Correcting for exposure measurement error in a reanalysis of lung cancer mortality for the Colorado Plateau Uranium Miners cohort.

The exposure estimates used to date for the analysis of lung cancer mortality in the Colorado Plateau Uranium Miners cohort were developed from radon progeny measurements taken in mines beginning in 1951. Since uranium miners were often exposed over long periods of time and since mines were not continuously monitored, much extrapolation and/or interpolation of measured dose-rates was needed in order to develop estimates of exposure for each of the miners in the cohort. We have recently re-examined the interpolation scheme used to create the histories in the light of the fit of a statistical model for the radon progeny measurements taken in mines within the Plateau, and we have computed revised exposure estimates for the large majority of miners in the cohort. This report describes the use of these new model-based revised exposure estimates in the analysis of lung cancer mortality, using follow-up data current through 1990. Specific issues addressed here are (1) the strength of the association between exposure and risk of lung cancer mortality; (2) effects of attained age and time since exposure upon risk of lung cancer mortality; and (3) exposure-rate effects upon risk. Results using the revised exposure estimates are compared to those obtained fitting the same models using the original Public Health Service (PHS) exposure estimates. We found evidence that the new exposure histories provide a better fit to the lung cancer mortality data than do the histories based upon the original PHS dose-rate estimates. In general, the new results show a stronger overall relationship (larger slope estimate) between lung cancer mortality and exposure per unit exposure compared to those obtained with the original estimates, while displaying similar age at exposure and time since exposure effects. In the reanalysis the impact of low dose-rate exposure is found to be relatively unchanged before and after exposure error correction, while the estimate of the effect of high dose-rate exposure is considerably increased. Even after applying our measurement error corrections, evidence of inverse dose-rate effects is found, since the estimate of the impact of high dose-rate exposure is still below that of the low dose-rates. The magnitude and statistical significance, however, of the dose-rate effect estimates are diminished when fit using the revised exposure estimates.

Latency analysis in epidemiologic studies of occupational exposures: application to the Colorado Plateau uranium miners cohort.

BACKGROUND: Latency effects are an important factor in assessing the public health implications of an occupational or environmental exposure. Usually, however, latency results as described in the literature are insufficient to answer public health related questions. Alternative approaches to the analysis of latency effects are warranted. METHODS: A general statistical framework for modeling latency effects is described. We then propose bilinear and exponential decay latency models for analyzing latency effects as they have parameters that address questions of public health interest. Methods are described for fitting these models to cohort or case-control data; statistical inference is based on standard likelihood methods. APPLICATION: A latency analysis of radon exposure and lung cancer in the Colorado Plateau uranium miners cohort was performed. We first analyzed the entire cohort and found that the relative risk associated with exposure increases for about 8.5 years and thereafter decreases until it reaches background levels after about 34 years. The hypothesis that the relative risk remains at its peak level is strongly rejected (P < 0.001). Next, we investigated the variation in the latency effects over subsets of the cohort based on attained age, level and rate of exposure, and smoking. Age was the only factor for which effect modification was demonstrated (P = 0.014). We found that the decline in effect is much steeper at older ages (60+ years) than younger. CONCLUSION: The proposed methods can provide much more information about the exposure-disease latency effects than those generally used.

Use of selenium concentration in whole blood, serum, toenails, or urine as a surrogate measure of selenium intake.

We examined the validity of using the selenium level in a single biological specimen as a surrogate measure of usual intake. We used data from 77 free-living adults from South Dakota and Wyoming. Subjects provided multiple 1-day duplicate-plate food composites, repeated specimens of blood and toenails, and 24-hour urine collections. We developed a statistical calibration method that incorporated measurement error correction to analyze the data. The Pearson correlation coefficients between selenium intake and a single selenium status measure, after deattenuation to adjust for the effect of within-person variation in intake, were: 0.78 for whole blood, 0.74 for serum, 0.67 for toenails, and 0.86 for urine. We present formulas to estimate the intake of individuals, based on selenium levels in a single specimen of blood, toenails, or urine. In these data, the concentration of selenium in a single specimen of whole blood, serum, or toenails served reasonably well as a measure for ranking subjects according to long-term selenium intake but provided only a rough estimate of intake for each subject.