Long-range dependence and extreme values of precipitation, phosphorus load, and Cyanobacteria.

Extreme daily values of precipitation (1939-2021), discharge (1991-2021), phosphorus (P) load (1994-2021), and phycocyanin, a pigment of Cyanobacteria (June 1-September 15 of 2008-2021) are clustered as multi-day events for Lake Mendota, Wisconsin. Long-range dependence, or memory, is the shortest for precipitation and the longest for phycocyanin. Extremes are clustered for all variates and those of P load and phycocyanin are most strongly clustered. Extremes of P load are predictable from extremes of precipitation, and precipitation and P load are correlated with later concentrations of phycocyanin. However, time delays from 1 to 60 d were found between P load extremes and the next extreme phycocyanin event within the same year of observation. Although most of the lake's P enters in extreme events, blooms of Cyanobacteria may be sustained by recycling and food web processes.

Outsized nutrient contributions from small tributaries to a Great Lake.

Excessive nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loading is one of the greatest threats to aquatic ecosystems in the Anthropocene, causing eutrophication of rivers, lakes, and marine coastlines worldwide. For lakes across the United States, eutrophication is driven largely by nonpoint nutrient sources from tributaries that drain surrounding watersheds. Decades of monitoring and regulatory efforts have paid little attention to small tributaries of large water bodies, despite their ubiquity and potential local importance. We used a snapshot of nutrient inputs from nearly all tributaries of Lake Michigan-the world's fifth largest freshwater lake by volume-to determine how land cover and dams alter nutrient inputs across watershed sizes. Loads, concentrations, stoichiometry (N:P), and bioavailability (percentage dissolved inorganic nutrients) varied by orders of magnitude among tributaries, creating a mosaic of coastal nutrient inputs. The 6 largest of 235 tributaries accounted for ∼70% of the daily N and P delivered to Lake Michigan. However, small tributaries exhibited nutrient loads that were high for their size and biased toward dissolved inorganic forms. Higher bioavailability of nutrients from small watersheds suggests greater potential to fuel algal blooms in coastal areas, especially given the likelihood that their plumes become trapped and then overlap in the nearshore zone. Our findings reveal an underappreciated role that small streams may play in driving coastal eutrophication in large water bodies. Although they represent only a modest proportion of lake-wide loads, expanding nutrient management efforts to address smaller watersheds could reduce the ecological impacts of nutrient loading on valuable nearshore ecosystems.

Unexpected stasis in a changing world: Lake nutrient and chlorophyll trends since 1990.

The United States (U.S.) has faced major environmental changes in recent decades, including agricultural intensification and urban expansion, as well as changes in atmospheric deposition and climate-all of which may influence eutrophication of freshwaters. However, it is unclear whether or how water quality in lakes across diverse ecological settings has responded to environmental change. We quantified water quality trends in 2913 lakes using nutrient and chlorophyll (Chl) observations from the Lake Multi-Scaled Geospatial and Temporal Database of the Northeast U.S. (LAGOS-NE), a collection of preexisting lake data mostly from state agencies. LAGOS-NE was used to quantify whether lake water quality has changed from 1990 to 2013, and whether lake-specific or regional geophysical factors were related to the observed changes. We modeled change through time using hierarchical linear models for total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), stoichiometry (TN:TP), and Chl. Both the slopes (percent change per year) and intercepts (value in 1990) were allowed to vary by lake and region. Across all lakes, TN declined at a rate of 1.1% year-1 , while TP, TN:TP, and Chl did not change. A minority (7%-16%) of individual lakes had changing nutrients, stoichiometry, or Chl. Of those lakes that changed, we found differences in the geospatial variables that were most related to the observed change in the response variables. For example, TN and TN:TP trends were related to region-level drivers associated with atmospheric deposition of N; TP trends were related to both lake and region-level drivers associated with climate and land use; and Chl trends were found in regions with high air temperature at the beginning of the study period. We conclude that despite large environmental change and management efforts over recent decades, water quality of lakes in the Midwest and Northeast U.S. has not overwhelmingly degraded or improved.

Lake nutrient stoichiometry is less predictable than nutrient concentrations at regional and sub-continental scales.

Production in many ecosystems is co-limited by multiple elements. While a known suite of drivers associated with nutrient sources, nutrient transport, and internal processing controls concentrations of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) in lakes, much less is known about whether the drivers of single nutrient concentrations can also explain spatial or temporal variation in lake N:P stoichiometry. Predicting stoichiometry might be more complex than predicting concentrations of individual elements because some drivers have similar relationships with N and P, leading to a weak relationship with their ratio. Further, the dominant controls on elemental concentrations likely vary across regions, resulting in context dependent relationships between drivers, lake nutrients and their ratios. Here, we examine whether known drivers of N and P concentrations can explain variation in N:P stoichiometry, and whether explaining variation in stoichiometry differs across regions. We examined drivers of N:P in ~2,700 lakes at a sub-continental scale and two large regions nested within the sub-continental study area that have contrasting ecological context, including differences in the dominant type of land cover (agriculture vs. forest). At the sub-continental scale, lake nutrient concentrations were correlated with nutrient loading and lake internal processing, but stoichiometry was only weakly correlated to drivers of lake nutrients. At the regional scale, drivers that explained variation in nutrients and stoichiometry differed between regions. In the Midwestern U.S. region, dominated by agricultural land use, lake depth and the percentage of row crop agriculture were strong predictors of stoichiometry because only phosphorus was related to lake depth and only nitrogen was related to the percentage of row crop agriculture. In contrast, all drivers were related to N and P in similar ways in the Northeastern U.S. region, leading to weak relationships between drivers and stoichiometry. Our results suggest ecological context mediates controls on lake nutrients and stoichiometry. Predicting stoichiometry was generally more difficult than predicting nutrient concentrations, but human activity may decouple N and P, leading to better prediction of N:P stoichiometry in regions with high anthropogenic activity.