Projecting the Future Pediatric Subspecialty Workforce: Summary and Recommendations.

This article summarizes the findings of a Pediatrics supplement addressing the United States workforce for 15 pediatric subspecialties. It includes results from a microsimulation model projecting supply through 2040; growth is forecasted to be uneven across the subspecialties with worsening geographic maldistribution. Although each subspecialty has unique characteristics, commonalities include (1) the changing demographics and healthcare needs of children, including mental health; (2) poor outcomes for children experiencing adverse social drivers of health, including racism; and (3) dependence on other subspecialties. Common healthcare delivery challenges include (1) physician shortages for some subspecialties; (2) misalignment between locations of training programs and subspecialists and areas of projected child population growth; (3) tension between increasing subsubspecialization to address rare diseases and general subspecialty care; (4) the need to expand clinical reach through collaboration with other physicians and advanced practice providers; (5) the lack of parity between Medicare, which funds much of adult care, and Medicaid, which funds over half of pediatric subspecialty care; and (6) low compensation of pediatric subspecialists compared with adult subspecialists. Overall, subspecialists identified the lack of a central authority to monitor and inform child healthcare provided by pediatric subspecialists as a challenge. Future research on the pediatric subspecialty workforce and the children it serves will be necessary to ensure these children's needs are met. Together, these articles provide overarching and subspecialty-specific recommendations to improve training, recruitment, and retention of a diverse workforce, implement innovative models of care, drive policy changes, and advise future research.

Child Health and the Pediatric Hematology-Oncology Workforce: 2020-2040.

Pediatric hematology-oncology (PHO) is 1 of the oldest recognized pediatric subspecialities. PHO physicians care for infants, children, adolescents, and young adults with all types of cancer and nonmalignant blood conditions, in many cases temporarily assuming the role of a primary care physician because of the complexity and intensity of treatment. However, the number of clinically active PHO subspecialists needed to care for children in the United States remains unknown. Recent papers suggest a potential oversaturation of PHO physicians in some geographic areas. This article is part of a Pediatrics supplement focused on projecting the future supply of the pediatric subspecialty workforce. It draws on information available in the literature, data from the American Board of Pediatrics, and findings from a new microsimulation model estimating the future supply of pediatric subspecialists through 2040. The model predicts a workforce growth in PHO subspecialists of 66% by 2040. Alternative scenarios, including changes in clinical time and fellowship size, resulted in a difference in growth of ±18% from baseline. The model also forecasts significant geographic maldistribution. For example, the current workforce is concentrated in the Northeast Census region and the model predicts the New England Census division will have a 2.9-fold higher clinical workforce equivalent per 100 000 children aged 0 to 18 years than the Mountain Census division by 2040. These findings suggest potential opportunities to improve the PHO subspecialty workforce and the outcomes and experiences of its patient population through educational changes, practice initiatives, policy interventions, and dedicated research.

Child Health Needs and the Pediatric Endocrinology Workforce: 2020-2040.

The pediatric endocrinology (PE) workforce in the United States is struggling to sustain an adequate, let alone optimal, workforce capacity. This article, one of a series of articles in a supplement to Pediatrics, focuses on the pediatric subspecialty workforce and furthers previous evaluations of the US PE workforce to model the current and future clinical PE workforce and its geographic distribution. The article first discusses the children presenting to PE care teams, reviews the current state of the PE subspecialty workforce, and presents projected headcount and clinical workforce equivalents at the national, census region, and census division level on the basis of a subspecialty workforce supply model through 2040. It concludes by discussing the educational and training, clinical practice, policy, and future workforce research implications of the data presented. Data presented in this article are available from the American Board of Pediatrics, the National Resident Matching Program, and the subspecialty workforce supply model. Aging, part-time appointments, and unbalanced geographic distribution of providers diminish the PE workforce capacity. In addition, limited exposure, financial concerns, and lifestyle perceptions may impact trainees. Additional workforce challenges are the subspecialty's increasingly complex cases and breadth of conditions treated, reliance on international medical graduates to fill fellowship slots, and high relative proportion of research careers. The recent limitations on pediatric endocrinologists providing gender-affirming care may also impact the geographic distribution of the subspecialty's workforce. Deliberate actions need to be taken now to continue serving the needs of children.