Development of a predictive model for risk stratification of acute kidney injury in patients undergoing cytoreductive surgery with hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy.

Acute kidney injury (AKI) following hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC) is common. Identifying patients at risk could have implications for surgical and anesthetic management. We aimed to develop a predictive model that could predict AKI based on patients' preoperative characteristics and intraperitoneal chemotherapy regimen. We retrospectively gathered data of adult patients undergoing HIPEC at our health system between November 2013 and April 2022. Next, we developed a model predicting postoperative AKI using multivariable logistic regression and calculated the performance of the model (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve [AUC]) via tenfold cross-validation. A total of 412 patients were included, of which 36 (8.7%) developed postoperative AKI. Based on our multivariable logistic regression model, multiple preoperative and intraoperative characteristics were associated with AKI. We included the total intraoperative cisplatin dose, body mass index, male sex, and preoperative hemoglobin level in the final model. The mean area under the receiver operating characteristics curve value was 0.82 (95% confidence interval 0.71-0.93). Our risk model predicted AKI with high accuracy in patients undergoing HIPEC in our institution. The external validity of our model should now be tested in independent and prospective patient cohorts.

Modelos predictivos de bacteriemia en el servicio de urgencias: revisión sistemática / Models to predict bacteremia in the emergency department: a systematic review

Objetivo. La obtención de hemocultivos (HC) se realiza en el 15% de los pacientes atendidos con sospecha de infección en los servicios de urgencias (SU) con una rentabilidad diagnóstica variable (2-20%). La mortalidad a 30 días de estos pacientes con bacteriemia es elevada, doble o triple que el resto con el mismo proceso. Así, encontrar un modelo predictivo de bacteriemia eficaz y aplicable en los SU sería muy importante. Clásicamente, el modelo de Shapiro ha sido la referencia en todo el mundo. El objetivo de esta revisión sistemática (RS) es comparar la capacidad para predecir bacteriemia en los SU de los distintos modelos predictivos publicados desde el año 2008 (fecha de publicación del modelo de Shapiro). Métodos. Se realiza una RS siguiendo la normativa PRISMA en las bases de datos de PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, Lilacs, Cochrane, Epistemonikos, Tripdatabase y ClinicalTrials.gov desde enero de 2008 hasta 31 mayo 2023 sin restricción de idiomas y utilizando una combinación de términos MESH: “Bacteremia/Bacteraemia/Blood Stream Infection”, “Prediction Model/Clinical Prediction Rule/Risk Prediction Model”, “Emergencies/Emergency/Emergency Department” y “Adults”. Se incluyeron estudios de cohortes observacionales (analíticos de rendimiento diagnóstico). Para valorar la calidad del método empleado y el riesgo de sesgos de los artículos incluidos se utilizó la NewcastleOttawa Scale (NOS). No se incluyeron estudios de casos y controles, revisiones narrativas y en otros tipos de artículos. No se realizaron técnicas de metanálisis, pero los resultados se compararon narrativamente. El protocolo de la RS se registró en PROSPERO (CRD42023426327). Resultados. Se identificaron 917 artículos y se analizaron finalmente 20 que cumplían los criterios de inclusión. Los estudios incluidos contienen 33.182 HC procesados con 5.074 bacteriemias (15,3%). Once estudios fueron calificados de calidad alta, 7 moderada y 2 baja... (AU)

Objective. Blood cultures are ordered in emergency departments for 15% of patients with suspected infection. The diagnostic yield varies from 2% to 20%. Thirty-day mortality in patients with bacteremia is high, doubling or tripling the rate in patients with the same infection but without bacteremia. Thus, finding an effective model to predict bacteremia that is applicable in emergency departments is an important goal. Shapiro’s model is the one traditionally used as a reference internationally. The aim of this systematic review was to compare the predictive power of bacteremia risk models published since 2008, when Shapiro’s model first appeared. Methods. We followed the recommendations of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and MetaAnalyses (PRISMA) statement, searching in the following databases for articles published between January 2008 and May 31, 2023: PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, Lilacs, Cochrane, Epistemonikos, Trip Medical Database, and ClinicalTrials.gov. No language restrictions were specified. The search terms were the following Medical Subject Headings: bacteremia/bacteraemia/blood stream infection, prediction model/clinical prediction rule/risk prediction model, emergencies/emergency/emergency department, and adults. Observational cohort studies analyzing diagnostic yield were included; case-control studies, narrative reviews, and other types of articles were excluded. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale was used to score quality and risk of bias in the included studies. The results were compared descriptively, without meta-analysis. The protocol was included in the PROSPERO register (CRD42023426327). Results. Twenty studies out of a total of 917 were found to meet the inclusion criteria. The included studies together analyzed 33 182 blood cultures, which detected 5074 cases of bacteremia (15.3%). Eleven studies were of high quality, 7 of moderate quality, and 2 of low quality... (AU)

Capacity of Generative AI to Interpret Human Emotions From Visual and Textual Data: Pilot Evaluation Study.

BACKGROUND: Mentalization, which is integral to human cognitive processes, pertains to the interpretation of one's own and others' mental states, including emotions, beliefs, and intentions. With the advent of artificial intelligence (AI) and the prominence of large language models in mental health applications, questions persist about their aptitude in emotional comprehension. The prior iteration of the large language model from OpenAI, ChatGPT-3.5, demonstrated an advanced capacity to interpret emotions from textual data, surpassing human benchmarks. Given the introduction of ChatGPT-4, with its enhanced visual processing capabilities, and considering Google Bard's existing visual functionalities, a rigorous assessment of their proficiency in visual mentalizing is warranted. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the research was to critically evaluate the capabilities of ChatGPT-4 and Google Bard with regard to their competence in discerning visual mentalizing indicators as contrasted with their textual-based mentalizing abilities. METHODS: The Reading the Mind in the Eyes Test developed by Baron-Cohen and colleagues was used to assess the models' proficiency in interpreting visual emotional indicators. Simultaneously, the Levels of Emotional Awareness Scale was used to evaluate the large language models' aptitude in textual mentalizing. Collating data from both tests provided a holistic view of the mentalizing capabilities of ChatGPT-4 and Bard. RESULTS: ChatGPT-4, displaying a pronounced ability in emotion recognition, secured scores of 26 and 27 in 2 distinct evaluations, significantly deviating from a random response paradigm (P<.001). These scores align with established benchmarks from the broader human demographic. Notably, ChatGPT-4 exhibited consistent responses, with no discernible biases pertaining to the sex of the model or the nature of the emotion. In contrast, Google Bard's performance aligned with random response patterns, securing scores of 10 and 12 and rendering further detailed analysis redundant. In the domain of textual analysis, both ChatGPT and Bard surpassed established benchmarks from the general population, with their performances being remarkably congruent. CONCLUSIONS: ChatGPT-4 proved its efficacy in the domain of visual mentalizing, aligning closely with human performance standards. Although both models displayed commendable acumen in textual emotion interpretation, Bard's capabilities in visual emotion interpretation necessitate further scrutiny and potential refinement. This study stresses the criticality of ethical AI development for emotional recognition, highlighting the need for inclusive data, collaboration with patients and mental health experts, and stringent governmental oversight to ensure transparency and protect patient privacy.

Predictive deep learning models for cognitive risk using accessible data.

The early detection of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is crucial to preventing the progression of dementia. However, it necessitates that patients voluntarily undergo cognitive function tests, which may be too late if symptoms are only recognized once they become apparent. Recent advances in deep learning have improved model performance, leading to applied research in various predictive problems. Studies attempting to estimate dementia and the risk of MCI based on readily available data are being conducted, with the hope of facilitating the early detection of MCI. The data used for these predictions vary widely, including facial imagery, voice recordings, blood tests, and inertial information during walking. Deep learning models that make predictions based on these data sources have been proposed. This article summarizes recent research efforts to predict the risk of dementia using easily accessible data. As research progresses and more accurate predictions become feasible, simple tests could be incorporated into daily life to monitor one's personal health status and to facilitate an early intervention.

Modelo predictivo del fracaso de la terapia eléctrica en la fibrilación auricular paroxística / Predictive model of electrical therapy failure in paroxysmal atrial fibrillation

Introducción: La fibrilación auricular es la arritmia recurrente más habitual en la práctica clínica. Su prevalencia se multiplica en la población actual y tiene diferentes causas fisiopatológicas que la convierten en una pandemia mundial. Objetivos: Diseñar un modelo predictivo de fracaso de la terapia eléctrica en pacientes con fibrilación auricular paroxística. Métodos: Se realizó un estudio de casos y controles, con 33 casos y 66 controles. Variables predictoras: edad, fracción de eyección ≤ 40 por ciento, volumen de aurícula izquierda ≥ 34 mL/m2. A partir de la regresión logística se obtuvo un modelo en el que fueron incluidos el valor predictivo positivo, valor predictivo negativo, la sensibilidad y especificidad. Resultados: Los factores de riesgo predictores fueron: edad ≥ 55 años (p= 0,013; odds ratio (OR)= 3,58; intervalo de confianza -IC- 95 por ciento: 1,33-9,67); la fracción de eyección del ventrículo izquierdo (FEVI) ≤ 40 por ciento se observó en 20 pacientes (22,7 por ciento) (p= 0,004; OR= 4,45; IC95 por ciento: 1,54-12,8); presión de aurícula izquierda elevada, volumen de aurícula izquierda elevado (p= 0,004; OR= 3,11; IC95 por ciento: 1,24-8,77), según el modelo de regresión logística. Se realizó la validación interna por división de datos; se confirmó que el modelo pronostica bien los que van a tener éxito en el resultado terapéutico. Conclusiones: El modelo predictivo elaborado está compuesto por los predictores edad > 55 años, FEVI; volumen de aurícula izquierda; presenta un buen ajuste y poder discriminante, sobre todo valor predictivo positivo(AU)

Introduction: Atrial fibrillation is the most common recurrent arrhythmia in clinical practice. Its prevalence is multiplying in the current population and has different pathophysiological causes that make it a global pandemic. Objectives: To design a predictive model for failure of electrical therapy in patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation. Methods: A case-control study was carried out with 33 cases, and 66 controls. Predictor variables: age, ejection fraction ≤ 40 percent, left atrial volume ≥ 34 mL/m2. From logistic regression, a model was obtained in which the positive predictive value, negative predictive value, sensitivity and specificity were included. Results: The predictive risk factors were: age ≥ 55 years (p= 0.013; odds ratio (OR)= 3.58; 95 percent confidence interval -CI-: 1.33-9.67); left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤ 40 percent was observed in 20 patients (22.7 percent) (p= 0.004; OR= 4.45; 95 percent CI: 1.54-12.8); elevated left atrial pressure, elevated left atrial volume (p= 0.004; OR= 3.11; 95 percent CI: 1.24-8.77), according to the logistic regression model. Internal validation was carried out by data division; It was confirmed that the model predicts very well those who will be successful in the therapeutic result. Conclusions: The predictive model developed is composed of the predictors age > 55 years, LVEF; left atrial volume; It presents a good fit and discriminating power, especially positive predictive value(AU)

Health-Related Quality of Life Scores and Values as Predictors of Mortality: A Scoping Review.

Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) can be assessed through measures that can be generic or disease specific, encompass several independent scales, or employ holistic assessment (i.e., the derivation of composite scores). HRQoL measures may identify patients with differential risk profiles. However, the usefulness of generic and holistic HRQoL measures in identifying patients at higher risk of death is unclear. The aim of the present study was to undertake a scoping review of generic, holistic assessments of HRQoL as predictors of mortality in general non-patient populations and clinical sub-populations with specified conditions or risk factors in persons 18 years or older. Five databases were searched from 18 June to 29 June 2020 to identify peer-reviewed published articles. The searches were updated in August 2022. Reference lists of included and cited articles were also searched. Of 2552 articles screened, 110 met criteria for inclusion. Over one-third of studies were from North America. Most studies pertained to sub-populations with specified conditions and/or risk factors, almost a quarter for people with cardiovascular diseases. There were no studies pertaining to people with mental health conditions. Nearly three-quarters of the studies used a RAND Corporation QoL instrument, predominantly the SF-36, and nearly a quarter, a utility instrument, predominantly the EQ-5D. HRQoL was associated with mortality in 67 of 72 univariate analyses (92%) and 100 of 109 multivariate analyses (92%). HRQoL was found to be associated with mortality in the general population and clinical sub-populations with physical health conditions. Whether this relationship holds in people with mental health conditions is not known. HRQoL assessment may be useful for screening and/or monitoring purposes to understand how people perceive their health and well-being and as an indicator of mortality risk, encouraging better-quality and timely patient care to support and maximize what may be a patient's only modifiable outcome.

Seasonal and interannual responses of blue-green algal taxa and chlorophyll to a monsoon climate, flow regimes, and N:P ratios in a temperate drinking-water reservoir.

Blooms of blue-green algae (BGA) threaten drinking water safety and ecosystems worldwide. Understanding mechanisms and driving factors that promote BGA proliferation is crucial for effective freshwater management. This study tested the response of BGA growth to environmental variations driven by nutrients (N and P), N:P ratios, and flow regime depending on the influence of the Asian monsoon intensity and identified the critical regulatory factors in a temperate drinking-water reservoir, using weekly interval samplings collected during 2017-2022. The hydrodynamic and underwater light conditions experienced significant changes in summers due to high inflows and outflows associated with intense rainfalls, and these conditions strongly influenced the proliferation of BGA and total phytoplankton biomass (as estimated by chlorophyll-a [CHL-a]) during summer monsoons. However, the intense monsoon resulted in the post-monsoon blooms of BGA. The monsoon-induced phosphorus enrichment, facilitated through soil washing and runoff, was crucial in promoting phytoplankton blooms in early post-monsoon (September). Thus, the monomodal phytoplankton peak was evident in the system, compared to the bimodal peaks in North American and European lakes. Strong water column stability in the weak monsoon years depressed phytoplankton growth and BGA, suggesting the importance of the intensity of monsoon. The low N:P ratios and longer water residence time increased BGA abundance. The predictive model of BGA abundance accounted for the variations largely (Mallows' Cp = 0.39, adjusted R2 = 0.55, p < 0.001) by dissolved phosphorus, N:P ratios, CHL-a, and inflow volume. Overall, this study suggests that monsoon intensity was the key triggering factor regulating the interannual BGA variations and facilitated the post-monsoon blooms through increased nutrient availability.

Forecasting levels of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D based on dietary intake, lifestyle and personal determinants in a sample of Southern Europeans.

Vitamin D is an essential nutrient to be consumed in the habitual dietary intake, whose deficiency is associated with various disturbances. This study represents a validation of vitamin D status estimation using a semi-quantitative FFQ, together with data from additional physical activity and lifestyle questionnaires. This information was combined to forecast the serum vitamin D status. Different statistical methods were applied to estimate the vitamin D status using predictors based on diet and lifestyle. Serum vitamin D was predicted using linear regression (with leave-one-out cross-validation) and random forest models. Intraclass correlation coefficients, Lin's agreement coefficients, Bland-Altman plots and other methods were used to assess the accuracy of the predicted v. observed serum values. Data were collected in Spain. A total of 220 healthy volunteers aged between 18 and 78 years were included in this study. They completed validated questionnaires and agreed to provide blood samples to measure serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) levels. The common final predictors in both models were age, sex, sunlight exposure, vitamin D dietary intake (as assessed by the FFQ), BMI, time spent walking, physical activity and skin reaction after sun exposure. The intraclass correlation coefficient for the prediction was 0·60 (95 % CI: 0·52, 0·67; P < 0·001) using the random forest model. The magnitude of the correlation was moderate, which means that our estimation could be useful in future epidemiological studies to establish a link between the predicted 25(OH)D values and the occurrence of several clinical outcomes in larger cohorts.

Predicting Unreported Micronutrients From Food Labels: Machine Learning Approach.

BACKGROUND: Micronutrient deficiencies represent a major global health issue, with over 2 billion individuals experiencing deficiencies in essential vitamins and minerals. Food labels provide consumers with information regarding the nutritional content of food items and have been identified as a potential tool for improving diets. However, due to governmental regulations and the physical limitations of the labels, food labels often lack comprehensive information about the vitamins and minerals present in foods. As a result, information about most of the micronutrients is absent from existing food labels. OBJECTIVE: This paper aims to examine the possibility of using machine learning algorithms to predict unreported micronutrients such as vitamin A (retinol), vitamin C, vitamin B1 (thiamin), vitamin B2 (riboflavin), vitamin B3 (niacin), vitamin B6, vitamin B12, vitamin E (alpha-tocopherol), vitamin K, and minerals such as magnesium, zinc, phosphorus, selenium, manganese, and copper from nutrition information provided on existing food labels. If unreported micronutrients can be predicted with acceptable accuracies from existing food labels using machine learning predictive models, such models can be integrated into mobile apps to provide consumers with additional micronutrient information about foods and help them make more informed diet decisions. METHODS: Data from the Food and Nutrient Database for Dietary Studies (FNDDS) data set, representing a total of 5624 foods, were used to train a diverse set of machine learning classification and regression algorithms to predict unreported vitamins and minerals from existing food label data. For each model, hyperparameters were adjusted, and the models were evaluated using repeated cross-validation to ensure that the reported results were not subject to overfitting. RESULTS: According to the results, while predicting the exact quantity of vitamins and minerals is shown to be challenging, with regression R2 varying in a wide range from 0.28 (for magnesium) to 0.92 (for manganese), the classification models can accurately predict the category ("low," "medium," or "high") level of all minerals and vitamins with accuracies exceeding 0.80. The highest classification accuracies for specific micronutrients are achieved for vitamin B12 (0.94) and phosphorus (0.94), while the lowest are for vitamin E (0.81) and selenium (0.83). CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the feasibility of predicting unreported micronutrients from existing food labels using machine learning algorithms. The results show that the approach has the potential to significantly improve consumer knowledge about the micronutrient content of the foods they consume. Integrating these predictive models into mobile apps can enhance their accessibility and engagement with consumers. The implications of this research for public health are noteworthy, underscoring the potential of technology to augment consumers' understanding of the micronutrient content of their diets while also facilitating the tracking of food intake and providing personalized recommendations based on the micronutrient content and individual preferences.

SPUR: A Patient-Reported Medication Adherence Model as a Predictor of Admission and Early Readmission in Patients Living with Type 2 Diabetes.

Purpose: Poor medication adherence (MA) is linked to an increased likelihood of hospital admission. Early interventions to address MA may reduce this risk and associated health-care costs. This study aimed to evaluate a holistic Patient Reported Outcome Measure (PROM) of MA, known as SPUR, as a predictor of general admission and early readmission in patients living with Type 2 Diabetes. Patients and Methods: An observational study design was used to assess data collected over a 12-month period including 6-month retrospective and 6-month prospective monitoring of the number of admissions and early readmissions (admissions occurring within 30 days of discharge) across the cohort. Patients (n = 200) were recruited from a large South London NHS Trust. Covariates of interest included: age, ethnicity, gender, level of education, income, the number of medicines and medical conditions, and a Covid-19 diagnosis. A Poisson or negative binomial model was employed for count outcomes, with the exponentiated coefficient indicating incident ratios (IR) [95% CI]. For binary outcomes (Coefficient, [95% CI]), a logistic regression model was developed. Results: Higher SPUR scores (increased adherence) were significantly associated with a lower number of admissions (IR = 0.98, [0.96, 1.00]). The number of medical conditions (IR = 1.07, [1.01, 1.13]), age ≥80 years (IR = 5.18, [1.01, 26.55]), a positive Covid-19 diagnosis during follow-up (IR = 1.83, [1.11, 3.02]) and GCSE education (IR = 2.11, [1.15,3.87]) were factors associated with a greater risk of admission. When modelled as a binary variable, only the SPUR score (-0.051, [-0.094, -0.007]) was significantly predictive of an early readmission, with patients reporting higher SPUR scores being less likely to experience an early readmission. Conclusion: Higher levels of MA, as determined by SPUR, were significantly associated with a lower risk of general admissions and early readmissions among patients living with Type 2 Diabetes.

A prostate biopsy risk calculator based on MRI: development and comparison of the Prospective Loyola University multiparametric MRI (PLUM) and Prostate Biopsy Collaborative Group (PBCG) risk calculators.

OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a prostate cancer (PCa) risk calculator (RC) incorporating multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) and to compare its performance with that of the Prostate Biopsy Collaborative Group (PBCG) RC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Men without a PCa diagnosis receiving mpMRI before biopsy in the Prospective Loyola University mpMRI (PLUM) Prostate Biopsy Cohort (2015-2020) were included. Data from a separate institution were used for external validation. The primary outcome was diagnosis of no cancer, grade group (GG)1 PCa, and clinically significant (cs)PCa (≥GG2). Binary logistic regression was used to explore standard clinical and mpMRI variables (prostate volume, Prostate Imaging-Reporting Data System [PI-RADS] version 2.0 lesions) with the final PLUM RC, based on a multinomial logistic regression model. Receiver-operating characteristic curve, calibration curves, and decision-curve analysis were evaluated in the training and validation cohorts. RESULTS: A total of 1010 patients were included for development (N = 674 training [47.8% PCa, 30.9% csPCa], N = 336 internal validation) and 371 for external validation. The PLUM RC outperformed the PBCG RC in the training (area under the curve [AUC] 85.9% vs 66.0%; P < 0.001), internal validation (AUC 88.2% vs 67.8%; P < 0.001) and external validation (AUC 83.9% vs 69.4%; P < 0.001) cohorts for csPCa detection. The PBCG RC was prone to overprediction while the PLUM RC was well calibrated. At a threshold probability of 15%, the PLUM RC vs the PBCG RC could avoid 13.8 vs 2.7 biopsies per 100 patients without missing any csPCa. At a cost level of missing 7.5% of csPCa, the PLUM RC could have avoided 41.0% (566/1381) of biopsies compared to 19.1% (264/1381) for the PBCG RC. The PLUM RC compared favourably with the Stanford Prostate Cancer Calculator (SPCC; AUC 84.1% vs 81.1%; P = 0.002) and the MRI-European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) RC (AUC 84.5% vs 82.6%; P = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The mpMRI-based PLUM RC significantly outperformed the PBCG RC and compared favourably with other mpMRI-based RCs. A large proportion of biopsies could be avoided using the PLUM RC in shared decision making while maintaining optimal detection of csPCa.

Quantitative fusion omics reveals that refrigeration drives methionine degradation through perturbing 5-methyltetrahydropteroyltriglutamate-homocysteine activity.

Postharvest senescence and quality deterioration of fresh tea leaves occurred due to the limitation of processing capacity. Refrigerated storage prolongs the shelf life of fresh tea. In this study, quantitative fusion omics delineated the translational landscape of metabolites and proteins in time-series (0-12 days) refrigerated tea by UHPLC-Q-Orbitrap HRMS. Accurate quantification results showed the content of amino acids, especially l-theanine, decreased with the lengthening of the storage duration (15.57 mg g-1 to 7.65 mg g-1) driven by theanine synthetase. Downregulation of enzyme 5-methyltetrahydropteroyltriglutamate-homocysteine methyltransferase expression led to methionine degradation (6.29 µg g-1 to 1.78 µg g-1). Refrigerated storage inhibited serine carboxypeptidase-like acyltransferases activity (59.49 % reduction in 12 days) and induced the polymerization of epicatechin and epigallocatechin and generation of procyanidin dimer and δ-type dehydrodicatechin, causing the manifestation of color deterioration. A predictive model incorporating zero-order reaction and Arrhenius equation was constructed to forecast the storage time of green tea.

Construction and Validation of A Predictive Model Including TCM Pathogenic Syndrome for Short-term Efficacy of PD-1 Inhibitors in Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer / 肿瘤防治研究

Objective To evaluate predictive factors affecting the short-term efficacy of PD-1 inhibitors in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and to construct a prediction model. Methods From October 2019 to November 2021, 221 patients with advanced NSCLC who met the inclusion criteria and were treated with PD-1 inhibitors were prospectively enrolled. Patients who were enrolled before May 1st, 2021 were included inthe modeling group (n=149), whereas those who enrolled thereafter were included in the validation group (n=72). The general clinical data of patients, information of the four TCM diagnoses were collected, and TCM syndrome elements were identified. R software version 4.0.4 was used in constructing a nomogram clinical prediction model of objective response rate. The predictive ability and discrimination of the model were evaluated and externally validated by using a validation group. Results After two to four cycles of PD-1 inhibitor therapy in 221 patients, the overall objective response rate was 44.80%. Multivariate logistic regression analysis of the modeling group showed that the TPS score (OR=0.261, P=0.001), number of treatment lines (OR=3.749, P=0.002), treatment mode (OR=2.796, P=0.019), qi deficiency disease syndrome elements (OR=2.296, P=0.043), and syndrome elements of yin deficiency disease (OR=3.228, P=0.005) were the independent predictors of the short-term efficacy of PD-1 inhibitors. Based on the above five independent predictors, a nomogram prediction model for the short-term efficacy of PD-1 inhibitors was constructed. The AUC values of the modeling and validation groups were 0.8317 and 0.7535, respectively. The calibration curves of the two groups showed good agreement between the predicted and true values. The mean absolute errors were 0.053 and 0.039, indicating that the model has good predictive performance. Conclusion The nomogram model constructed on the basis of the syndrome elements of Qi-deficiency disease and Yin-deficiency syndrome of TCM, as well as TPS score, number of treatment lines and treatment mode, is a stable and effective tool for predicting the short-term efficacy of PD-1 inhibitors in advanced non-small cell lung cancer.

Prediction Model of Treatment Effect of Anlotinib on Extensive-stage Small Cell Lung Cancer Based on Combination of Disease and Syndrome Information / 肿瘤防治研究

Objective To construct a nomogram prediction model for the treatment effect of anlotinib with the participation of traditional Chinese medicine syndrome elements on the patients with extensive-stage small cell lung cancer (ES-SCLC) who previously received multiple lines of chemotherapy. Methods The clinical data of 127 patients with ES-SCLC who received at least two cycles of anlotinib treatment were retrospectively studied. Kaplan-Meier method was used to analyze the relationship between each factor and the overall survival time. Cox regression analysis was applied to screen the independent influencing factors of the prognosis of patients with ES-SCLC. R language was employed to build a nomogram prediction model, C-index was used to evaluate the model, and calibration curve was adopted to verify the accuracy of the model. Results Age, PS score, brain metastases, qi deficiency syndrome, yin deficiency syndrome, and blood stasis syndrome were related risk factors for ES-SCLC treated with anlotinib. PS score, brain metastasis, and blood stasis syndrome were independent prognostic factors. On the basis of these three independent influencing factors, a nomogram model was established to predict the prognosis of patients with ES-SCLC treated with anlotinib. The predicted risk was close to the actual risk, showing a high degree of coincidence. Conclusion The nomogram model established with PS score, blood stasis syndrome elements, and brain metastasis as independent factors can predict the prognosis of patients with ES-SCLC receiving second- and third-line treatment of anlotinib.

Establishment and evaluation of predictive models of platelet transfusion effect in multi-center tumor patients / 中国输血杂志

【Objective】 To study the platelet transfusion predictive models in tumor patients and evaluate its application effect. 【Methods】 A retrospective study was conducted on 944 tumor patients, including 533 males and 411 females who received platelet transfusion in the Affiliated Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine of Xinjiang Medical University, the Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University and Kailuan General Hospital from August 2022 to January 2023. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to establish the platelet transfusion predictive models, and Medcalc15.8 software was used to draw the receiver operating curve (ROC) to evaluate the application effect of the prediction model. The actual application effect of models was verified through 162 female clinical cases and 172 male clinical cases. 【Results】 The incidence of platelet transfusion refractoriness in tumor patients was 28.9% (273/944), with 33.2% (177/533) in males, significantly higher than that in females [23.4% (96/411)] (P<0.05). Platelet transfusion predictive models: Y1 (female) =-8.546+ (0.581×number of pregnancies) + (0.964×number of inpatient transfusion bags) + number of previous platelet transfusion bags (5-9 bags: 1.259, ≥20 bags: 1.959) + clinical diagnosis (lymphoma: 2.562, leukemia: 3.214); Y2 (male) =-7.600+ (1.150×inpatient transfusion bags) + previous platelet transfusion bags (10-19 bags: 1.015, ≥20 bags: 0.979) + clinical diagnosis (lymphoma: 1.81, leukemia: 3.208, liver cancer: 1.714). Application effect evaluation: The AUC (area under the curve), cut-off point, corresponding sensitivity and specificity of female and male platelet transfusion effect prediction models were 0.868, -0.354, 68.75%, 89.84% and 0.854, -0.942, 81.36%, 77.53%, respectively. Actual application results showed that the sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of female and male model were 89.47%, 92.74%, 91.98% and 83.72%, 91.47%, 89.53%, respectively. 【Conclusion】 There is high incidence of platelet transfusion refractoriness in tumor patients, and the predictive model has good prediction effect on platelet transfusion refractoriness in tumor patients, which can provide reliable basis for accurate platelet transfusion in tumor patients.

The development and validation of a predictive model for neonatal phototherapy outcome using admission indicators.

Delayed exchange transfusion therapy (ETT) after phototherapy failure for newborns with severe hyperbilirubinemia could lead to serious complications such as bilirubin encephalopathy (BE). In this current manuscript we developed and validated a model using admission data for early prediction of phototherapy failure. We retrospectively examined the medical records of 292 newborns with severe hyperbilirubinemia as the training cohort and another 52 neonates as the validation cohort. Logistic regression modeling was employed to create a predictive model with seven significant admission indicators, i.e., age, past medical history, presence of hemolysis, hemoglobin, neutrophil proportion, albumin (ALB), and total serum bilirubin (TSB). To validate the model, two other models with conventional indicators were created, one incorporating the admission indicators and phototherapy failure outcome and the other using TSB decrease after phototherapy failure as a variable and phototherapy outcome as an outcome indicator. The area under the curve (AUC) of the predictive model was 0.958 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.924-0.993] and 0.961 (95% CI: 0.914-1.000) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Compared with the conventional models, the new model had better predictive power and greater value for clinical decision-making by providing a possibly earlier and more accurate prediction of phototherapy failure. More rapid clinical decision-making and interventions may potentially minimize occurrence of serious complications of severe neonatal hyperbilirubinemia.

Rheological Properties and Stability of Thickeners for Clinical Use.

The adaptation of liquids for patients with dysphagia requires precision and individualization in the viscosities used. We describe the variations of viscosity in water at different concentrations and evolution over time of the three compositions of commercial thickeners that are on the market (starch, starch with gums, and gum). By increasing the concentration in water, the viscosity of gum-based thickeners increases linearly, but it did not reach pudding texture, whereas the viscosity of the starch-based thickeners (alone or mixed with gums) rapidly reaches very thick textures. We modeled the viscosity at different concentrations of the four thickeners using regression analysis (R2 > 0.9). We analyzed viscosity changes after 6 h of preparation. The viscosity of gum-based thickeners increased by a maximum of 6.5% after 6 h of preparation, while starch-based thickeners increased by up to 43%. These findings are important for correct handling and prescription. Gum-based thickeners have a predictable linear behavior with the formula we present, reaching nectar and honey-like textures with less quantity of thickener, and are stable over time. In contrast, starch thickeners have an exponential behavior which is difficult to handle, they reach pudding-like viscosity, and are not stable over time.

Identification of hepatoprotective traditional Chinese medicines based on the structure-activity relationship, molecular network, and machine learning techniques.

The efforts focused on discovering potential hepatoprotective drugs are critical for relieving the burdens caused by liver diseases. Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) is an important resource for discovering hepatoprotective agents. Currently, there are hundreds of hepatoprotective products derived from TCM available in the literature, providing crucial clues to discover novel potential hepatoprotectants from TCMs based on predictive research. In the current study, a large-scale dataset focused on TCM-induced hepatoprotection was established, including 676 hepatoprotective ingredients and 205 hepatoprotective TCMs. Then, a comprehensive analysis based on the structure-activity relationship, molecular network, and machine learning techniques was performed at molecular and holistic TCM levels, respectively. As a result, we developed an in silico model for predicting the hepatoprotective activity of ingredients derived from TCMs, in which the accuracy exceeded 85%. In addition, we originally proposed a material basis and a drug property-based approach to identify potential hepatoprotective TCMs. Consequently, a total of 12 TCMs were predicted to hold potential hepatoprotective activity, nine of which have been proven to be beneficial to the liver in previous publications. The high rate of consistency between our predictive results and the literature reports demonstrated that our methods were technically sound and reliable. In summary, systematical predictive research focused on the hepatoprotection of TCM was conducted in this work, which would not only assist screening of potential hepatoprotectants from TCMs but also provide a novel research mode for discovering the potential activities of TCMs.

Hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy and sequential ablation treatment in large hepatocellular carcinoma.

AIM: To investigate the individualized survival benefit of hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy (HAIC) and sequential ablation treatment in large hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. METHODS: Between February 2016 and December 2020, a total of 228 HCC patients (diameter > 5 cm) who underwent HAIC alone (HAIC group, n = 135) or HAIC and sequential ablation (HAIC-ablation group, n = 93) treatment were reviewed. We applied the inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) to adjust for potential bias of two treatment groups. The overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were compared with Kaplan-Meier curves. The Cox regression model was used to identify independent prognostic factors. And a prediction nomogram based on these independent prognostic factors was built, aiming to make probabilistic survival predictions and estimate personalized ablation benefits. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 17.9 months, HCC patients in the HAIC-ablation group have longer significantly OS and PFS than those in the HAIC alone group (median OS: 22.2 months vs. 14.5 months; median PFS: 8.5 months vs. 4.6 months; both, p < 0.001). The IPTW-adjusted analysis revealed similar findings (both, p < 0.001). Tumor size, tumor number, and treatment modality were identified as independent prognostic factors for OS. The nomogram based on these factors showed favorable discrimination and well calibration. CONCLUSIONS: HAIC and sequential ablation provided significant survival benefits in patients with large HCC. The nomogram could help predict individual survival probabilities and estimate personalized sequential ablation benefits.

How Is the Lung Cancer Incidence Rate Associated with Environmental Risks? Machine-Learning-Based Modeling and Benchmarking.

The lung cancer threat has become a critical issue for public health. Research has been devoted to its clinical study but only a few studies have addressed the issue from a holistic perspective that included social, economic, and environmental dimensions. Therefore, in this study, risk factors or features, such as air pollution, tobacco use, socioeconomic status, employment status, marital status, and environment, were comprehensively considered when constructing a predictive model. These risk factors were analyzed and selected using stepwise regression and the variance inflation factor to eliminate the possibility of multicollinearity. To build efficient and informative prediction models of lung cancer incidence rates, several machine learning algorithms with cross-validation were adopted, namely, linear regression, support vector regression, random forest, K-nearest neighbor, and cubist model tree. A case study in Taiwan showed that the cubist model tree with feature selection was the best model with an RMSE of 3.310 and an R-squared of 0.960. Through these predictive models, we also found that apart from smoking, the average NO2 concentration, employment percentage, and number of factories were also important factors that had significant impacts on the incidence of lung cancer. In addition, the random forest model without feature selection and with feature selection could support the interpretation of the most contributing variables. The predictive model proposed in the present study can help to precisely analyze and estimate lung cancer incidence rates so that effective preventative measures can be developed. Furthermore, the risk factors involved in the predictive model can help with the future analysis of lung cancer incidence rates from a holistic perspective.