Performance of risk models to predict mortality risk for patients with heart failure: evaluation in an integrated health system.

BACKGROUND: Referral of patients with heart failure (HF) who are at high mortality risk for specialist evaluation is recommended. Yet, most tools for identifying such patients are difficult to implement in electronic health record (EHR) systems. OBJECTIVE: To assess the performance and ease of implementation of Machine learning Assessment of RisK and EaRly mortality in Heart Failure (MARKER-HF), a machine-learning model that uses structured data that is readily available in the EHR, and compare it with two commonly used risk scores: the Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) and Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic (MAGGIC) Heart Failure Risk Score. DESIGN: Retrospective, cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: Data from 6764 adults with HF were abstracted from EHRs at a large integrated health system from 1/1/10 to 12/31/19. MAIN MEASURES: One-year survival from time of first cardiology or primary care visit was estimated using MARKER-HF, SHFM, and MAGGIC. Discrimination was measured by the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). Calibration was assessed graphically. KEY RESULTS: Compared to MARKER-HF, both SHFM and MAGGIC required a considerably larger amount of data engineering and imputation to generate risk score estimates. MARKER-HF, SHFM, and MAGGIC exhibited similar discriminations with AUCs of 0.70 (0.69-0.73), 0.71 (0.69-0.72), and 0.71 (95% CI 0.70-0.73), respectively. All three scores showed good calibration across the full risk spectrum. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that MARKER-HF, which uses readily available clinical and lab measurements in the EHR and required less imputation and data engineering than SHFM and MAGGIC, is an easier tool to identify high-risk patients in ambulatory clinics who could benefit from referral to a HF specialist.

Comparison of Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter-2 Inhibitor and Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor Agonist Prescribing in Patients With Diabetes Mellitus With and Without Cardiovascular Disease.

Sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP1-RAs) reduce cardiovascular events and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We sought to describe trends in prescribing for SGLT2is and GLP1-RAs in diverse care settings, including (1) the outpatient clinics of a midwestern integrated health system and (2) small- and medium-sized community-based primary care practices and health centers in 3 midwestern states. We included adults with T2DM and ≥1 outpatient clinic visit. The outcomes of interest were annual active prescription rates for SGLT2is and GLP1-RAs (separately). In the integrated health system, 22,672 patients met the case definition of T2DM. From 2013 to 2019, the overall prescription rate for SGLT2is increased from 1% to 15% (absolute difference [AD] 14%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 13% to 15%, p <0.01). The GLP1-RA prescription rate was stable at 10% (AD 0%, 95% CI -1% to 1%, p = 0.9). In community-based primary care practices, 43,340 patients met the case definition of T2DM. From 2013 to 2017, the SGLT2i prescription rate increased from 3% to 7% (AD 4%, 95% CI 3% to 6%, p <0.01), whereas the GLP1-RA prescription rate was stable at 2% to 3% (AD 1%, 95% CI -1 to 1%, p = 0.40). In a fully adjusted regression model, non-Hispanic Black patients had lower odds of SGLT2i or GLP1-RA prescription (odds ratio 0.56, 95% CI 0.34 to 0.89, p = 0.016). In conclusion, the increase in prescription rates was greater for SGLT2is than for GLP1-RAs in patients with T2DM in a large integrated medical center and community primary care practices. Overall, prescription rates for eligible patients were low, and racial disparities were observed.

Effect of Bhramari Pranayama intervention on stress, anxiety, depression and sleep quality among COVID 19 patients in home isolation.

Background: COVID-19 outbreak is considered to be a major public health concern as it has a negative impact on the patient's psychological health. In addition, patients under home isolation might be more panic and in stress. In this study, we examined the effect of Bhramari Pranayama (Bhr.P) intervention on patients' psychological distress during home isolation. Methods: Ninety-two asymptomatic COVID-19 patients were recruited from the host hospital and willing patients who satisfied the inclusion criteria (n = 42) were selected for the study. The patients were given Bhr.P intervention (20 min) through online for 15 days. Participants were assessed with Depression Anxiety and Stress Scale-21 (DASS-21), Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI), and Quality of life (WHOQOL-BREF) at baseline and post-intervention. Results: Bhr.P practice has shown a significant (P < 0.05) reduction in DASS-21 score of depression, anxiety and stress. In addition, the patients stated significant improvement in quality of sleep (PSQI; p < 0.05) and quality of life (WHOQOL-BREF; p < 0.05) after the intervention. Conclusion: Our findings indicate that Bhr.P intervention had a positive impact on psychological health as well as quality of sleep among the COVID-19 patients during home isolation. However, it needs to be confirmed by multi-site randomized controlled trials.Clinical trial registration: CTRI/2021/04/032845.

Augmented Intelligence to Identify Patients With Advanced Heart Failure in an Integrated Health System.

BACKGROUND: Timely referral for specialist evaluation in patients with advanced heart failure (HF) is a Class 1 recommendation. However, the transition from stage C HF to advanced or stage D HF often goes undetected in routine care, resulting in delayed referral and higher mortality rates. OBJECTIVES: The authors sought to develop an augmented intelligence-enabled workflow using machine learning to identify patients with stage D HF and streamline referral. METHODS: We extracted data on HF patients with encounters from January 1, 2007, to November 30, 2020, from a HF registry within a regional, integrated health system. We created an ensemble machine learning model to predict stage C or stage D HF and integrated the results within the electronic health record. RESULTS: In a retrospective data set of 14,846 patients, the model had a good positive predictive value (60%) and low sensitivity (25%) for identifying stage D HF in a 100-person, physician-reviewed, holdout test set. During prospective implementation of the workflow from April 1, 2021, to February 15, 2022, 416 patients were reviewed by a clinical coordinator, with agreement between the model and the coordinator in 50.3% of stage D predictions. Twenty-four patients have been scheduled for evaluation in a HF clinic, 4 patients started an evaluation for advanced therapies, and 1 patient received a left ventricular assist device. CONCLUSIONS: An augmented intelligence-enabled workflow was integrated into clinical operations to identify patients with advanced HF. Endeavors such as this require a multidisciplinary team with experience in design thinking, informatics, quality improvement, operations, and health information technology, as well as dedicated resources to monitor and improve performance over time.

Characterizing Teamwork in Cardiovascular Care Outcomes: A Network Analytics Approach.

BACKGROUND: The nature of teamwork in healthcare is complex and interdisciplinary, and provider collaboration based on shared patient encounters is crucial to its success. Characterizing the intensity of working relationships with risk-adjusted patient outcomes supplies insight into provider interactions in a hospital environment. METHODS AND RESULTS: We extracted 4 years of patient, provider, and activity data for encounters in an inpatient cardiology unit from Northwestern Medicine's Enterprise Data Warehouse. We then created a provider-patient network to identify healthcare providers who jointly participated in patient encounters and calculated satisfaction rates for provider-provider pairs. We demonstrated the application of a novel parameter, the shared positive outcome ratio, a measure that assesses the strength of a patient-sharing relationship between 2 providers based on risk-adjusted encounter outcomes. We compared an observed collaboration network of 334 providers and 3453 relationships to 1000 networks with shared positive outcome ratio scores based on randomized outcomes and found 188 collaborative relationships between pairs of providers that showed significantly higher than expected patient satisfaction ratings. A group of 22 providers performed exceptionally in terms of patient satisfaction. Our results indicate high variability in collaboration scores across the network and highlight our ability to identify relationships with both higher and lower than expected scores across a set of shared patient encounters. CONCLUSIONS: Satisfaction rates seem to vary across different teams of providers. Team collaboration can be quantified using a composite measure of collaboration across provider pairs. Tracking provider pair outcomes over a sufficient set of shared encounters may inform quality improvement strategies such as optimizing team staffing, identifying characteristics and practices of high-performing teams, developing evidence-based team guidelines, and redesigning inpatient care processes.