A temporally and spatially explicit, data-driven estimation of airborne ragweed pollen concentrations across Europe.

Ongoing and future climate change driven expansion of aeroallergen-producing plant species comprise a major human health problem across Europe and elsewhere. There is an urgent need to produce accurate, temporally dynamic maps at the continental level, especially in the context of climate uncertainty. This study aimed to restore missing daily ragweed pollen data sets for Europe, to produce phenological maps of ragweed pollen, resulting in the most complete and detailed high-resolution ragweed pollen concentration maps to date. To achieve this, we have developed two statistical procedures, a Gaussian method (GM) and deep learning (DL) for restoring missing daily ragweed pollen data sets, based on the plant's reproductive and growth (phenological, pollen production and frost-related) characteristics. DL model performances were consistently better for estimating seasonal pollen integrals than those of the GM approach. These are the first published modelled maps using altitude correction and flowering phenology to recover missing pollen information. We created a web page (http://euragweedpollen.gmf.u-szeged.hu/), including daily ragweed pollen concentration data sets of the stations examined and their restored daily data, allowing one to upload newly measured or recovered daily data. Generation of these maps provides a means to track pollen impacts in the context of climatic shifts, identify geographical regions with high pollen exposure, determine areas of future vulnerability, apply spatially-explicit mitigation measures and prioritize management interventions.

Pollen in water of unstable salinity: Evolution and function of dynamic apertures in monocot aquatics.

PREMISE: The sporoderm of seed-plant pollen grains typically has apertures in which the outer sporopollenin-bearing layer is relatively sparse. The apertures allow regulation of the internal volume of the pollen grain during desiccation and rehydration (harmomegathy) and also serve as sites of pollen germination. A small fraction of angiosperms undergo pollination in water or at the water surface, where desiccation is unlikely. Their pollen grains commonly lack apertures, though with some notable exceptions. We tested a hypothesis that in some angiosperm aquatics that inhabit water of unstable salinity, the pollen apertures accommodate osmotic effects that occur during pollination in such conditions. METHODS: Pollen grains of the tepaloid clade of the monocot order Alismatales, which contains ecologically diverse aquatic and marshy plants, were examined using light microscopy and scanning electron microscopy. We used Ruppia as a model to test pollen grain response in water of various salinities. Pollen aperture evolution was also analyzed using molecular tree topologies. RESULTS: Phylogenetic optimizations demonstrated an evolutionary loss and two subsequent regains of the aperturate condition in the tepaloid clade of Alismatales. Both of the taxa that have reverted to aperturate pollen (Ruppia, Ruppiaceae; Althenia, Potamogetonaceae) are adapted to changeable water salinity. Direct experiments with Ruppia showed that the pollen apertures have a role in a harmomegathic response to differences in water salinity. CONCLUSIONS: Our results showed that the inferred regain of pollen apertures represents an adaptation to changeable water salinity. We invoke a loss-and-regain scenario, prompting questions that are testable using developmental genetics and plant physiology.

Near-ground effect of height on pollen exposure.

The effect of height on pollen concentration is not well documented and little is known about the near-ground vertical profile of airborne pollen. This is important as most measuring stations are on roofs, but patient exposure is at ground level. Our study used a big data approach to estimate the near-ground vertical profile of pollen concentrations based on a global study of paired stations located at different heights. We analyzed paired sampling stations located at different heights between 1.5 and 50 m above ground level (AGL). This provided pollen data from 59 Hirst-type volumetric traps from 25 different areas, mainly in Europe, but also covering North America and Australia, resulting in about 2,000,000 daily pollen concentrations analyzed. The daily ratio of the amounts of pollen from different heights per location was used, and the values of the lower station were divided by the higher station. The lower station of paired traps recorded more pollen than the higher trap. However, while the effect of height on pollen concentration was clear, it was also limited (average ratio 1.3, range 0.7-2.2). The standard deviation of the pollen ratio was highly variable when the lower station was located close to the ground level (below 10 m AGL). We show that pollen concentrations measured at >10 m are representative for background near-ground levels.

Temperature-related changes in airborne allergenic pollen abundance and seasonality across the northern hemisphere: a retrospective data analysis.

BACKGROUND: Ongoing climate change might, through rising temperatures, alter allergenic pollen biology across the northern hemisphere. We aimed to analyse trends in pollen seasonality and pollen load and to establish whether there are specific climate-related links to any observed changes. METHODS: For this retrospective data analysis, we did an extensive search for global datasets with 20 years or more of airborne pollen data that consistently recorded pollen season indices (eg, duration and intensity). 17 locations across three continents with long-term (approximately 26 years on average) quantitative records of seasonal concentrations of multiple pollen (aeroallergen) taxa met the selection criteria. These datasets were analysed in the context of recent annual changes in maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) associated with anthropogenic climate change. Seasonal regressions (slopes) of variation in pollen load and pollen season duration over time were compared to Tmax, cumulative degree day Tmax, Tmin, cumulative degree day Tmin, and frost-free days among all 17 locations to ascertain significant correlations. FINDINGS: 12 (71%) of the 17 locations showed significant increases in seasonal cumulative pollen or annual pollen load. Similarly, 11 (65%) of the 17 locations showed a significant increase in pollen season duration over time, increasing, on average, 0·9 days per year. Across the northern hemisphere locations analysed, annual cumulative increases in Tmax over time were significantly associated with percentage increases in seasonal pollen load (r=0·52, p=0·034) as were annual cumulative increases in Tmin (r=0·61, p=0·010). Similar results were observed for pollen season duration, but only for cumulative degree days (higher than the freezing point [0°C or 32°F]) for Tmax (r=0·53, p=0·030) and Tmin (r=0·48, p=0·05). Additionally, temporal increases in frost-free days per year were significantly correlated with increases in both pollen load (r=0·62, p=0·008) and pollen season duration (r=0·68, p=0·003) when averaged for all 17 locations. INTERPRETATION: Our findings reveal that the ongoing increase in temperature extremes (Tmin and Tmax) might already be contributing to extended seasonal duration and increased pollen load for multiple aeroallergenic pollen taxa in diverse locations across the northern hemisphere. This study, done across multiple continents, highlights an important link between ongoing global warming and public health-one that could be exacerbated as temperatures continue to increase. FUNDING: None.

Suggested mechanisms underlying pollen wall development in Ambrosia trifida (Asteraceae: Heliantheae).

By a detailed ontogenetic study of Ambrosia trifida pollen, tracing each stage of development with TEM, we aim to understand the establishment of the pollen wall and to unravel the mechanisms underlying sporoderm development. The main steps of exine ontogeny in Ambrosia trifida, observed in the microspore periplasmic space, are as follows: spherical units, gradually transforming into columns, then to rod-like units; the appearance of the initial reticulate tectum; growth of columellae under the tectum and initial sporopollenin accumulation on them; the appearance of the endexine lamellae, first in fragments, then in long laminae; the cessation of the glycocalyx growth and its detachment from the plasma membrane, resulting in the appearance of gaps; massive accumulation of sporopollenin on the tectum, columellae, and endexine, and the appearance of the foot layer at the young post-tetrad stage, accompanied by establishment of caveae in sites of the former gaps; and final massive sporopollenin accumulation. This sequence of developmental events in all probability corresponds to the sequence of self-assembling micellar mesophases. This gives (together with earlier findings and experimental modeling of exine) strong evidence that the genome and self-assembly share control of exine formation. In this sense, self-assembly itself can be seen as an inherent mechanism of evolution.

A statistical model for predicting the inter-annual variability of birch pollen abundance in Northern and North-Eastern Europe.

The paper suggests a methodology for predicting next-year seasonal pollen index (SPI, a sum of daily-mean pollen concentrations) over large regions and demonstrates its performance for birch in Northern and North-Eastern Europe. A statistical model is constructed using meteorological, geophysical and biological characteristics of the previous year). A cluster analysis of multi-annual data of European Aeroallergen Network (EAN) revealed several large regions in Europe, where the observed SPI exhibits similar patterns of the multi-annual variability. We built the model for the northern cluster of stations, which covers Finland, Sweden, Baltic States, part of Belarus, and, probably, Russia and Norway, where the lack of data did not allow for conclusive analysis. The constructed model was capable of predicting the SPI with correlation coefficient reaching up to 0.9 for some stations, odds ratio is infinitely high for 50% of sites inside the region and the fraction of prediction falling within factor of 2 from observations, stays within 40-70%. In particular, model successfully reproduced both the bi-annual cycle of the SPI and years when this cycle breaks down.