28.2%; IQR, 26.2%-30.7% vs 28.3%; IQR, 25.5%-31.4%; P = .60) or prognosis (log-rank 0.8; P = .38). Over a median of 1.9 years, 61 patients at risk for HFpEF or with HFpEF experienced adverse events (19 hospitalization for heart failure, 48 deaths, 6 with both). In those with HFpEF, ECV was associated with baseline log BNP (disease severity surrogate) in multivariable linear regression models, and was associated with outcomes in multivariable Cox regression models (eg, hazard ratio 1.75 per 5% increase in ECV, 95% CI, 1.25-2.45; P = .001 in stepwise model) whether grouped with patients at risk for HFpEF or not. Conclusions and Relevance: Among myriad changes occurring during the apparent evolution of HFpEF where elevated BNP is prevalent, MF was similarly prevalent in those with or at risk for HFpEF. Conceivably, MF might precede clinical HFpEF diagnosis. Regardless, MF was associated with disease severity (ie, BNP) and outcomes. Whether cells and secretomes mediating MF represent therapeutic targets in HFpEF warrants further evaluation.