The Impact of the Declaration of the State of Emergency on the Spread of COVID-19: A Modeling Analysis.

When encountering the outbreak and early spreading of COVID-19, the Government of Japan imposed gradually upgraded restriction policies and declared the state of emergency in April 2020 for the first time. To evaluate the efficacy of the countering strategies in different periods, we constructed a SEIADR (susceptible-exposed-infected-asymptomatic-documented-recovered) model to simulate the cases and determined corresponding spreading coefficients. The effective reproduction number R t was obtained to evaluate the measures controlling the COVID-19 conducted by the Government of Japan during different stages. It was found that the strict containing strategies during the state of emergency period drastically inhibit the COVID-19 trend. R t was decreased to 1.1123 and 0.8911 in stages 4 and 5 (a state of emergency in April and May 2020) from 3.5736, 2.0126, 3.0672 in the previous three stages when the containing strategies were weak. The state of emergency was declared again in view of the second wave of massive infections in January 2021. We estimated the cumulative infected cases and additional days to contain the COVID-19 transmission for the second state of emergency using this model. R t was 1.028 which illustrated that the strategies were less effective than the previous state of emergency. Finally, the overall infected population was predicted using combined isolation and testing intensity; the effectiveness and the expected peak time were evaluated. If using the optimized control strategies in the current stage, the spread of COVID-19 in Japan could be controlled within 30 days. The total confirmed cases should reduce to less than 4.2 × 105 by April 2021. This model study suggested stricter isolating measures may be required to shorten the period of the state of emergency.

Transmission patterns of COVID-19 in the mainland of China and the efficacy of different control strategies: a data- and model-driven study.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has seriously endangered the health and lives of Chinese people. In this study, we predicted the COVID-19 epidemic trend and estimated the efficacy of several intervention strategies in the mainland of China. METHODS: According to the COVID-19 epidemic status, we constructed a compartmental model. Based on reported data from the National Health Commission of People's Republic of China during January 10-February 17, 2020, we estimated the model parameters. We then predicted the epidemic trend and transmission risk of COVID-19. Using a sensitivity analysis method, we estimated the efficacy of several intervention strategies. RESULTS: The cumulative number of confirmed cases in the mainland of China will be 86 763 (95% CI: 86 067-87 460) on May 2, 2020. Up until March 15, 2020, the case fatality rate increased to 6.42% (95% CI: 6.16-6.68%). On February 23, 2020, the existing confirmed cases reached its peak, with 60 890 cases (95% CI: 60 350-61 431). On January 23, 2020, the effective reproduction number was 2.620 (95% CI: 2.567-2.676) and had dropped below 1.0 since February 5, 2020. Due to governmental intervention, the total number of confirmed cases was reduced by 99.85% on May 2, 2020. Had the isolation been relaxed from February 24, 2020, there might have been a second peak of infection. However, relaxing the isolation after March 16, 2020 greatly reduced the number of existing confirmed cases and deaths. The total number of confirmed cases and deaths would increase by 8.72 and 9.44%, respectively, due to a 1-day delayed diagnosis in non-isolated infected patients. Moreover, if the coverage of close contact tracing was increased to 100%, the cumulative number of confirmed cases would be decreased by 88.26% on May 2, 2020. CONCLUSIONS: The quarantine measures adopted by the Chinese government since January 23, 2020 were necessary and effective. Postponing the relaxation of isolation, early diagnosis, patient isolation, broad close-contact tracing, and strict monitoring of infected persons could effectively control the COVID-19 epidemic. April 1, 2020 would be a reasonable date to lift quarantine in Hubei and Wuhan.

Hepatitis c and human rights: comparison of legal experience of Ukraine and Georgia.

A comparative legal research of human rights provision in Ukraine and Georgia, in the aspect of combating viral HCV, was conducted. Ukrainian advocacy experience and Georgian strategic litigation experience with regard to human rights and HCV was analyzed. Key international instruments, which lay the conceptual foundations as well as outline the measures, which are directed at human rights in patient care provision and fighting viral hepatitis, were elucidated. Attention was paid to the Global health sector strategy. Viral hepatitis, 2016 - 2021 [1], which, for the first time, defined a global strategy on fighting viral hepatitis, in particular HCV and envisaged the advocacy vectors. The frames of interaction of the human rights in patient care concept and public health, which consists in realization of certain human rights were elucidated and the necessity to embody the human rights in patient care concept into the state policy in the field of public health was determined. It was found out that a common international problem in combating HCV is a deficiency of financial resources, which are necessary for effective fighting the epidemics and guarantee equal access to treatment for every person. The international community outlined five most important spheres, which require investments and will catalyze the measures, which need to be taken in order to fight hepatitis. Analysis of the Ukrainian experience was focused on the issue of donated blood safety and successful advocacy campaigns, which were carried out in order to promote the adoption of programs on prophylactics, diagnostics and treatment of HCV both on national and regional levels. Examples of ensuring the rights of the marginalized groups during HCV treatment, in particular of the people who inject drugs, people living with HIV, participants of the antiterrorist operation were provided. Interesting and important is the experience of Georgia concerning human rights protection in the ECtHR, which has a legal effect for other countries which ratified the Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms, for instance for Ukraine, where the EctHR judgments are recognized as a source of law.

[Vaccination ethics: report on a workshop at the Ruher-Universität Bochum]. / Impfethik: Bericht über eine Arbeitstagung an der Ruhr-Universität Bochum.

Important issues in vaccination ethics are: the right for equal access to basic health care, self determination and solidarity. National recommendations are the basis for equal access to prevention of severe infectious diseases by vaccination allowing for provision basic health care for all. Since the effect of vaccination programmes depends heavily on high vaccination rates solidarity with respect to getting vaccinated, despite small but not deniable risks for vaccination side effects is mandatory. Research challenges in vaccination ethics pertain to paternalism, individualism, solidarity and definition of basic health care with respect to vaccine preventable disease.

[What changes were introduced by the new law concerning infectious diseases for patients with tuberculosis?]. / Jakie zmiany wprowadzila nowelizacja ustawy o chorobach zakaznych dla chorych na gruzlice?

On July 2012, the act on preventing and counteracting infections and infectious diseases in humans was amended. Many dchanges concemrning duties of physicians looking after patients with tuberculosis were proposed. Very important is the requirement of written certification by patients that they were notified by physician of the obligation of antituberculous treatment. It is also essential that the national sanitary inspector be notified as to which health-care institution the patient with tuberculosis was referred to for treatment, and also about an evasion of antituberculous therapy by the patient. Many paragraphs concernng the control of infectious diseases were formulated more precisely.

[Experiences with outbreaks of nosocomial infections]. / Erfahrungen aus dem Ausbruchmanagement bei nosokomialen Infektionen.

Ten years after the publication of the recommendation: "Outbreak management and structural proceedings in case of cumulative occurrence of nosocomial infections" of the federal commission of hospital hygiene, these recommendations are now being re-evaluated. To date, the recommendations have proven valid and have maintained their significance for an effective management. However, besides new hygienic-microbiological methods and an increased sensitivity of the perception of nosocomial outbreaks by the public, by politicians and by the press, it is necessary to consider new issues in this field. Outbreaks are tragic events placing an extraordinary burden on all persons involved, which can have significant consequences. Therefore, it is necessary to ensure prompt outbreak management by experienced professionals who must combine a systematic on-site inspection, hygienic-microbiological investigation and typing methods used with epidemiological approaches. To assure these requirements, the support of independent reference centres such as universal hygiene institutes should be guaranteed. Politicians should be involved only after a scientific evaluation of the details of the outbreak has been made. A national documentation centre, e.g. at the Robert Koch Institute, should be established, thereby making experiences with outbreaks widely available.

The production of social discourse on Hansen' disease and health education materials in Brazil: a skin patch as something harmless or a serious disease?

AIMS: Hansen's disease is endemic in Brazil and government control programmes promote publicity campaigns to increase the detection of new cases through the production and distribution of educative material. OBJECTIVES: This study analyses a set of 276 educational materials produced by governmental and non-governmental organisations that work to control Hansen's disease in Brazil. It describes the content of the materials and the way the issues were approached. DESIGN: It is a qualitative study that adopts the theoretical and methodological framework of the semiology of social discourse. RESULTS: Analysis reveals that the relations between the enunciator and recipient of the materials are asymmetrical as a result of the technical and educational language employed. Biomedical information forms the basis for social representations an practices of Hansen's disease, as opposed to historical collective knowledge of 'leprosy'. The prioritised topics are: signs and symptoms of the disease, treatment stigma, cure and surveillance. CONCLUSIONS: The institutionalisation of public education on Hansen's disease in Brazil was not limited simply to the change of terminology from 'leprosy' to 'Hansen's disease,' but was shaped also by new educational practices. It is recommended that the evaluation and production of new materials be incorporated into the set of activities already carried out in health centres so as to expand the discussion on content, language and the best way to address the disease in the materials.

Sahel, savana, riverine and urban malaria in West Africa: Similar control policies with different outcomes.

The study sites for the West African ICEMR are in three countries (The Gambia, Senegal, Mali) and are located within 750 km of each other. In addition, the National Malaria Control Programmes of these countries have virtually identical policies: (1) Artemisinin Combination Therapies (ACTs) for the treatment of symptomatic Plasmodium falciparum infection, (2) Long-Lasting Insecticide-treated bed Nets (LLINs) to reduce the Entomololgic Inoculation Rate (EIR), and (3) sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine for the Intermittent Preventive Treatment of malaria during pregnancy (IPTp). However, the prevalence of P. falciparum malaria and the status of malaria control vary markedly across the four sites with differences in the duration of the transmission season (from 4-5 to 10-11 months), the intensity of transmission (with EIRs from unmeasurably low to 4-5 per person per month), multiplicity of infection (from a mean of 1.0 to means of 2-5) and the status of malaria control (from areas which have virtually no control to areas that are at the threshold of malaria elimination). The most important priority is the need to obtain comparable data on the population-based prevalence, incidence and transmission of malaria before new candidate interventions or combinations of interventions are introduced for malaria control.

Improving malaria control in West Africa: interruption of transmission as a paradigm shift.

With the paradigm shift from the reduction of morbidity and mortality to the interruption of transmission, the focus of malaria control broadens from symptomatic infections in children ≤5 years of age to include asymptomatic infections in older children and adults. In addition, as control efforts intensify and the number of interventions increases, there will be decreases in prevalence, incidence and transmission with additional decreases in morbidity and mortality. Expected secondary consequences of these changes include upward shifts in the peak ages for infection (parasitemia) and disease, increases in the ages for acquisition of antiparasite humoral and cellular immune responses and increases in false-negative blood smears and rapid diagnostic tests. Strategies to monitor these changes must include: (1) studies of the entire population (that are not restricted to children ≤5 or ≤10 years of age), (2) study sites in both cities and rural areas (because of increasing urbanization across sub-Saharan Africa) and (3) innovative strategies for surveillance as the prevalence of infection decreases and the frequency of false-negative smears and rapid diagnostic tests increases.

Malaria control in Malawi: current status and directions for the future.

The last decade has seen an increase in investment and concerted efforts by the Malawi Ministry of Health and partners to control malaria disease. This report summarizes what is known about the burden of malaria and the strategies being implemented to control it in Malawi. Over the past 5 years, roll out of treatment and prevention efforts have been successful in the country, as demonstrated by increased use of insecticide treated nets, improved access to prompt and effective treatment and the initiation of pilot studies of indoor residual spraying. However, unlike other countries in the region, the recent data have not suggested a decrease in the burden of disease. We describe the environment in which the activities of Malawi's International Center for Excellence in Malaria Research (ICEMR) will be carried out and provide the rationale for the clinical, entomological and molecular studies. Our approach is to establish consistent, stainable data collection systems that are embedded within the public health sector. Through standardized and long-term studies of hosts, parasites and vectors, we hope to contribute to assessment of malaria disease burden, the appropriate application of interventions and policies and provide both the data collection and the health care infrastructure to ultimately eliminate the disease.

Certification of TB culture and drug susceptibility testing laboratories through the Revised National Tuberculosis Control Programme (RNTCP).

The RNTCP is implementing the Programmatic Management of Drug Resistant Tuberculosis (PMDT) for detecting and treating drug resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB). Diagnostic services for DR-TB is provided through a network of RNTCP certified Culture and Drug Susceptibility Testing (C&DST) laboratories.This paper describes about the process involved in certification of C&DST laboratories for different technologies used in RNTCP.

Determinants of childhood tuberculosis--a case control study among children registered under revised National Tuberculosis Control Programme in a district of South India.

AIM: To study the determinants of Tuberculosis (TB) in children between the age group of 0-14 years receiving treatment under Revised National TB Control Programme (RNTCP). METHODS: A case (registered under RNTCP) control study was undertaken with 41 cases and 82 controls. RESULTS: Factors found to have significance according to binary logistic regression were low-birth weight (LBW) [Odd's ratio = 3.56],Malnutrition [Odd's ratio = 3.96], Passive smoking [Odd's ratio=6.28] and exposure to fire-wood smoke [Odd's ratio = 6.91]. CONCLUSION: LBW, malnutrition, passive smoking and fire-wood smoke are the risk factors to be addressed to prevent pediatric TB.

International Health Regulations: a major paradigm shift from 1969 to 2005.

The International Health Regulations (IHR 1969), replaced by IHR 2005 had been adopted by the World Health Assembly on 23 May 2005 and came into force on 15 June 2007. IHR 2005 are a legally binding agreement among World Health Organisation (WHO) member states and other states that have agreed to be bound by them. New revision was necessitated by concerns about increasing global health threats and the need to respond with more effective surveillance and control practices. The limitations of IHR 1969, which led to their revision, related to their narrow scope, their dependence on official country notifications, and their lack of a formal internationally coordinated mechanism to contain international disease spread. The IHR 2005, which is firmly based on practical experiences, has broaden the scope of IHR 1969 to cover existing, new and re-emerging diseases, including emergencies caused by non-infectious disease agents.

The right to health of prisoners in international human rights law.

This paper explores the health rights of prisoners as defined in international law, and the mechanisms that have been used to ensure the rights of persons in detention to realise the highest attainable standard of health. It examines this right as articulated within United Nations and regional human rights treaties, non-binding or so-called soft law instruments from international organisations and the jurisprudence of international human rights bodies. It explores the use of economic, social and cultural rights mechanisms, and those within civil and political rights, as they engage the right to health of prisoners, and identifies the minimum legal obligations of governments in order to remain compliant with human rights norms as defined within the international case law. In addressing these issues, this article adopts a holistic approach to the definition of the highest attainable standard of health. This includes a consideration of adequate standards of general medical care, including preventative health and mental health services. It also examines the question of environmental health, and those poor conditions of detention that may exacerbate health decline, disease transmission, mental illness or death. The paper examines the approach to prison health of the United Nations human rights system and its various monitoring bodies, as well as the regional human rights systems in Europe, Africa and the Americas. Based upon this analysis, the paper draws conclusions on the current fulfilment of the right to health of prisoners on an international scale, and proposes expanded mechanisms under the UN Convention against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment to monitor and promote the health rights of prisoners at the international and domestic levels.

When do tissues and cells become products? Regulatory oversight of emerging biological therapies.

Although therapeutics derived from biological sources have been subjected to regulatory oversight for some time, the products used in transplantation procedures have historically been exempt from this oversight. These products have been viewed as being part of medical practice rather than as the result of mainstream pharmaceutical manufacture. Furthermore, their unique source makes them difficult to assess in traditional regulatory systems based on the tenets of pharmaceutical quality control. With the increasing use of transplantation therapies to both replace dysfunctional organs and to influence genetic and metabolic processes, public health concerns on these therapies have increased. In addition, it is recognized that therapeutic claims for some of these interventions need to be properly assessed. These considerations have led the established regulatory agencies of the developed world to develop new regulatory paradigms for the products of transplantation practice. While a number of concerns have driven these developments, the minimization of infectious disease risk remains the paramount driver for introducing these regulatory systems. More than the regulation of medicines and medical devices manufactured in traditional pharmaceutical modes, the regulation of cell and tissue products is intimately linked to areas of public health policy and funding. This places regulators in a challenging position as they attempt to reconcile their roles as independent assessors with the needs of the overall public health framework. This is particularly difficult when considering measures which may affect access to life saving therapies. Regulators have recognized the need to assess these therapies through systems which incorporate consideration of risk-benefit ratios and include mechanisms for transparent and accountable release of products when full compliance to traditional concepts of manufacturing practice is not possible.

[Complementary to notification required by the national Protection against Infection Act. State-specific mandatory infectious disease notification in Saxony-Anhalt]. / Bundeslandspezifische Meldepflicht als Ergänzung zur Meldepflicht des IfSG. Landesspezifische Meldepflicht in Sachsen-Anhalt.

In May 1991 a decree supplementing the federal Epidemic Law concerning the mandatory notification of communicable diseases was implemented by the Ministry of Health in Saxony-Anhalt. This was updated and newly implemented in 1997. With implementation of the national Protection against Infection Act in 2001 further amendment of the state regulation (published in April 2005) be came necessary. The following diseases or laboratory evidence of the underlying pathogens, respectively, will now be notifiable with inclusion of the affected individual's name: aseptic meningitis, mumps, rubella, varicella, epidemickera to conjunctivitis, pertussis, and pneumococcal meningitis. The possibility of preventing further spread of the pathogen to others though immediate implementation of preventive measures by the public health service justifies notification of the individual's name. Furthermore, the epidemiological situation is to be monitored and evaluated. This also applies to Lyme disease, which will be anonymously notifiable. Particular emphasis is placed on vaccine-preventable diseases in the state regulation for mandatory notification in Saxony-Anhalt, since priority is placed on attaining the health goal "age-appropriate vaccination status in over 90% of the population". The state-specific notification regulation of Saxony-Anhalt has worked well in preventing and controlling communicable diseases. It is a source of reliable data, which may be helpful in the discussion regarding the amendment of the Protection against Infection Act. Non-anonymous notification should be enforced nationally at least for all vaccine-preventable diseases for which a post-exposure vaccination is recommended by the Standing Committee on Vaccination (STIKO).