Modeling longitudinal oral health status and pneumonia risk: secondary data analyses of an integrated dental-medical cohort.

BACKGROUND: Mounting evidence indicates potential associations between poor oral health status (OHS) and increased pneumonia risk. Relative pneumonia risk was assessed in the context of longitudinally documented OHS. METHODS: Electronic medical/dental patient data captured from 2007 through 2019 were retrieved from the integrated health records of Marshfield Clinic Health Systems. Participant eligibility initiated with an assessment of OHS, stratified into the best, moderate, or worst OHS groups, with the additional criterion of 'no pneumonia diagnosis in the past 90 days'. Pneumonia incidence was longitudinally monitored for up to 1 year from each qualifying dental visit. Models were assessed, with and without adjustment for prior pneumonia incidence, adjusted for smoking and subjected to confounding mitigation attributable to known pneumonia risk factors by applying propensity score analysis. Time-to-event analysis and proportional hazard modeling were applied to investigate relative pneumonia risk over time among the OHS groups. RESULTS: Modeling identified associations between any incident pneumonia subtype and 'number of missing teeth' (p < 0.001) and 'clinically assessed periodontal status' (p < 0.01), which remained significant following adjustment for prior pneumonia incidence and smoking. The hazard ratio (HR) for 'any incident pneumonia' in the best OHS group for 'number of missing teeth' was 0.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) [0.54 - 0.79] (unadjusted) and 0.744, 95% CI [0.61 - 0.91] (adjusted). The HR for 'any incident pneumonia' in the best 'clinically assessed periodontal status' group was 0.72, 95% CI [0.58 - 0.90] (unadjusted) and 0.78, 95% CI [0.62 - 0.97] (adjusted). CONCLUSION/CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Poor OHS increased pneumonia risk. Proactive attention of medical providers to patient OHS and health literacy surrounding oral-systemic disease association is vital, especially in high-risk populations.

Dynamic Risk Prediction of Response to Ursodeoxycholic Acid Among Patients with Primary Biliary Cholangitis in the USA.

BACKGROUND: Ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) remains the first-line therapy for primary biliary cholangitis (PBC); however, inadequate treatment response (ITR) is common. The UK-PBC Consortium developed the modified UDCA Response Score (m-URS) to predict ITR (using alkaline phosphatase [ALP] > 1.67 times the upper limit of normal [*ULN]) at 12 months post-UDCA initiation). Using data from the US-based Fibrotic Liver Disease Consortium, we assessed the m-URS in our multi-racial cohort. We then used a dynamic modeling approach to improve prediction accuracy. METHODS: Using data collected at the time of UDCA initiation, we assessed the m-URS using the original formula; then, by calibrating coefficients to our data, we also assessed whether it remained accurate when using Paris II criteria for ITR. Next, we developed and validated a dynamic risk prediction model that included post-UDCA initiation laboratory data. RESULTS: Among 1578 patients (13% men; 8% African American, 9% Asian American/American Indian/Pacific Islander; 25% Hispanic), the rate of ITR was 27% using ALP > 1.67*ULN and 45% using Paris II criteria. M-URS accuracy was "very good" (AUROC = 0.87, sensitivity = 0.62, and specificity = 0.82) for ALP > 1.67*ULN and "moderate" (AUROC = 0.74, sensitivity = 0.57, and specificity = 0.70) for Paris II. Our dynamic model significantly improved accuracy for both definitions of ITR (ALP > 1.67*ULN: AUROC = 0.91; Paris II: AUROC = 0.81); specificity approached 100%. Roughly 9% of patients in our cohort were at the highest risk of ITR. CONCLUSIONS: Early identification of patients who will not respond to UDCA treatment using a dynamic prediction model based on longitudinal, repeated risk factor measurements may facilitate earlier introduction of adjuvant treatment.

Improving Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Use in an Integrated Health System: Impact of a Provider and Staff Intervention.

PURPOSE: Acceptance and coverage of the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine in the United States has been suboptimal. We implemented a multifaceted provider and staff intervention over a 1-year period to promote HPV vaccination in a regional health care system. METHODS: The intervention was conducted in nine clinical departments from February 2015 to March 2016; 34 other departments served as controls. The intervention included in-person provider and staff education, quarterly feedback of vaccine coverage, and system-wide changes to patient reminder and recall notifications. Change in first-dose HPV vaccine coverage and series completion were estimated among 11- to 12-year-olds using generalized estimating equations adjusted for age and sex. RESULTS: HPV vaccine coverage in the intervention departments increased from 41% to 59%, and the increase was significantly greater than that seen in the control departments (32%-45%, p = .0002). The largest increase occurred in the quarter after completion of the provider and staff education and a patient reminder and recall postcard mailing (p = .004). Series completion also increased significantly system wide among adolescents aged 11-12 years following mailing of HPV vaccine reminder letters to parents of adolescents aged 12 years rather than 16 years. CONCLUSIONS: HPV vaccine uptake can be improved through a multifaceted approach that includes provider and staff education and patient reminder/recall. System-level change to optimize reminder and recall notices can have substantial impact on HPV vaccine utilization.