The Melbourne epidemic thunderstorm asthma event 2016: an investigation of environmental triggers, effect on health services, and patient risk factors.

BACKGROUND: A multidisciplinary collaboration investigated the world's largest, most catastrophic epidemic thunderstorm asthma event that took place in Melbourne, Australia, on Nov 21, 2016, to inform mechanisms and preventive strategies. METHODS: Meteorological and airborne pollen data, satellite-derived vegetation index, ambulance callouts, emergency department presentations, and data on hospital admissions for Nov 21, 2016, as well as leading up to and following the event were collected between Nov 21, 2016, and March 31, 2017, and analysed. We contacted patients who presented during the epidemic thunderstorm asthma event at eight metropolitan health services (each including up to three hospitals) via telephone questionnaire to determine patient characteristics, and investigated outcomes of intensive care unit (ICU) admissions. FINDINGS: Grass pollen concentrations on Nov 21, 2016, were extremely high (>100 grains/m3). At 1800 AEDT, a gust front crossed Melbourne, plunging temperatures 10°C, raising humidity above 70%, and concentrating particulate matter. Within 30 h, there were 3365 (672%) excess respiratory-related presentations to emergency departments, and 476 (992%) excess asthma-related admissions to hospital, especially individuals of Indian or Sri Lankan birth (10% vs 1%, p<0·0001) and south-east Asian birth (8% vs 1%, p<0·0001) compared with previous 3 years. Questionnaire data from 1435 (64%) of 2248 emergency department presentations showed a mean age of 32·0 years (SD 18·6), 56% of whom were male. Only 28% had current doctor-diagnosed asthma. 39% of the presentations were of Asian or Indian ethnicity (25% of the Melbourne population were of this ethnicity according to the 2016 census, relative risk [RR] 1·93, 95% CI 1·74-2·15, p <0·0001). Of ten individuals who died, six were Asian or Indian (RR 4·54, 95% CI 1·28-16·09; p=0·01). 35 individuals were admitted to an intensive care unit, all had asthma, 12 took inhaled preventers, and five died. INTERPRETATION: Convergent environmental factors triggered a thunderstorm asthma epidemic of unprecedented magnitude, tempo, and geographical range and severity on Nov 21, 2016, creating a new benchmark for emergency and health service escalation. Asian or Indian ethnicity and current doctor-diagnosed asthma portended life-threatening exacerbations such as those requiring admission to an ICU. Overall, the findings provide important public health lessons applicable to future event forecasting, health care response coordination, protection of at-risk populations, and medical management of epidemic thunderstorm asthma. FUNDING: None.

Seasonal asthma in Melbourne, Australia, and some observations on the occurrence of thunderstorm asthma and its predictability.

We examine the seasonality of asthma-related hospital admissions in Melbourne, Australia, in particular the contribution and predictability of episodic thunderstorm asthma. Using a time-series ecological approach based on asthma admissions to Melbourne metropolitan hospitals, we identified seasonal peaks in asthma admissions that were centred in late February, June and mid-November. These peaks were most likely due to the return to school, winter viral infections and seasonal allergies, respectively. We performed non-linear statistical regression to predict daily admission rates as functions of the seasonal cycle, weather conditions, reported thunderstorms, pollen counts and air quality. Important predictor variables were the seasonal cycle and mean relative humidity in the preceding two weeks, with higher humidity associated with higher asthma admissions. Although various attempts were made to model asthma admissions, none of the models explained substantially more variation above that associated with the annual cycle. We also identified a list of high asthma admissions days (HAADs). Most HAADs fell in the late-February return-to-school peak and the November allergy peak, with the latter containing the greatest number of daily admissions. Many HAADs in the spring allergy peak may represent episodes of thunderstorm asthma, as they were associated with rainfall, thunderstorms, high ambient grass pollen levels and high humidity, a finding that suggests thunderstorm asthma is a recurrent phenomenon in Melbourne that occurs roughly once per five years. The rarity of thunderstorm asthma events makes prediction challenging, underscoring the importance of maintaining high standards of asthma management, both for patients and health professionals, especially during late spring and early summer.