Using the Doughnut Economics framework to structure whole-system thinking in socioecological wellbeing with multidisciplinary stakeholders: an applied case study in Glasgow, Scotland.

BACKGROUND: Human and environmental health are inseparable and interdependent. Doughnut Economics is a conceptual framework combining the Sustainable Development Goals with Planetary Boundaries, thereby simultaneously considering human and planetary wellbeing. The vision is to "meet the needs of all people within the means of the living planet, for the benefit of both current and future generations". Glasgow City Council has committed to becoming a Green Wellbeing Economy, with a socially just transition to Net Zero by 2030. Through our City-University partnership, we are exploring whether Doughnut Economics can drive transformative action towards a sustainable, healthy, and equitable future. METHODS: Glasgow is a pilot site for the C40 Cities' Thriving City Portrait methodology that downscales Doughnut Economics to cities. The Portrait process combined desk-based research and policy review (from January to April, 2022) with participatory workshops to enrich initial findings. The five participatory workshops took place between April, 2022, and February, 2023, and involved about 130 stakeholders. Participants included civil servants, politicians, scientists, community representatives, employees and representatives of private and third-sector organisations, and social enterprises, identified through an iterative stakeholder mapping process with City Council partners. Workshop aims were to create pluralistic definitions of what thriving means for each of the Doughnut's social and ecological dimensions. Ethics approval for the study was granted by The University of Glasgow, College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences. FINDINGS: The workshops produced a shared, holistic vision for Glasgow's future as a thriving city. The Doughnut demonstrated potential as a tool for both understanding the city's socioecological impacts, and as a compass by which the city might set its policy agenda. It allows the multiple goals and priorities of a city system to congregate around a cohesive goal. The Portrait process led to a widening of stakeholders' perspectives, applying systems thinking to policy priorities, cross-sector discussion and collaboration, and significant buy-in from a diverse range of changemakers. INTERPRETATION: The Doughnut framework offered a starting point for Public and Planetary Health researchers to understand connections, co-benefits and trade-offs across different parts of the policy and intervention system. Applying this framework in cities could generate support for whole-system interventions and sustainable solutions to the complex and interconnected climate and social challenges we face. One of the limitations is that we do not yet know whether stakeholders can translate support for this co-created framework into tangible whole-systems action. FUNDING: UKRI Natural Environment Research Council and University of Glasgow.

Extended megadroughts in the southwestern United States during Pleistocene interglacials.

The potential for increased drought frequency and severity linked to anthropogenic climate change in the semi-arid regions of the southwestern United States (US) is a serious concern. Multi-year droughts during the instrumental period and decadal-length droughts of the past two millennia were shorter and climatically different from the future permanent, 'dust-bowl-like' megadrought conditions, lasting decades to a century, that are predicted as a consequence of warming. So far, it has been unclear whether or not such megadroughts occurred in the southwestern US, and, if so, with what regularity and intensity. Here we show that periods of aridity lasting centuries to millennia occurred in the southwestern US during mid-Pleistocene interglacials. Using molecular palaeotemperature proxies to reconstruct the mean annual temperature (MAT) in mid-Pleistocene lacustrine sediment from the Valles Caldera, New Mexico, we found that the driest conditions occurred during the warmest phases of interglacials, when the MAT was comparable to or higher than the modern MAT. A collapse of drought-tolerant C(4) plant communities during these warm, dry intervals indicates a significant reduction in summer precipitation, possibly in response to a poleward migration of the subtropical dry zone. Three MAT cycles ∼2 °C in amplitude occurred within Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 and seem to correspond to the muted precessional cycles within this interglacial. In comparison with MIS 11, MIS 13 experienced higher precessional-cycle amplitudes, larger variations in MAT (4-6 °C) and a longer period of extended warmth, suggesting that local insolation variations were important to interglacial climatic variability in the southwestern US. Comparison of the early MIS 11 climate record with the Holocene record shows many similarities and implies that, in the absence of anthropogenic forcing, the region should be entering a cooler and wetter phase.