A temporally and spatially explicit, data-driven estimation of airborne ragweed pollen concentrations across Europe.

Ongoing and future climate change driven expansion of aeroallergen-producing plant species comprise a major human health problem across Europe and elsewhere. There is an urgent need to produce accurate, temporally dynamic maps at the continental level, especially in the context of climate uncertainty. This study aimed to restore missing daily ragweed pollen data sets for Europe, to produce phenological maps of ragweed pollen, resulting in the most complete and detailed high-resolution ragweed pollen concentration maps to date. To achieve this, we have developed two statistical procedures, a Gaussian method (GM) and deep learning (DL) for restoring missing daily ragweed pollen data sets, based on the plant's reproductive and growth (phenological, pollen production and frost-related) characteristics. DL model performances were consistently better for estimating seasonal pollen integrals than those of the GM approach. These are the first published modelled maps using altitude correction and flowering phenology to recover missing pollen information. We created a web page (http://euragweedpollen.gmf.u-szeged.hu/), including daily ragweed pollen concentration data sets of the stations examined and their restored daily data, allowing one to upload newly measured or recovered daily data. Generation of these maps provides a means to track pollen impacts in the context of climatic shifts, identify geographical regions with high pollen exposure, determine areas of future vulnerability, apply spatially-explicit mitigation measures and prioritize management interventions.

Higher airborne pollen concentrations correlated with increased SARS-CoV-2 infection rates, as evidenced from 31 countries across the globe.

Pollen exposure weakens the immunity against certain seasonal respiratory viruses by diminishing the antiviral interferon response. Here we investigate whether the same applies to the pandemic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which is sensitive to antiviral interferons, if infection waves coincide with high airborne pollen concentrations. Our original hypothesis was that more airborne pollen would lead to increases in infection rates. To examine this, we performed a cross-sectional and longitudinal data analysis on SARS-CoV-2 infection, airborne pollen, and meteorological factors. Our dataset is the most comprehensive, largest possible worldwide from 130 stations, across 31 countries and five continents. To explicitly investigate the effects of social contact, we additionally considered population density of each study area, as well as lockdown effects, in all possible combinations: without any lockdown, with mixed lockdown-no lockdown regime, and under complete lockdown. We found that airborne pollen, sometimes in synergy with humidity and temperature, explained, on average, 44% of the infection rate variability. Infection rates increased after higher pollen concentrations most frequently during the four previous days. Without lockdown, an increase of pollen abundance by 100 pollen/m3 resulted in a 4% average increase of infection rates. Lockdown halved infection rates under similar pollen concentrations. As there can be no preventive measures against airborne pollen exposure, we suggest wide dissemination of pollen-virus coexposure dire effect information to encourage high-risk individuals to wear particle filter masks during high springtime pollen concentrations.

Anthropogenic climate change is worsening North American pollen seasons.

Airborne pollen has major respiratory health impacts and anthropogenic climate change may increase pollen concentrations and extend pollen seasons. While greenhouse and field studies indicate that pollen concentrations are correlated with temperature, a formal detection and attribution of the role of anthropogenic climate change in continental pollen seasons is urgently needed. Here, we use long-term pollen data from 60 North American stations from 1990 to 2018, spanning 821 site-years of data, and Earth system model simulations to quantify the role of human-caused climate change in continental patterns in pollen concentrations. We find widespread advances and lengthening of pollen seasons (+20 d) and increases in pollen concentrations (+21%) across North America, which are strongly coupled to observed warming. Human forcing of the climate system contributed ∼50% (interquartile range: 19-84%) of the trend in pollen seasons and ∼8% (4-14%) of the trend in pollen concentrations. Our results reveal that anthropogenic climate change has already exacerbated pollen seasons in the past three decades with attendant deleterious effects on respiratory health.

Global Climate Change and Pollen Aeroallergens: A Southern Hemisphere Perspective.

Climatic change will have an impact on production and release of pollen, with consequences for the duration and magnitude of aeroallergen seasonal exposure and allergic diseases. Evaluations of pollen aerobiology in the southern hemisphere have been limited by resourcing and the density of monitoring sites. This review emphasizes inconsistencies in pollen monitoring methods and metrics used globally. Research should consider unique southern hemisphere biodiversity, climate, plant distributions, standardization of pollen aerobiology, automation, and environmental integration. For both hemispheres, there is a clear need for better understanding of likely influences of climate change and comprehending their impact on pollen-related health outcomes.

Temperature-related changes in airborne allergenic pollen abundance and seasonality across the northern hemisphere: a retrospective data analysis.

BACKGROUND: Ongoing climate change might, through rising temperatures, alter allergenic pollen biology across the northern hemisphere. We aimed to analyse trends in pollen seasonality and pollen load and to establish whether there are specific climate-related links to any observed changes. METHODS: For this retrospective data analysis, we did an extensive search for global datasets with 20 years or more of airborne pollen data that consistently recorded pollen season indices (eg, duration and intensity). 17 locations across three continents with long-term (approximately 26 years on average) quantitative records of seasonal concentrations of multiple pollen (aeroallergen) taxa met the selection criteria. These datasets were analysed in the context of recent annual changes in maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) associated with anthropogenic climate change. Seasonal regressions (slopes) of variation in pollen load and pollen season duration over time were compared to Tmax, cumulative degree day Tmax, Tmin, cumulative degree day Tmin, and frost-free days among all 17 locations to ascertain significant correlations. FINDINGS: 12 (71%) of the 17 locations showed significant increases in seasonal cumulative pollen or annual pollen load. Similarly, 11 (65%) of the 17 locations showed a significant increase in pollen season duration over time, increasing, on average, 0·9 days per year. Across the northern hemisphere locations analysed, annual cumulative increases in Tmax over time were significantly associated with percentage increases in seasonal pollen load (r=0·52, p=0·034) as were annual cumulative increases in Tmin (r=0·61, p=0·010). Similar results were observed for pollen season duration, but only for cumulative degree days (higher than the freezing point [0°C or 32°F]) for Tmax (r=0·53, p=0·030) and Tmin (r=0·48, p=0·05). Additionally, temporal increases in frost-free days per year were significantly correlated with increases in both pollen load (r=0·62, p=0·008) and pollen season duration (r=0·68, p=0·003) when averaged for all 17 locations. INTERPRETATION: Our findings reveal that the ongoing increase in temperature extremes (Tmin and Tmax) might already be contributing to extended seasonal duration and increased pollen load for multiple aeroallergenic pollen taxa in diverse locations across the northern hemisphere. This study, done across multiple continents, highlights an important link between ongoing global warming and public health-one that could be exacerbated as temperatures continue to increase. FUNDING: None.

Associations between alteration in plant phenology and hay fever prevalence among US adults: Implication for changing climate.

Plant phenology (e.g. timing of spring green-up, flowering) is among the most sensitive indicator of ecological response to ongoing climate variability and change. While previous studies have documented changes in the timing of spring green-up and flowering across different parts of the world, empirical evidence regarding how such ongoing ecological changes impact allergic disease burden at population level is lacking. Because earlier spring green-up may increase season length for tree pollen, we hypothesized that early onset of spring (negative anomaly in start of season (SOS)) will be associated with increased hay fever burden. To test this, we first calculated a median cardinal date for SOS for each county within the contiguous US for the years 2001-2013 using phenology data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We categorized yearly deviations in SOS for each county from their respective long-term averages as: very early (>3 wks early), early (1-3 wks early), average (within 1 wk), late (1-3 wks late) and very late (> 3 wks late). We linked these data to 2002-2013 National Health Interview Survey data, and investigated the association between changes in SOS and hay fever prevalence using logistic regression. We observed that adults living in counties with a very early onset of SOS had a 14% higher odds of hay fever compared to the reference group, i.e. those living in counties where onset of spring was within the normal range (Odds Ratios (OR): 1.14. 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.03-1.27). Likewise, adults living in counties with very late onset of SOS had a 18% higher odds hay fever compared to the reference group (OR: 1.18, CI: 1.05-1.32). Our data provides the first-ever national scale assessment of the impact of changing plant phenology-linked to ongoing climate variability and change-on hay fever prevalence. Our findings are likely tied to changes in pollen dynamics, i.e early onset of spring increases the duration of exposure to tree pollen, while very late onset of spring increases the propensity of exposure because of simultaneous blooming.

Exposure to Extreme Heat Events Is Associated with Increased Hay Fever Prevalence among Nationally Representative Sample of US Adults: 1997-2013.

BACKGROUND: Warmer temperature can alter seasonality of pollen as well as pollen concentration, and may impact allergic diseases such as hay fever. Recent studies suggest that extreme heat events will likely increase in frequency, intensity, and duration in coming decades in response to changing climate. OBJECTIVE: The overall objective of this study was to investigate if extreme heat events are associated with hay fever. METHODS: We linked National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) data from 1997 to 2013 (n = 505,386 respondents) with extreme heat event data, defined as days when daily maximum temperature (TMAX) exceeded the 95th percentile values of TMAX for a 30-year reference period (1960-1989). We used logistic regression to investigate the associations between exposure to annual and seasonal extreme heat events and adult hay fever prevalence among the NHIS respondents. RESULTS: During 1997-2013, hay fever prevalence among adults 18 years and older was 8.43%. Age, race/ethnicity, poverty status, education, and sex were significantly associated with hay fever status. We observed that adults in the highest quartile of exposure to extreme heat events had a 7% increased odds of hay fever compared with those in the lowest quartile of exposure (odds ratios: 1.07, 95% confidence interval: 1.02-1.11). This relationship was more pronounced for extreme heat events that occurred during spring season, with evidence of an exposure-response relationship (Ptrend < .01). CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that exposure to extreme heat events is associated with increased prevalence of hay fever among US adults.

Rising atmospheric CO2 is reducing the protein concentration of a floral pollen source essential for North American bees.

At present, there is substantive evidence that the nutritional content of agriculturally important food crops will decrease in response to rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, Ca However, whether Ca-induced declines in nutritional quality are also occurring for pollinator food sources is unknown. Flowering late in the season, goldenrod (Solidago spp.) pollen is a widely available autumnal food source commonly acknowledged by apiarists to be essential to native bee (e.g. Bombus spp.) and honeybee (Apis mellifera) health and winter survival. Using floral collections obtained from the Smithsonian Natural History Museum, we quantified Ca-induced temporal changes in pollen protein concentration of Canada goldenrod (Solidago canadensis), the most wide spread Solidago taxon, from hundreds of samples collected throughout the USA and southern Canada over the period 1842-2014 (i.e. a Ca from approx. 280 to 398 ppm). In addition, we conducted a 2 year in situtrial of S. Canadensis populations grown along a continuous Ca gradient from approximately 280 to 500 ppm. The historical data indicated a strong significant correlation between recent increases in Ca and reductions in pollen protein concentration (r(2)= 0.81). Experimental data confirmed this decrease in pollen protein concentration, and indicated that it would be ongoing as Ca continues to rise in the near term, i.e. to 500 ppm (r(2)= 0.88). While additional data are needed to quantify the subsequent effects of reduced protein concentration for Canada goldenrod on bee health and population stability, these results are the first to indicate that increasing Ca can reduce protein content of a floral pollen source widely used by North American bees.

Anthropogenic climate change and allergen exposure: The role of plant biology.

Accumulation of anthropogenic gases, particularly CO(2), is likely to have 2 fundamental effects on plant biology. The first is an indirect effect through Earth's increasing average surface temperatures, with subsequent effects on other aspects of climate, such as rainfall and extreme weather events. The second is a direct effect caused by CO(2)-induced stimulation of photosynthesis and plant growth. Both effects are likely to alter a number of fundamental aspects of plant biology and human health, including aerobiology and allergic diseases, respectively. This review highlights the current and projected effect of increasing CO(2) and climate change in the context of plants and allergen exposure, emphasizing direct effects on plant physiologic parameters (eg, pollen production) and indirect effects (eg, fungal sporulation) related to diverse biotic and abiotic interactions. Overall, the review assumes that future global mitigation efforts will be limited and suggests a number of key research areas that will assist in adapting to the ongoing challenges to public health associated with increased allergen exposure.

Recent warming by latitude associated with increased length of ragweed pollen season in central North America.

A fundamental aspect of climate change is the potential shifts in flowering phenology and pollen initiation associated with milder winters and warmer seasonal air temperature. Earlier floral anthesis has been suggested, in turn, to have a role in human disease by increasing time of exposure to pollen that causes allergic rhinitis and related asthma. However, earlier floral initiation does not necessarily alter the temporal duration of the pollen season, and, to date, no consistent continental trend in pollen season length has been demonstrated. Here we report that duration of the ragweed (Ambrosia spp.) pollen season has been increasing in recent decades as a function of latitude in North America. Latitudinal effects on increasing season length were associated primarily with a delay in first frost of the fall season and lengthening of the frost free period. Overall, these data indicate a significant increase in the length of the ragweed pollen season by as much as 13-27 d at latitudes above ~44°N since 1995. This is consistent with recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections regarding enhanced warming as a function of latitude. If similar warming trends accompany long-term climate change, greater exposure times to seasonal allergens may occur with subsequent effects on public health.

Cities as harbingers of climate change: common ragweed, urbanization, and public health.

BACKGROUND: Although controlled laboratory experiments have been conducted to demonstrate the sensitivity of allergenic pollen production to future climatic change (ie, increased CO(2) and temperature), no in situ data are available. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this investigation was to assess, under realistic conditions, the impact of climatic change on pollen production of common ragweed, a ubiquitous weed occurring in disturbed sites and the principal source of pollen associated with seasonal allergenic rhinitis. METHODS: We used an existing temperature/CO(2) gradient between urban and rural areas to examine the quantitative and qualitative aspects of ragweed growth and pollen production. RESULTS: For 2000 and 2001, average daily (24-hour) values of CO(2) concentration and air temperature within an urban environment were 30% to 31% and 1.8 degrees to 2.0 degrees C (3.4 degrees to 3.6 degrees F) higher than those at a rural site. This result is consistent with most global change scenarios. Ragweed grew faster, flowered earlier, and produced significantly greater above-ground biomass and ragweed pollen at urban locations than at rural locations. CONCLUSIONS: Here we show that 2 aspects of future global environmental change, air temperature and atmospheric CO(2), are already significantly higher in urban relative to rural areas. In general, we show that regional urbanization-induced temperature/CO(2) increases similar to those associated with projected global climatic change might already have public health consequences; we suggest that urbanization, per se, might provide a low-cost alternative to current experimental methods evaluating plant responses to climate change.