Prevention of Neural Tube Defects in Europe: A Public Health Failure.

Objective: Thirty years ago it was demonstrated that folic acid taken before pregnancy and in early pregnancy reduced the risk of a neural tube defect (NTD). Despite Public Health Initiatives across Europe recommending that women take 0.4 mg folic acid before becoming pregnant and during the first trimester, the prevalence of NTD pregnancies has not materially decreased in the EU since 1998, in contrast to the dramatic fall observed in the USA. This study aimed to estimate the number of NTD pregnancies that would have been prevented if flour had been fortified with folic acid in Europe from 1998 as it had been in the USA. Design and Setting: The number of NTD pregnancies from 1998 to 2017 that would have been prevented if folic acid fortification had been implemented in the 28 countries who were members of the European Union in 2019 was predicted was predicted using data on NTD prevalence from 35 EUROCAT congenital anomaly registries and literature searches for population serum folate levels and folic acid supplementation. Results: From 1998 to 2017 an estimated 95,213 NTD pregnancies occurred amongst 104 million births in the 28 countries in the EU, a prevalence of 0.92 per 1,000 births. The median serum folate level in Europe over this time period was estimated to be 14.1 µg/L. There is a lack of information about women taking folic acid supplements before becoming pregnant and during the first trimester of pregnancy, with one meta-analysis indicating that around 25% of women did so. An estimated 14,600 NTD pregnancies may have been prevented if the European countries had implemented fortification at the level adopted by the USA in 1998 and 25% of women took folic acid supplements. An estimated 19,500 NTD pregnancies would have been prevented if no women took folic acid supplements. Conclusions: This study suggests that failure to implement mandatory folic acid fortification in the 28 European countries has caused, and continues to cause, neural tube defects to occur in almost 1,000 pregnancies every year.

Trends in congenital anomalies in Europe from 1980 to 2012.

BACKGROUND: Surveillance of congenital anomalies is important to identify potential teratogens. METHODS: This study analysed the prevalence of 61 congenital anomaly subgroups (excluding chromosomal) in 25 population-based EUROCAT registries (1980-2012). Live births, fetal deaths and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly were analysed with multilevel random-effects Poisson regression models. RESULTS: Seventeen anomaly subgroups had statistically significant trends from 2003-2012; 12 increasing and 5 decreasing. CONCLUSIONS: The annual increasing prevalence of severe congenital heart defects, single ventricle, atrioventricular septal defects and tetralogy of Fallot of 1.4% (95% CI: 0.7% to 2.0%), 4.6% (1.0% to 8.2%), 3.4% (1.3% to 5.5%) and 4.1% (2.4% to 5.7%) respectively may reflect increases in maternal obesity and diabetes (known risk factors). The increased prevalence of cystic adenomatous malformation of the lung [6.5% (3.5% to 9.4%)] and decreased prevalence of limb reduction defects [-2.8% (-4.2% to -1.5%)] are unexplained. For renal dysplasia and maternal infections, increasing trends may be explained by increased screening, and deceases in patent ductus arteriosus at term and increases in craniosynostosis, by improved follow up period after birth and improved diagnosis. For oesophageal atresia, duodenal atresia/stenosis and ano-rectal atresia/stenosis recent changes in prevalence appeared incidental when compared with larger long term fluctuations. For microcephaly and congenital hydronephrosis trends could not be interpreted due to discrepancies in diagnostic criteria. The trends for club foot and syndactyly disappeared once registries with disparate results were excluded. No decrease in neural tube defects was detected, despite efforts at prevention through folic acid supplementation.

Quantifying the health benefits of chronic disease prevention: a fresh approach using cardiovascular disease as an example.

Current methods of determining the proportion of people who benefit from a preventive intervention and the years of life gained can underestimate the former and overestimate the latter. We describe how to overcome these errors, using two examples relating to the prevention of myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke, one using a specified polypill daily from age 50 and another reducing salt intake in the population. Standard life table analysis was used to calculate the person-years of life gained without an MI or stroke, based on estimates of the incidence of these disorders in England and Wales. The proportion of individuals who benefit was taken as everyone who would, without treatment, have an MI or stroke (holistic model), rather than limiting the benefit to the proportion calculated from the relative risk reduction (reductionist model), as is current practice. Under the holistic model, 33% of people who take the polypill from age 50 benefit, gaining, on average, 8 years of life without an MI or stroke (19% and 14 years under the reductionist model). Estimates for reducing salt intake by 6 g/day are 33% and 2.8 years respectively under the holistic model (6% and 16 years under the reductionist model). In the prevention of disorders such as stroke by reducing exposure to causal factors such as blood pressure, the use of a holistic model corrects the underestimation of the proportion of people who benefit and the overestimation of their years of life gained associated with current methods.

Prevention of neural tube defects: a cross-sectional study of the uptake of folic acid supplementation in nearly half a million women.

BACKGROUND: Taking folic acid supplements before pregnancy to reduce the risk of a neural tube defect (NTD) is especially important in countries without universal folic acid fortification. The extent of folic acid supplementation among women who had antenatal screening for Down's syndrome and NTDs at the Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, London between 1999 and 2012 was assessed. METHODS AND FINDINGS: 466,860 women screened provided details on folic acid supplementation. The proportion of women who took folic acid supplements before pregnancy was determined according to year and characteristics of the women. The proportion of women taking folic acid supplements before pregnancy declined from 35% (95% CI 34%-35%) in 1999-2001 to 31% (30%-31%) in 2011-2012. 6% (5%-6%) of women aged under 20 took folic acid supplements before pregnancy compared with 40% of women aged between 35 and 39. Non-Caucasian women were less likely to take folic acid supplements before pregnancy than Caucasian women; Afro-Caribbean 17% (16%-17%), Oriental 25% (24%-25%) and South Asian 20% (20%-21%) compared with 35% (35%-35%) for Caucasian women. 51% (48%-55%) of women who previously had an NTD pregnancy took folic acid supplements before the current pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: The policy of folic acid supplementation is failing and has led to health inequalities. This study demonstrates the need to fortify flour and other cereal grain with folic acid in all countries of the world.