Comparative efficacy of five traditional Chinese medicine injections for treating heart failure with reduced and mildly reduced ejection fraction: Bayesian network meta-analysis.

Background: More than half of all heart failure (HF) patients have heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) or mildly reduced ejection fraction (HFmrEF). The combination of traditional Chinese medicine injections (TCMIs) with Western medicine treatment (WMT) has been reported to have better efficacy than using WMT alone. However, the positive effects of TCMIs combined with WMT on HFrEF and HFmrEF require more comprehensive and systematic evidence and warrant further investigation. Methods: The NMA searched eight databases, including four English and four Chinese, from database creation to November 10, 2022. We used the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool (ROB 2) to assess the selected studies' quality. OpenBUGS and STATA 17.0 were used for network meta-analysis. Results: The 101 RCTs were included in the systematic review. Studies have shown that when combined with any of the five TCMIs, WMT was more efficient than WMT alone. Shenmai injection (SMI) + WMT may be the best treatment for clinical effectiveness rate (CER) improvement and b-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) reduction. Huangqi injection (HQI) + WMT was the best treatment for improving left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Danhong injection (DHI) + WMT may be the best treatment for lowering left ventricular end-diastolic dimension (LVEDD). Xinmailong injection (XMLI) + WMT was likely the best treatment for increasing the 6-min walking test (6MWT). In addition, XMLI had the lowest incidence of adverse reactions (3.38%). Conclusions: Shenfu injection (SFI), SMI, DHI, XMLI, and HQI combined with WMT have stronger efficiency in treating HFrEF and HFmrEF. However, as all studies were conducted in China, this review is limited by the inevitable selection bias, and further high-quality multicenter randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are required.

Efficacy of Chinese traditional patent medicines for heart failure with preserved ejection fraction: a Bayesian network meta-analysis of 64 randomized controlled trials.

Background: Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) is associated with substantial morbidity and mortality, and modern medicine offers less effective treatment for HFpEF. Much evidence shows that Chinese traditional patent medicines (CTPMs) have good efficacy for HFpEF, but the advantages and disadvantages of different CTPMs for HFpEF are still unclear. This study used network meta-analysis (NMA) to compare clinical efficacies of different CTPMs for HFpEF. Methods: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of CTPMs for treating HFpEF were searched in seven Chinese and English databases from inception to September 2023: China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), Wanfang, VIP, China Biology Medicine, PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Embase. Two researchers independently screened the literature, extracted data, and evaluated the quality of the included studies. The GeMTC package in R (version 4.1.2) was used to perform Bayesian NMA. Results: A total of 64 RCTs were included, involving six CTPMs and 6,238 patients. The six CTPMs were Qili Qiangxin capsule (QLQXC), Qishen Yiqi dropping pill (QSYQDP), Yixinshu capsule (YXSC), Yangxinshi tablet (YXST), Shexiang Baoxin Pill (SXBXP), and Tongxinluo capsule (TXLC). Conventional Western medicine (CWM) treatment was given to the control group, and CWM treatment combined with CTPM treatment was given to the experimental group. The results indicated that CPTMs + CWM were all superior to CWM alone; SXBXP + CWM had the best efficacies in improving the New York Heart Association cardiac functional classification efficiency; TXLC + CWM was best at improving the ratio of early diastolic mitral inflow velocity to late diastolic mitral inflow velocity (E/A); QSYQDP + CWM was best at reducing N-terminal pro-B type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP); and QSYQDP + CWM was best at improving the 6-min walking test. In terms of safety, there was no significant difference between CTPMs + CWM and CWM. Conclusion: Compared with CWM alone, CTPMs + CWM combinations have certain advantages and good safety in the treatment of HFpEF. QSYQDP + CWM and SXBXP + CWM may be the potential optimal integrative medicine-based treatments for HFpEF. Given the limitations of this study, further high-quality, multicenter, large sample, randomized, and double-blind studies are needed to confirm the current results. Systematic Review Registration: identifier, CRD42022303938.

A Bayesian framework for pathway-guided identification of cancer subgroups by integrating multiple types of genomic data.

In recent years, comprehensive cancer genomics platforms, such as The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), provide access to an enormous amount of high throughput genomic datasets for each patient, including gene expression, DNA copy number alterations, DNA methylation, and somatic mutation. While the integration of these multi-omics datasets has the potential to provide novel insights that can lead to personalized medicine, most existing approaches only focus on gene-level analysis and lack the ability to facilitate biological findings at the pathway-level. In this article, we propose Bayes-InGRiD (Bayesian Integrative Genomics Robust iDentification of cancer subgroups), a novel pathway-guided Bayesian sparse latent factor model for the simultaneous identification of cancer patient subgroups (clustering) and key molecular features (variable selection) within a unified framework, based on the joint analysis of continuous, binary, and count data. By utilizing pathway (gene set) information, Bayes-InGRiD does not only enhance the accuracy and robustness of cancer patient subgroup and key molecular feature identification, but also promotes biological understanding and interpretation. Finally, to facilitate an efficient posterior sampling, an alternative Gibbs sampler for logistic and negative binomial models is proposed using Pólya-Gamma mixtures of normal to represent latent variables for binary and count data, which yields a conditionally Gaussian representation of the posterior. The R package "INGRID" implementing the proposed approach is currently available in our research group GitHub webpage (https://dongjunchung.github.io/INGRID/).

Predictors of Clinical Nurse Leader implementation success across a national sample of settings: A Bayesian multilevel modeling analysis.

INTRODUCTION: The Clinical Nurse Leader (CNL) care model is a different way of organizing frontline nursing care delivery in contrast to the traditional "staff nurse" model and is increasingly being adopted by health systems across the United States and abroad. However, variability in implementation and outcomes has been noted across health settings. AIM: A recently validated CNL Practice Model provides an explanatory pathway for CNL model integration into practice. The purpose of this study was to identify and compare patterns of empirical correspondence to the CNL Practice Model and predict their influence on implementation success. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of a 2015 national-level study with clinicians and administrators involved with CNL initiatives in their health system. A psychometrically validated CNL Practice Survey was used to collect data measuring the presence (0%-100%) of the five domains of the CNL Practice Model (organizational readiness, CNL structuring, CNL practices, outcomes, and value) and one measure of CNL implementation success. We modeled the complex hierarchical structure of the data using a Bayesian multilevel regression mixed modeling approach. A zero-one-inflated beta distribution, a mixture of Bernoulli distributions for the minimum and maximum responses and a beta distribution for the responses between the minimum and maximum, was used to fit success ratings in the model. RESULTS: A total of 920 participants responded, 540 (59%) provided success scores. The model captured ratings skewed toward upper bound, while also adequately modeling data between the minimum and maximum values. The Bayesian model converged and gave estimates for all hierarchical parameters, which would likely have failed to converge in a pure maximum likelihood framework. The variability around success score across CNL Practice Model element ratings was greatest at the component level, 0.29 (0.18-0.48), compared to either the domain level, 0.16 (0.01-0.54), or the item level, 0.09 (0.01-0.17). The components most predictive of implementation success were (a) consensus CNL model can close gaps, (b) organization level implementation strategy, and (c) alignment of empirical CNL microsystem level structuring to the model's conceptualization. CONCLUSIONS: Findings provide further empirical evidence to support the explanatory pathway proposed by the CNL Practice Model and identified specific organizational readiness and CNL workflow structures that are critical antecedents predictive of CNL practice manifestation and production of expected outcomes. Findings indicate actionable implementation evidence that can be successfully adopted across real-world healthcare settings to achieve safer and higher quality patient care. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: CNL integrated care delivery is a frontline nursing care model that is being increasingly adopted by health systems across the United States and abroad. However, variability in CNL implementation and outcomes has been noted across health settings, limiting its evidence base. Findings of this study contribute a better understanding about the variability of CNL practice and outcomes found in the literature and contribute empirical and conceptual clarity about the relationships between modes of CNL implementation and successful adoption in healthcare settings.

[Network Meta-analysis of Chinese patent medicine containing Hirudo in treatment of atherosclerosis].

This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of Chinese patent medicines containing Hirudo in the treatment of atherosclerosis(AS) by network Meta-analysis, and to provide evidence-based reference for clinical treatment of AS. The clinical randomized controlled trial(RCT) on the treatment of atherosclerosis with Chinese patent medicines containing Hirudo were searched in CNKI, Wanfang, VIP, SinoMed, PubMed and EMbase from the establishment of the databases to July 1, 2022. And data extraction and quality assessment of the included RCT was performed according to the Cochrane standards. Stata 17 and ADDIS 1.16.5 were then used for Bayesian model network Meta-analysis. Finally, 67 RCTs with a total sample size of 6 826 cases were included, 3 569 cases in the experimental group and 3 257 cases in the control group, involving three oral Chinese patent medicines. Network Meta-analysis showed that in terms of reducing intima-media thickness(IMT), the top three Chinese patent medicines were Tongxinluo Capsules+sta-tins>Maixuekang Capsules+statins>Maixuekang Capsules. In terms of reducing plaque area, the top one was Maixuekang Capsules+sta-tins, and the other Chinese patent medicines had similar efficacy. For lowering AS Crouse scores, the top three were Maixuekang Capsules>Tongxinluo Capsules+statins>Naoxintong Capsules. For decreasing plaque number, the top three were Naoxintong Capsules+sta-tins>Tongxinluo Capsules+statins>Tongxinluo Capsules. With regard to adverse reactions/events, Naoxintong Capsules+statins had the lo-west incidence. In conclusion, in Chinese patent medicines containing Hirudo for the treatment of AS, Tongxinluo Capsules+statins, Maixuekang Capsules, Maixuekang Capsules+statins, and Naoxintong Capsules+statins were the primary choices to reduce IMT, AS Crouse scores, plaque area, and plaque number, respectively. The efficacy of Chinese patent medicines containing Hirudo with or without statins was more significant than that of statins alone in the four outcome indexes. Additionally, the treatment of AS should be evaluated comprehensively, and attention should be paid to Chinese patent medicines or their combination with western medicine, to optimize the treatment effect and minimize adverse reactions as the benchmark.

Network Meta-analysis of Chinese patent medicine containing Hirudo in treatment of atherosclerosis / 中国中药杂志

This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of Chinese patent medicines containing Hirudo in the treatment of atherosclerosis(AS) by network Meta-analysis, and to provide evidence-based reference for clinical treatment of AS. The clinical randomized controlled trial(RCT) on the treatment of atherosclerosis with Chinese patent medicines containing Hirudo were searched in CNKI, Wanfang, VIP, SinoMed, PubMed and EMbase from the establishment of the databases to July 1, 2022. And data extraction and quality assessment of the included RCT was performed according to the Cochrane standards. Stata 17 and ADDIS 1.16.5 were then used for Bayesian model network Meta-analysis. Finally, 67 RCTs with a total sample size of 6 826 cases were included, 3 569 cases in the experimental group and 3 257 cases in the control group, involving three oral Chinese patent medicines. Network Meta-analysis showed that in terms of reducing intima-media thickness(IMT), the top three Chinese patent medicines were Tongxinluo Capsules+sta-tins>Maixuekang Capsules+statins>Maixuekang Capsules. In terms of reducing plaque area, the top one was Maixuekang Capsules+sta-tins, and the other Chinese patent medicines had similar efficacy. For lowering AS Crouse scores, the top three were Maixuekang Capsules>Tongxinluo Capsules+statins>Naoxintong Capsules. For decreasing plaque number, the top three were Naoxintong Capsules+sta-tins>Tongxinluo Capsules+statins>Tongxinluo Capsules. With regard to adverse reactions/events, Naoxintong Capsules+statins had the lo-west incidence. In conclusion, in Chinese patent medicines containing Hirudo for the treatment of AS, Tongxinluo Capsules+statins, Maixuekang Capsules, Maixuekang Capsules+statins, and Naoxintong Capsules+statins were the primary choices to reduce IMT, AS Crouse scores, plaque area, and plaque number, respectively. The efficacy of Chinese patent medicines containing Hirudo with or without statins was more significant than that of statins alone in the four outcome indexes. Additionally, the treatment of AS should be evaluated comprehensively, and attention should be paid to Chinese patent medicines or their combination with western medicine, to optimize the treatment effect and minimize adverse reactions as the benchmark.

Comparative efficacy of various CHIs combined with western medicine for non-small cell lung cancer: A bayesian network meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

Background: Given the limitations of Western medicine (WM) for the treatment of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and the wide exploration of Chinese herbal injections (CHIs), systematically evaluate the efficacy of Various CHIs Combined with WM for Non-small Cell Lung Cancer. In this study, we performed a network meta-analysis to evaluate the comparative efficacy of 16 CHIs combined with WM regimens for the treatment of NSCLC. Methods: Literature databases were searched from their inception to November 2021, and all randomized control trials (RCTs) involving NSCLC patients treated with a combination of Chinese and WM were retrieved. Outcomes, including disease control rate, survival quality score, incidence of gastrointestinal adverse reactions, incidence of leukopenia, and incidence of thrombocytopenia, were analyzed using RevMan (5.3), Stata17, and R software. Surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA) probability values were calculated to rank the treatments examined, and clustering analysis was used to compare the effects of CHIs on different outcomes. Results: A total of 389 studies involving 31,263 patients and 16 CHIs were included. The 16 CHIs were: Aidi injection (ADI), Huachansu injection (HCSI), oil of Ophiopogon injection (OOMI), disodium cantharidinate and vitamin B6 injection (DCI), Shenfu injection (SFI), Shenmai injection (SMI), Shenqi Fuzheng injection (SQFZI), Chansu injection (CSI), Delisheng injection (DLSI), Fufang Kushen injection (FFKSI), Huangqi injection (HQI), Kangai injection (KAI), Kanglaite injection (KLTI), Shengmai injection (SI), Xiangguduotang injection (XGDTI), and Xiaoaiping injection (XAPI). The results of the network meta-analysis showed that, with WM treatment as a co-intervention, CSI was most likely to improve the disease control rate (SUCRA = 80.90%), HQI had the highest probability of being the best option for improving the survival quality score (SUCRA = 82.60%), DCI had the highest probability of reducing the incidence of gastrointestinal adverse reactions (SUCRA = 85.50%), HCSI + WM had the highest probability of reducing the incidence of thrombocytopenia (SUCRA = 91.30%), while SMI had the highest probability of reducing the incidence of leukopenia (SUCRA = 79.10%). Conclusion: CHIs combined with WM is proved to be more effective than WM alone, which may be beneficial to NSCLC patients. SMI + WM and DCI + WM are most likely the optimal CHI to improve disease control rates, survival quality score, and reduce adverse effects. This study has limitations; therefore, higher quality RCTs and real-world evidence are required to support our conclusions.

Determinants of Task-Based Exposures to Alpha-Diketones in Coffee Roasting and Packaging Facilities Using a Bayesian Model Averaging Approach.

Coffee production workers can be exposed to inhalational hazards including alpha-diketones such as diacetyl and 2,3-pentanedione. Exposure to diacetyl is associated with the development of occupational lung disease, including obliterative bronchiolitis, a rare and irreversible lung disease. We aimed to identify determinants contributing to task-based exposures to diacetyl and 2,3-pentanedione at 17 U.S. coffee production facilities. We collected 606 personal short-term task-based samples including roasting (n = 189), grinding (n = 74), packaging (n = 203), quality control (QC, n = 44), flavoring (n = 15), and miscellaneous production/café tasks (n = 81), and analyzed for diacetyl and 2,3-pentanedione in accordance with the modified OSHA Method 1013/1016. We also collected instantaneous activity-based (n = 296) and source (n = 312) samples using evacuated canisters. Information on sample-level and process-level determinants relating to production scale, sources of alpha-diketones, and engineering controls was collected. Bayesian mixed-effect regression models accounting for censored data were fit for overall data (all tasks) and specific tasks. Notable determinants identified in univariate analyses were used to fit all plausible models in multiple regression analysis which were summarized using a Bayesian model averaging method. Grinding, flavoring, packaging, and production tasks with ground coffee were associated with the highest short-term and instantaneous-activity exposures for both analytes. Highest instantaneous-sources of diacetyl and 2,3-pentanedione included ground coffee, flavored coffee, liquid flavorings, and off-gassing coffee bins or packages. Determinants contributing to higher exposures to both analytes in all task models included sum of all open storage sources and average percent of coffee production as ground coffee. Additionally, flavoring ground coffee and flavoring during survey contributed to notably higher exposures for both analytes in most, but not all task groups. Alternatively, general exhaust ventilation contributed to lower exposures in all but two models. Additionally, among facilities that flavored, local exhaust ventilation during flavoring processes contributed to lower 2,3-pentanedione exposures during grinding and packaging tasks. Coffee production facilities can consider implementing additional exposure controls for processes, sources, and task-based determinants associated with higher exposures to diacetyl and 2,3-pentanedione, such as isolating, enclosing, and directly exhausting grinders, flavoring mixers, and open storage of off-gassing whole bean and ground coffee, to reduce exposures and minimize risks for lung disease among workers.

Trend and projection of skilled birth attendants and institutional delivery coverage for adolescents in 54 low- and middle-income countries, 2000-2030.

BACKGROUND: Limitations to accessing delivery care services increase the risks of adverse outcomes during pregnancy and delivery for all pregnant women, particularly among adolescents in LMICs. In order to inform adolescent-specific delivery care initiatives and coverage, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of trends, projections and inequalities in coverage of delivery care services among adolescents at national, urban-rural and socio-economic levels in LMICs. METHODS: Using 224 nationally representative cross-sectional survey data between 2000 and 2019, we estimated the coverage of institutional delivery (INSD) and skilled birth attendants (SBA). Bayesian hierarchical regression models were used to estimate trends, projections and determinants of INSD and SBA. RESULTS: Coverage of delivery care services among adolescents increased substantially at the national level, as well as in both urban and rural areas in most countries between 2000 and 2018. Of the 54 LMICs, 24 countries reached 80% coverage of both INSD and SBA in 2018, and predictions for 40 countries are set to exceed 80% by 2030. The trends in coverage of INSD and SBA of adult mothers mostly align with those for adolescent mothers. Our findings show that urban-rural and wealth-based inequalities to delivery care remain persistent by 2030. In 2018, urban settings across 54 countries had higher rates of coverage exceeding 80% compared to rural for both INSD (45 urban, 16 rural) and SBA (50 urban, 19 rural). Several factors such as household head age ≥ 46 years, household head being female, access to mass media, lower parity, higher education, higher ANC visits and higher socio-economic status could increase the coverage of INSD and SBA among adolescents and adult women. CONCLUSIONS: More than three-quarters of the LMICs are predicted to achieve 80% coverage of INSD and SBA among adolescent mothers in 2030, although with sustained inequalities.

Efficacy and Safety of Traditional Chinese Medicine Injections for Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction: A Bayesian Network Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials.

Background: Heart failure as an important issue in global public health, has brought a heavy economic burden. Traditional Chinese medicine injections (TCMIs) have significant effects on heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). However, it is difficult for clinicians to identify the differences in clinical efficacy and safety of various TCMIs. The purpose of this study is to compare the efficacy and safety of various TCMIs for treating HFrEF by conducting a Bayesian network meta-analysis (NMA) and to further provide references for clinical decision-making. Methods: The clinical randomized controlled trials of TCMIs for treating HFrEF were searched in seven database from inception to August 3rd, 2021. The Cochrane collaboration's tool was used to assess the risk of bias. NMA was performed in a Bayesian hierarchical framework. The surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA), the multi-dimensional efficacy analysis, the comparison-adjusted funnel plot, and the node-splitting analysis were conducted using R software. Results: A total of 107 eligible RCTs involving 9,073 HFrEF patients and 6 TCMIs were included. TCMIs include Huangqi injection (HQ) also called Astragalus injection, Shenfu injection (SF), Shengmai injection (SGM), Shenmai injection (SM), Xinmailong injection (XML), and Yiqifumai lyophilized injection (YQFM). The results of NMA and SUCRA showed that with conventional treatment (CT) as a common control, in terms of clinical efficacy, CT + XML was most effective in New York Heart Association cardiac functional classification efficiency, brain natriuretic peptide, and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide; the CT + SM was most effective in 6-min walking test, left ventricular end-diastolic diameter, left ventricular end-systolic diameter and cardiac output; the CT + YQFM was most effective in left ventricular ejection fraction; the CT + HQ was most effective in stroke volume; the CT + SF was most effective in Minnesota Living with Heart Failure Questionnaire. In terms of safety, there was no significant difference between CT + TCMIs and CT. Conclusion: This Bayesian network meta-analysis results show that the combination of qualified TCMIs and CT is more effective for HFrEF patients than CT alone, and CT + XML and CT + SM may be one of the potential optimal treatments. Also, the safety of these TCMIs needs to be further observed. However, due to some limitations, the conclusions need to be verified by more large-sample, double-blind, multi-center RCTs.

Investigation on the Efficiency of Chinese Herbal Injections combined with Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy for Treating Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma based on Multidimensional Bayesian Network Meta-analysis.

Introduction: Given the wide utilization of Chinese herbal injections in the treatment of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC), this network meta-analysis (NMA) was devised to compare the clinical efficacy and safety of different Chinese herbal injections combined with concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) against NPC. Methods: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) were retrieved from seven electronic databases from the date of database establishment to October 5, 2020. Study selection and data extraction conformed to a priori criteria. Focusing on clinical effective rate, performance status, grade ≥3 oral mucositis, nausea and vomiting, leukopenia, and thrombopenia, this NMA was performed with Review Manager 5.3.5, Stata 13.1, WinBUGS 1.4.3, and R 4.0.3 software. Results: Ten inventions from 37 RCTs involving 2,581 participants with NPC that evaluated the clinical effective rate, nausea and vomiting, leukopenia, thrombopenia, and grade ≥3 oral mucositis were included. Compared with CCRT alone, Elemene injection and Compound Kushen injection were associated with significantly improved clinical effective rates, and Elemene injection plus CCRT had the highest probability in terms of clinical effective rate (78.07%) compared with the other interventions. Shenqifuzheng injection, Xiaoaiping injection, and Shenmai injection ranked the best in terms of performance status (79.02%), nausea and vomiting (86.35%), and grade ≥3 oral mucositis (78.14%) when combined with CCRT. Kangai injection combined with CCRT ranked ahead of the other injections in terms of leukopenia (90.80%) and thrombopenia (91.04%), and had a better impact on improving performance status and reducing leukopenia, thrombopenia, grade ≥3 oral mucositis, and nausea and vomiting in the multidimensional cluster analysis. Conclusion: Current clinical evidence indicates that Elemene injection combined with CCRT has the best clinical effective rate and that Kangai injection might have a comprehensively better impact on improving performance status and reducing adverse reactions against NPC. Additionally, due to the limitations of this NMA, more multicenter, high-quality, and head-to-head RCTs are needed to properly support our findings.

Development of a Weighted-Incidence Syndromic Combination Antibiogram (WISCA) to guide the choice of the empiric antibiotic treatment for urinary tract infection in paediatric patients: a Bayesian approach.

BACKGROUND: To evaluate the ability of Weighted-Incidence Syndromic Combination Antibiograms (WISCA) to inform the selection of empirical antibiotic regimens for suspected paediatric community-acquired urinary tract infections. METHODS: Data were collected from outpatients (< 15 years) accessing the emergency rooms of Padua University-Hospital and Mestre Dell' Angelo-Hospital (Venice) between January 1st, 2016, and December 31st, 2018. WISCAs were developed by estimating the coverage of eight regimens using a Bayesian hierarchical model adjusted for age, sex, and previous antibiotic treatment or renal/urological comorbidities. RESULTS: 385 of 620 urine culture requests were included in the model analysis. The most frequently observed bacterium was E. coli (85% and 87%, Centre A and B). No centre effect on coverage estimates was found, and data were successfully pooled together. Coverage ranged from 77.8% (Co-trimoxazole) to 97.6% (Carbapenems). Complex cases and males had significantly lower odds of being covered by a regimen than non-complex cases and females (odds ratio (OR) 0.49 [95% HDI, 0.38-0.65], and OR: 0.73 [95% HDIs, 0.56-0.96] respectively). Children aged 3-5 years had lower odds of being covered by a regimen than other age groups, except for neonates. CONCLUSIONS: The developed WISCAs provide highly informative estimates on coverage patterns overcoming the limitation of combination antibiograms and expanding the framework of previous Bayesian WISCA algorithm.

Efficacy of Chinese Herbal Injections for the Treatment of Primary Nephrotic Syndrome: A Bayesian Network Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials.

BACKGROUND: Considering the adverse reactions and side effects of immunosuppressive and cytotoxic drugs for the treatment of Primary Nephrotic Syndrome (PNS) and the extensive exploration of Chinese herbal injections (CHIs), systematic evaluation of the efficacy of different CHIs in the treatment of PNS is a key imperative. In this study, we performed a network meta-analysis to investigate the efficacy of CHIs in the treatment of PNS. METHODS: A systematic literature review including studies published from the establishment of each database to May 28, 2020, was conducted in PubMed, the Cochrane Library, Embase, Web of Science, the Chinese Biological Medicine Literature Service System (CBM), the China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) database, the Chinese Scientific Journal Database (VIP), and the Wanfang Database (WF).Two evaluators independently screened the literature, extracted data and the Cochrane Reviewer's Handbook 5.1 method was used to evaluate the quality of included studies. The differences in efficacy of different CHIs were compared and ranked using Stata 16.0 software. Surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA) probability values were applied to rank the examined treatments. Clustering analysis was performed to compare the effects of CHIs between two different outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 41 eligible randomized controlled trials involving 2879 patients and nine CHIs were included. Nine CHIs were Xiangdan injection (XDI), Huangqi injection (HQI), Shenkang injection (SKI), Danshen injection (DSI), Yinxingdamo injection (YXI), Dengzhanhuasu injection (DZI), Danhong injection (DHI), Shuxuetong injection (SXI), Chuanxiongqin injection (CXI). The results of the network meta-analysis showed that: with Western medical (WM) treatment as a co-intervention, in terms of improving the total clinical effectiveness and serum albumin level, DHI was the most likely to be the best choice for treatment (SUCRA = 82.2%); YXI had the highest probability of being the best option in terms of reducing 24-h urinary protein excretion (SUCRA = 97.8%); in cholesterol-lowering comparisons, the SUCRA value allows for the most likely to be the best treatment is DZI (SUCRA = 84.5%). SXI was the most effective CHIs in terms of lowering serum triglycerides (SUCRA = 85.6%), whereas on the reducing fibrinogen side, the efficacy of CXI was significant (SUCRA = 67.6%). The result cluster analysis indicated that YXI and DHI were the best interventions with respect to total clinical effectiveness, 24-h urinary protein excretion and serum albumin. CONCLUSIONS: CHIs were found to be superior to WM alone in the treatment of PNS and may be beneficial for patients with PNS. WM+YXI and WM+DHI had the potential to be the best CHI with respect to the total clinical effectiveness, 24-h urinary protein excretion and serum albumin. However, more well-designed randomized controlled trials are still warranted.

Multi-model ensemble simulated non-point source pollution based on Bayesian model averaging method and model uncertainty analysis.

Watershed models are cost-effective and powerful tools for evaluating and controlling non-point source pollution (NPSP), while the reliability of watershed models in a management context depends largely on inherent uncertainties in model predictions. The objective of this study is to present the use of multi-model ensemble applied to streamflow, total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) simulation and quantify the uncertainty resulting from model structure. In this study, three watershed models, which have different structures in simulating NPSP, were selected to conduct watershed monthly streamflow, TN load, and TP load ensemble simulation and 90% credible intervals based on Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method. The result using the observed data of the Yixunhe watershed revealed that the coefficient of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of the BMA model simulate streamflow, TN load, and TP load were better than that of the single model. The higher the efficiency of a single model is, the greater the weight during the BMA ensemble simulation is. The 90% credible interval of BMA has a high coverage of measured values in this study. This indicates that the BMA method can not only provide simulation with better precision through ensemble simulation but also provide quantitative evaluation of the model structure through interval, which could offer rich information of the NPSP simulation and management.

Comparative Efficacy of Chinese Herbal Injections for the Treatment of Herpangina: A Bayesian Network Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials.

BACKGROUND: Considering the limitations of broad-spectrum antiviral drugs for the treatment of herpangina and the extensive exploration of Chinese herbal injections (CHIs), systematic evaluation of the efficacy of different CHIs in the treatment of herpangina is a key imperative. In this study, we performed a network meta-analysis to investigate the efficacy of CHIs, including Reduning injection (RDN), Shuanghuanglian injection (SHL), Tanreqing injection (TRQ), Xiyanping injection (XYP), and Yanhuning injection (YHN), in the treatment of herpangina. METHODS: A systematic literature review including studies published before December 17, 2018, was conducted in several databases. The quality of the included studies was assessed using the Cochrane risk of bias tool. Data were analyzed using STATA 13.0 and WinBUGS 1.4.3 software. Surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA) probability values were applied to rank the examined treatments. Clustering analysis was performed to compare the effects of CHIs between two different outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 72 eligible randomized controlled trials involving 8,592 patients and five CHIs were included. All patients were under the age of 15 years, and most were under 7 years. The results of the network meta-analysis showed that RDN, XYP, and YHN had significantly better treatment performance than ribavirin. SHL (OR: 0.18; 95% CI: 0.09-0.34) and TRQ (OR: 0.18; 95% CI: 0.10-0.31) were obviously superior to ribavirin with respect to total clinical effectiveness. The results of SUCRA and cluster analysis indicated that RDN is the best intervention with respect to total clinical effectiveness, antipyretic time, and blebs disappearing time. Fifty-four studies described adverse drug reactions/adverse drug events (ADRs/ADEs), and 32 studies reported ADRs/ADEs in detail. CONCLUSIONS: CHIs were found to be superior to ribavirin in terms of treatment performance and may be beneficial for patients with herpangina. RDN had the potential to be the best CHI with respect to all outcome measures. More evidence is needed to assess the safety aspects of CHIs.

Comparative Efficacy of Chinese Herbal Injections for Pulmonary Heart Disease: A Bayesian Network Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials.

BACKGROUND: Given the severity of pulmonary heart disease and the wide utilization of Chinese herbal injections, this network meta-analysis was devised to assess the comparative efficacy of seven Chinese herbal injections (Ciwujia injection, Dazhuhongjingtan injection, Huangqi injection, Shenfu injection, Shengmai injection, Shenmai injection, and Shenqi Fuzheng injection) that were combined with Western medicines in the treatment of pulmonary heart disease. METHODS: A literature search was performed in PubMed, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, Chinese Biological Medicine Database, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang Database, and the Chinese Scientific Journal Database from their inception to July14, 2019. This network meta-analysis was conducted in accordance with a priori eligibility criteria and methodological quality recommendations. Data analysis was performed with WinBUGS 1.4.3 and Stata 13.0 software focusing on clinical effectiveness rate, arterial blood gas analysis, hemorheology and hemodynamic indexes and right ventricular dimensions. In addition to the odds ratio or mean difference in various outcomes, the ranking probability of interventions calculated by the surface under the cumulative ranking area curve was demonstrated. The surface under the cumulative ranking area was equal to the rank of the intervention and was aimed to assess the best intervention. RESULTS: Ultimately, 118 randomized controlled trials including 10,085 patients were included. Integrating the outcome results, all eligible Chinese herbal injections plus Western medicines were superior to Western medicines alone, especially Shenfu injection+ Western medicines, Shenmai injection+ Western medicines, and Shenqi Fuzheng injection+ Western medicines. Regarding safety, the drip rate was an essential element for clinicians to consider during treatment. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, Shenfu injection+ Western medicines, Shenmai injection+ Western medicines and Shenqi Fuzheng injection+ Western medicines may be potential optimal treatments for pulmonary heart disease. A larger sample size and high-quality randomized controlled trials are needed to confirm and support this network meta-analysis.

Comparative Efficacy and Safety of Chinese Herbal Injections Combined With Cyclophosphamide and 5-Fluorouracil Chemotherapies in Treatment of Breast Cancer: A Bayesian Network Meta-Analysis.

Background: Given the limitations of chemotherapy for the treatment of breast cancer (BC) and the wide exploration of Chinese herbal injections (CHIs), this network meta-analysis (NMA) was conducted to analyze the comparative efficacy and safety of nine CHIs combined with CF (Cyclophosphamide and 5-Fluorouracil) chemotherapy regimens in the treatment of BC. Methods: Several electronic databases were searched to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs) from inception to January 6, 2020. RCTs were screened by pre-established eligibility criteria, and the quality of which was assessed using the Cochrane risk of bias tool. Outcomes such as the clinical effectiveness rate, performance status, peripheral hemogram, and detection of T-lymphocyte subsets were analyzed using the Winbugs 1.4.3 and Stata 13.0 software. Surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA) probability values were applied to rank the examined treatments. Cluster analysis was performed to compare the effect of CHIs between two or three different outcomes. Results: A total of 84 RCTs involving 7855 patients and nine CHIs were included. The results showed that compared to CF chemotherapy regimens alone, the ones injected along with Aidi, Shenmai, Shenqi Fuzheng, Kangai, Kanglaite, or Shengmai combined with CF can improve the clinical effectiveness rate. Aidi, Shenmai, Shenqi Fuzheng, Compound Kushen, Kangai, and Kanglaite injection combined with CF can improve the performance status. Shenqi Fuzheng injection was considered as a favorable choice for relieving adverse reactions. According to the results of cluster analysis, Aidi injection and Compound Kushen injection plus CF were more favorable for the clinical effectiveness rate and performance status. Conclusion: In conclusion, Shenqi Fuzheng, Compound Kushen, Aidi, and Kangai injection combined with CF chemotherapy regimen have more significant effects for patients with BC. However, more high-quality clinical RCTs, especialy which correctly use blinding and allocation concealment, are required to support the conclusions.

Identification of Essential 2D and 3D Chemical Features for Discovery of the Novel Tubulin Polymerization Inhibitors.

BACKGROUND: Tubulin polymerization inhibitors interfere with microtubule assembly and their functions lead to mitotic arrest, therefore they are attractive target for design and development of novel anticancer compounds. OBJECTIVE: The proposed novel and effective structures following the use of three-dimensionalquantitative structure activity relationship (3D-QSAR) pharmacophore based virtual screening clearly demonstrate the high efficiency of this method in modern drug discovery. METHODS: Combined computational approach was applied to extract the essential 2D and 3D features requirements for higher activity as well as identify new anti-tubulin agents. RESULTS: The best quantitative pharmacophore model, Hypo1, exhibited good correlation of 0.943 (RMSD=1.019) and excellent predictive power in the training set compounds. Generated model AHHHR, was well mapped to colchicine site and three-dimensional spatial arrangement of their features were in good agreement with the vital interactions in the active site. Total prediction accuracy (0.92 for training set and 0.86 for test set), enrichment factor (4.2 for training set and 4.5 for test set) and the area under the ROC curve (0.86 for training set and 0.94 for the test set), the developed model using Extended Class FingerPrints of maximum diameter 4 (ECFP_4) was chosen as the best model. CONCLUSION: Developed computational platform provided a better understanding of requirement features for colchicine site inhibitors and we believe the results of this study might be useful for the rational design and optimization of new inhibitors.

Comparative efficacy of Chinese herbal injections for angina pectoris: A Bayesian network meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

OBJECTIVE: The severity of angina pectoris has been recognized. It is believed that Chinese herbal injections have an outstanding clinical effect on this condition. This network meta-analysis was devised to investigate the comparative efficacy of eight Chinese herbal injections (Ciwujia injection, Dazhuhongjingtan injection, Huangqi injection, Shenfu injection, Shengmai injection, Shenmai injection, Shenqi Fuzheng injection, Yiqifumai injection) in the treatment of angina pectoris. METHODS: A literature search was performed in PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library, Chinese Biological Medicine Database, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang Database, and Chinese Scientific Journal Database from their inception to June 25, 2018. A pre-designed eligibility criterion was utilized in this network meta-analysis, and a methodological quality analysis was conducted. Data analysis was performed by WinGUGS 1.4.3, Stata 13.0 and TSA software, and the odds ratio or mean difference with the 95% credible interval was reported for symptomatic improvement, electrocardiography improvement, fibrinogen, triglyceride and cholesterol. The ranking probability of interventions in various outcomes was also utilized. RESULTS: A total of 73 randomized controlled trials with 6639 patients were identified. Integrating network meta-analysis results, Shenqi Fuzheng injection plus western medicine therapy and Shenmai injection plus western medicine therapy were shown to be more efficacious than other therapies. In addition, Huangqi injection plus western medicine therapy and Shenmai injection plus western medicine therapy performed well in improving the haemorheology index and serum lipid parameters. CONCLUSIONS: Eligible Chinese herbal injections plus western medicine therapy might have a better impact on angina pectoris patients than western medicine therapy alone. While this study had limitations, the findings should be interpreted with caution. In addition, more high-quality randomized controlled trials with a large sample must be conducted to support this study.

Bayesian neural adjustment of inhibitory control predicts emergence of problem stimulant use.

Bayesian ideal observer models quantify individuals' context- and experience-dependent beliefs and expectations about their environment, which provides a powerful approach (i) to link basic behavioural mechanisms to neural processing; and (ii) to generate clinical predictors for patient populations. Here, we focus on (ii) and determine whether individual differences in the neural representation of the need to stop in an inhibitory task can predict the development of problem use (i.e. abuse or dependence) in individuals experimenting with stimulants. One hundred and fifty-seven non-dependent occasional stimulant users, aged 18-24, completed a stop-signal task while undergoing functional magnetic resonance imaging. These individuals were prospectively followed for 3 years and evaluated for stimulant use and abuse/dependence symptoms. At follow-up, 38 occasional stimulant users met criteria for a stimulant use disorder (problem stimulant users), while 50 had discontinued use (desisted stimulant users). We found that those individuals who showed greater neural responses associated with Bayesian prediction errors, i.e. the difference between actual and expected need to stop on a given trial, in right medial prefrontal cortex/anterior cingulate cortex, caudate, anterior insula, and thalamus were more likely to exhibit problem use 3 years later. Importantly, these computationally based neural predictors outperformed clinical measures and non-model based neural variables in predicting clinical status. In conclusion, young adults who show exaggerated brain processing underlying whether to 'stop' or to 'go' are more likely to develop stimulant abuse. Thus, Bayesian cognitive models provide both a computational explanation and potential predictive biomarkers of belief processing deficits in individuals at risk for stimulant addiction.