Monitoring indirect impact of COVID-19 pandemic on services for cardiovascular diseases in the UK.

OBJECTIVE: To monitor hospital activity for presentation, diagnosis and treatment of cardiovascular diseases during the COVID-19) pandemic to inform on indirect effects. METHODS: Retrospective serial cross-sectional study in nine UK hospitals using hospital activity data from 28 October 2019 (pre-COVID-19) to 10 May 2020 (pre-easing of lockdown) and for the same weeks during 2018-2019. We analysed aggregate data for selected cardiovascular diseases before and during the epidemic. We produced an online visualisation tool to enable near real-time monitoring of trends. RESULTS: Across nine hospitals, total admissions and emergency department (ED) attendances decreased after lockdown (23 March 2020) by 57.9% (57.1%-58.6%) and 52.9% (52.2%-53.5%), respectively, compared with the previous year. Activity for cardiac, cerebrovascular and other vascular conditions started to decline 1-2 weeks before lockdown and fell by 31%-88% after lockdown, with the greatest reductions observed for coronary artery bypass grafts, carotid endarterectomy, aortic aneurysm repair and peripheral arterial disease procedures. Compared with before the first UK COVID-19 (31 January 2020), activity declined across diseases and specialties between the first case and lockdown (total ED attendances relative reduction (RR) 0.94, 0.93-0.95; total hospital admissions RR 0.96, 0.95-0.97) and after lockdown (attendances RR 0.63, 0.62-0.64; admissions RR 0.59, 0.57-0.60). There was limited recovery towards usual levels of some activities from mid-April 2020. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial reductions in total and cardiovascular activities are likely to contribute to a major burden of indirect effects of the pandemic, suggesting they should be monitored and mitigated urgently.

Health System-Based Unhealthy Alcohol Use Screening and Treatment Comparing Demographically Matched Participants With and Without HIV.

BACKGROUND: Unhealthy alcohol use among persons living with HIV (PLWH) is linked to significant morbidity, and use of alcohol services may differ by HIV status. Our objective was to compare unhealthy alcohol use screening and treatment by HIV status in primary care. METHODS: Cohort study of adult (≥18 years) PLWH and HIV-uninfected participants frequency matched 20:1 to PLWH by age, sex, and race/ethnicity who were enrolled in a large integrated healthcare system in the United States, with information ascertained from an electronic health record. Outcomes included unhealthy alcohol screening, prevalence, provider-delivered brief interventions, and addiction specialty care visits. Other predictors included age, sex, race/ethnicity, neighborhood deprivation index, depression, smoking, substance use disorders, Charlson comorbidity index, prior outpatient visits, insurance type, and medical facility. Cox proportional hazards models were used to compute hazard ratios (HR) for the outcomes of time to unhealthy alcohol use screening and time to first addiction specialty visit. Poisson regression with robust standard errors was used to compute prevalence ratios (PR) for other outcomes. RESULTS: 11,235 PLWH and 227,320 HIV-uninfected participants were included. By 4.5 years after baseline, most participants were screened for unhealthy alcohol use (85% of PLWH and 93% of HIV-uninfected), but with a lower rate among PLWH (adjusted HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.82 to 0.85). PLWH were less likely, compared with HIV-uninfected participants, to report unhealthy drinking among those screened (adjusted PR 0.74, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.79), and among those who screened positive, less likely to receive brief interventions (adjusted PR 0.82, 95% CI 0.75 to 0.90), but more likely (adjusted HR 1.7, 95% CI 1.2 to 2.4) to have an addiction specialty visit within 1 year. CONCLUSIONS: Unhealthy alcohol use was lower in PLWH, but the treatment approach by HIV status differed. PLWH reporting unhealthy alcohol use received less brief interventions and more addiction specialty care than HIV-uninfected participants.

Erythropoiesis-stimulating agent dosing, haemoglobin and ferritin levels in UK haemodialysis patients 2005-13.

Background: Erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) with intravenous iron supplementation are the main treatment for anaemia in patients with chronic kidney disease. Although observational studies suggest better outcomes for patients who achieve higher haemoglobin (Hb) levels, randomized controlled trials comparing higher and lower Hb targets have led to safety concerns over higher targets and to changes in treatment guidelines. Methods: Quarterly data from 2005 to 2013 were obtained on 28 936 haemodialysis patients from the UK Renal Registry. We examined trends in ESA use and average dose, Hb and ferritin values over time and Hb according to the UK Renal Association guideline range. Results: The average ESA dose declined over time, with sharper decreases of epoetin seen towards the end of 2006 and from 2009. Average Hb for patients on ESAs was 114.1 g/L [95% confidence interval (CI) 113.7, 114.6] in the first quarter of 2005, which decreased to 109.6 g/L (95% CI 109.3, 109.9) by the end of 2013. Average serum ferritin was 353 µg/L (95% CI 345, 360) at the start of 2005, increasing to 386 µg/L (95% CI 380, 392) in the final quarter of 2013. The percentage of patients with Hb in the range of 100-120 g/L increased from 46.1 at the start of 2005 to 57.6 at the end of 2013. Conclusions: Anaemia management patterns for haemodialysis patients changed in the UK between 2005 and 2013. These patterns most likely reflect clinician response to emerging trial evidence and practice guidelines. Registries play an important role in continued observation of anaemia management and will monitor further changes as new evidence on optimal care emerges.

Association of BCG, DTP, and measles containing vaccines with childhood mortality: systematic review.

OBJECTIVES:  To evaluate the effects on non-specific and all cause mortality, in children under 5, of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG), diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP), and standard titre measles containing vaccines (MCV); to examine internal validity of the studies; and to examine any modifying effects of sex, age, vaccine sequence, and co-administration of vitamin A. DESIGN:  Systematic review, including assessment of risk of bias, and meta-analyses of similar studies. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA:  Clinical trials, cohort studies, and case-control studies of the effects on mortality of BCG, whole cell DTP, and standard titre MCV in children under 5. DATA SOURCES:  Searches of Medline, Embase, Global Index Medicus, and the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, supplemented by contact with experts in the field. To avoid overlap in children studied across the included articles, findings from non-overlapping birth cohorts were identified. RESULTS:  Results from 34 birth cohorts were identified. Most evidence was from observational studies, with some from short term clinical trials. Most studies reported on all cause (rather than non-specific) mortality. Receipt of BCG vaccine was associated with a reduction in all cause mortality: the average relative risks were 0.70 (95% confidence interval 0.49 to 1.01) from five clinical trials and 0.47 (0.32 to 0.69) from nine observational studies at high risk of bias. Receipt of DTP (almost always with oral polio vaccine) was associated with a possible increase in all cause mortality on average (relative risk 1.38, 0.92 to 2.08) from 10 studies at high risk of bias; this effect seemed stronger in girls than in boys. Receipt of standard titre MCV was associated with a reduction in all cause mortality (relative risks 0.74 (0.51 to 1.07) from four clinical trials and 0.51 (0.42 to 0.63) from 18 observational studies at high risk of bias); this effect seemed stronger in girls than in boys. Seven observational studies, assessed as being at high risk of bias, have compared sequences of vaccines; results of a subset of these suggest that administering DTP with or after MCV may be associated with higher mortality than administering it before MCV. CONCLUSIONS:  Evidence suggests that receipt of BCG and MCV reduce overall mortality by more than would be expected through their effects on the diseases they prevent, and receipt of DTP may be associated with an increase in all cause mortality. Although efforts should be made to ensure that all children are immunised on schedule with BCG, DTP, and MCV, randomised trials are needed to compare the effects of different sequences.

Indications for red blood cell transfusion in cardiac surgery: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Good blood management is an important determinant of outcome in cardiac surgery. Guidelines recommend restrictive red blood cell transfusion. Our objective was to systematically review the evidence from randomised controlled trials and observational studies that are used to inform transfusion decisions in adult cardiac surgery. METHODS: We did a systematic review by searching PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and DARE, from inception to May 1, 2015, databases from specialist societies, and bibliographies of included studies and recent relevant review articles. We included randomised controlled trials that assessed the effect of liberal versus restrictive red blood cell transfusion in patients undergoing cardiac and non-cardiac surgery, and observational studies that assessed the effect of red blood cell transfusion compared with no transfusion on outcomes in adult cardiac patients after surgery. We pooled adjusted odds ratios using fixed-effects and random-effects meta-analyses. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. FINDINGS: We included data from six cardiac surgical randomised controlled trials (3352 patients), 19 non-cardiac surgical trials (8361 patients), and 39 observational studies (232,806 patients). The pooled fixed effects mortality odds ratios comparing liberal versus restrictive transfusion thresholds was 0.70 (95% CI 0.49-1.02; p=0.060) for cardiac surgical trials and 1.10 (95% CI 0.96-1.27; p=0.16) for trials in settings other than cardiac surgery. By contrast, observational cohort studies in cardiac surgery showed that red blood cell transfusion compared with no transfusion was associated with substantially higher mortality (random effects odds ratio 2.72, 95% CI 2.11-3.49; p<0.0001) and other morbidity, although with substantial heterogeneity and small study effects. INTERPRETATION: Evidence from randomised controlled trials in cardiac surgery refutes findings from observational studies that liberal thresholds for red blood cell transfusion are associated with a substantially increased risk of mortality and morbidity. Observational studies and trials in non-cardiac surgery should not be used to inform treatment decisions or guidelines for patients having cardiac surgery. FUNDING: None.

Selenium and prostate cancer: systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer is a growing public health problem. Several human studies have shown a potentially protective effect of selenium, but the conclusions from published reports are inconsistent. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to examine the evidence for relations between selenium intake, selenium status, and prostate cancer risk. DESIGN: This was a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials, case-control studies, and prospective cohort studies. The World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research Continuous Update Project database was searched up to September 2010. The studies included reported measurements of selenium intake or status (plasma, serum, or toenail selenium), assessments of prostate cancer cases (number of events), and the RR in the adult population. Meta-analyses were performed, and study quality, heterogeneity, and small study effects were assessed. Dose-response meta-analyses were used, with restricted cubic splines and fractional polynomials for nonlinear trends, to investigate the association between selenium status and prostate cancer risk. RESULTS: Twelve studies with a total of 13,254 participants and 5007 cases of prostate cancer were included. The relation between plasma/serum selenium and prostate cancer in a nonlinear dose-response meta-analysis showed that the risk decreased with increasing plasma/serum selenium up to 170 ng/mL. Three high-quality studies included in the meta-analysis of toenail selenium and cancer risk indicated a reduction in prostate cancer risk (estimated RR: 0.29; 95% CI: 0.14, 0.61) with a toenail selenium concentration between 0.85 and 0.94 µg/g. CONCLUSION: The relation between selenium status and decreased prostate cancer risk was examined over a relatively narrow range of selenium status; further studies in low-selenium populations are required.

Effect modification by population dietary folate on the association between MTHFR genotype, homocysteine, and stroke risk: a meta-analysis of genetic studies and randomised trials.

BACKGROUND: The MTHFR 677C→T polymorphism has been associated with raised homocysteine concentration and increased risk of stroke. A previous overview showed that the effects were greatest in regions with low dietary folate consumption, but differentiation between the effect of folate and small-study bias was difficult. A meta-analysis of randomised trials of homocysteine-lowering interventions showed no reduction in coronary heart disease events or stroke, but the trials were generally set in populations with high folate consumption. We aimed to reduce the effect of small-study bias and investigate whether folate status modifies the association between MTHFR 677C→T and stroke in a genetic analysis and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. METHODS: We established a collaboration of genetic studies consisting of 237 datasets including 59,995 individuals with data for homocysteine and 20,885 stroke events. We compared the genetic findings with a meta-analysis of 13 randomised trials of homocysteine-lowering treatments and stroke risk (45,549 individuals, 2314 stroke events, 269 transient ischaemic attacks). FINDINGS: The effect of the MTHFR 677C→T variant on homocysteine concentration was larger in low folate regions (Asia; difference between individuals with TT versus CC genotype, 3·12 µmol/L, 95% CI 2·23 to 4·01) than in areas with folate fortification (America, Australia, and New Zealand, high; 0·13 µmol/L, -0·85 to 1·11). The odds ratio (OR) for stroke was also higher in Asia (1·68, 95% CI 1·44 to 1·97) than in America, Australia, and New Zealand, high (1·03, 0·84 to 1·25). Most randomised trials took place in regions with high or increasing population folate concentrations. The summary relative risk (RR) of stroke in trials of homocysteine-lowering interventions (0·94, 95% CI 0·85 to 1·04) was similar to that predicted for the same extent of homocysteine reduction in large genetic studies in populations with similar folate status (predicted RR 1·00, 95% CI 0·90 to 1·11). Although the predicted effect of homocysteine reduction from large genetic studies in low folate regions (Asia) was larger (RR 0·78, 95% CI 0·68 to 0·90), no trial has evaluated the effect of lowering of homocysteine on stroke risk exclusively in a low folate region. INTERPRETATION: In regions with increasing levels or established policies of population folate supplementation, evidence from genetic studies and randomised trials is concordant in suggesting an absence of benefit from lowering of homocysteine for prevention of stroke. Further large-scale genetic studies of the association between MTHFR 677C→T and stroke in low folate settings are needed to distinguish effect modification by folate from small-study bias. If future randomised trials of homocysteine-lowering interventions for stroke prevention are undertaken, they should take place in regions with low folate consumption. FUNDING: Full funding sources listed at end of paper (see Acknowledgments).

Nutritional interventions and outcome in patients with cancer or preinvasive lesions: systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Dietary modifications and supplements are used widely by patients with cancer and preinvasive lesions as an adjunct to standard treatment. Given the widespread use of nutritional modifications and supplements by such patients and concerns about the lack of benefit and possible harm, we conducted a systematic review of randomized controlled trials to examine the effect of nutritional interventions on patients with cancer or preinvasive lesions. METHODS: We searched electronic databases and reference lists to locate all eligible trials and analyzed trial quality. Outcome measures were all-cause and cancer mortality, disease-free survival, cancer recurrence, second primary cancer, recurrence of a preinvasive lesion, or progression to cancer. Results of individual trials were combined by use of random-effects meta-analyses. RESULTS: We identified 59 eligible trials, 25 in patients with cancer and 34 in patients with preinvasive lesions, respectively. Trial quality was generally low; only three trials (two of cancer and one of preinvasive lesions) had adequate methods for generating the allocation sequence, allocation concealment, and masking both outcome assessors and participants. The combined odds ratio (OR) for the effect of a healthy diet-given alone or with dietary supplements, weight loss, or exercise-on all-cause mortality was 0.90 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.46 to 1.77). There was no evidence of an association between the use of antioxidant (OR = 1.01, 95% CI = 0.88 to 1.15) or retinol (OR = 0.97, 95% CI = 0.83 to 1.13) supplements and all-cause mortality. Meta-analyses of all other outcomes did not show clear evidence of benefit or harm. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of most nutritional interventions cannot be reliably estimated because of the limited number of trials, many of which were of low quality. There is no evidence that dietary modification by cancer patients improves survival and benefits disease prognosis.

Are the clinical effects of homoeopathy placebo effects? Comparative study of placebo-controlled trials of homoeopathy and allopathy.

BACKGROUND: Homoeopathy is widely used, but specific effects of homoeopathic remedies seem implausible. Bias in the conduct and reporting of trials is a possible explanation for positive findings of trials of both homoeopathy and conventional medicine. We analysed trials of homoeopathy and conventional medicine and estimated treatment effects in trials least likely to be affected by bias. METHODS: Placebo-controlled trials of homoeopathy were identified by a comprehensive literature search, which covered 19 electronic databases, reference lists of relevant papers, and contacts with experts. Trials in conventional medicine matched to homoeopathy trials for disorder and type of outcome were randomly selected from the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (issue 1, 2003). Data were extracted in duplicate and outcomes coded so that odds ratios below 1 indicated benefit. Trials described as double-blind, with adequate randomisation, were assumed to be of higher methodological quality. Bias effects were examined in funnel plots and meta-regression models. FINDINGS: 110 homoeopathy trials and 110 matched conventional-medicine trials were analysed. The median study size was 65 participants (range ten to 1573). 21 homoeopathy trials (19%) and nine (8%) conventional-medicine trials were of higher quality. In both groups, smaller trials and those of lower quality showed more beneficial treatment effects than larger and higher-quality trials. When the analysis was restricted to large trials of higher quality, the odds ratio was 0.88 (95% CI 0.65-1.19) for homoeopathy (eight trials) and 0.58 (0.39-0.85) for conventional medicine (six trials). INTERPRETATION: Biases are present in placebo-controlled trials of both homoeopathy and conventional medicine. When account was taken for these biases in the analysis, there was weak evidence for a specific effect of homoeopathic remedies, but strong evidence for specific effects of conventional interventions. This finding is compatible with the notion that the clinical effects of homoeopathy are placebo effects.