An Assessment of the Performance of the PLUS+ Tool in Supporting the Evaluation of Water Framework Directive Compliance in Scottish Standing Waters.

Phosphorus is one of the main causes of waterbodies in Scotland being at less than good ecological status (GES) in terms of the water framework directive (WFD). In Scotland, there are more than 8000 standing waters, defined as lakes and reservoirs that have a surface area of more than 0.5 km2. Only about 330 of these are monitored routinely to assess compliance with the WFD. The export coefficient tool PLUS+ (phosphorus land use and slope) has been developed to estimate total phosphorus (TP) concentrations in the unmonitored sites; modelled values are then compared to WFD target concentrations for high, good, moderate, poor, and bad status to assess compliance. These type-specific or site-specific targets are set by the regulatory authority and form part of a suite of physical, chemical, and ecological targets that are used to assess GES, all of which must be met. During development, the PLUS+ tool was applied to 323 monitored catchments and 7471 unmonitored catchments. The efficacy of the tool was assessed against TP concentrations observed in 2014 and found to perform well in the rural catchments. 51% of standing waters had the same modelled and observed WFD class (i.e., High, Good, Moderate, Poor, Bad), and a further 40% of standing waters had a modelled WFD class that was within one class of observed water quality. The tool performed less well in catchments with larger inputs of TP from urban sources (e.g., sewage). The greatest deviations between measured and modelled classes were explained by the shortage of information on wastewater treatment works, fish farms, migratory birds, levels of uncertainty in TP measurements, and the amount of in-lake re-cycling of P. The limitations of the tool are assessed using data from six well documented case study sites and recommendations for improving the model performance are proposed.

Modeling the Ecological Impact of Phosphorus in Catchments with Multiple Environmental Stressors.

The broken phosphorus (P) cycle has led to widespread eutrophication of freshwaters. Despite reductions in anthropogenic nutrient inputs that have led to improvement in the chemical status of running waters, corresponding improvements in their ecological status are often not observed. We tested a novel combination of complementary statistical modeling approaches, including random-effect regression trees and compositional and ordinary linear mixed models, to examine the potential reasons for this disparity, using low-frequency regulatory data available to catchment managers. A benthic Trophic Diatom Index (TDI) was linked to potential stressors, including nutrient concentrations, soluble reactive P (SRP) loads from different sources, land cover, and catchment hydrological characteristics. Modeling suggested that SRP, traditionally considered the bioavailable component, may not be the best indicator of ecological impacts of P, as shown by a stronger and spatially more variable negative relationship between total P (TP) concentrations and TDI. Nitrate-N ( < 0.001) and TP ( = 0.002) also showed negative relationship with TDI in models where land cover was not included. Land cover had the strongest influence on the ecological response. The positive effect of seminatural land cover ( < 0.001) and negative effect of urban land cover ( = 0.030) may be related to differentiated bioavailability of P fractions in catchments with different characteristics (e.g., P loads from point vs. diffuse sources) as well as resilience factors such as hydro-morphology and habitat condition, supporting the need for further research into factors affecting this stressor-response relationship in different catchment types. Advanced statistical modeling indicated that to achieve desired ecological status, future catchment-specific mitigation should target P impacts alongside multiple stressors.