The Role of Micronutrients in Ageing Asia: What Can Be Implemented with the Existing Insights.

Life expectancy as a measure of population health does not reflect years of healthy life. The average life expectancy in the Asia-Pacific region has more than doubled since 1900 and is now above 70 years. In the Asia-Pacific region, the proportion of aged people in the population is expected to double between 2017 and 2050. Increased life expectancy leads to an increase in non-communicable diseases, which consequently affects quality of life. Suboptimal nutritional status is a contributing factor to the prevalence and severity of non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular, cognitive, musculoskeletal, immune, metabolic and ophthalmological functions. We have reviewed the published literature on nutrition and healthy ageing as it applies to the Asia-Pacific region, focusing on vitamins, minerals/trace elements and omega-3 fatty acids. Optimal nutritional status needs to start before a senior age is reached and before the consequences of the disease process are irreversible. Based on the nutritional status and health issues in the senior age in the region, micronutrients of particular importance are vitamins A, D, E, C, B-12, zinc and omega-3 fatty acids. The present paper substantiates the creation of micronutrient guidelines and proposes actions to support the achievement of optimal nutritional status as contribution to healthy ageing for Asia-Pacific populations.

Planning for tomorrow: global cancer incidence and the role of prevention 2020-2070.

Cancer is currently the first or second most common contributor to premature mortality in most countries of the world. The global number of patients with cancer is expected to rise over the next 50 years owing to the strong influence of demographic changes, such as population ageing and growth, on the diverging trends in cancer incidence in different regions. Assuming that the latest incidence trends continue for the major cancer types, we predict a doubling of the incidence of all cancers combined by 2070 relative to 2020. The greatest increases are predicted in lower-resource settings, in countries currently assigned a low Human Development Index (HDI), whereas the predicted increases in national burden diminish with increasing levels of national HDI. Herein, we assess studies modelling the future burden of cancer that underscore how comprehensive cancer prevention strategies can markedly reduce the prevalence of major risk factors and, in so doing, the number of future cancer cases. Focusing on an in-depth assessment of prevention strategies that target tobacco smoking, overweight and obesity, and human papillomavirus infection, we discuss how stepwise, population-level approaches with amenable goals can avert millions of future cancer diagnoses worldwide. In the absence of a step-change in cancer prevention delivery, tobacco smoking will remain the leading preventable cause of cancer, and overweight and obesity might well present a comparable opportunity for prevention, given its increasing prevalence globally in the past few decades. Countries must therefore instigate national cancer control programmes aimed at preventing cancer, and with some urgency, if such programmes are to yield the desired public health and economic benefits in this century.

Age- and cause-specific contributions to the life expectancy gap between Medical Aid recipients and National Health Insurance beneficiaries in Korea, 2008-2017.

Recipients of Medical Aid, a government-funded social assistance program for the poor, have a shorter life expectancy than National Health Insurance beneficiaries in Korea. This study aims to explore the contributions of age and major causes of death to the life expectancy difference between the two groups. We used the National Health Information Database provided by the National Health Insurance Service individually linked to mortality registration data of Statistics Korea between 2008 and 2017. Annual abridged life tables were constructed and Arriaga's life expectancy decomposition method was employed to estimate age- and cause-specific contributions to the life expectancy gap between National Health Insurance beneficiaries and Medical Aid recipients. The life expectancy difference between National Health Insurance beneficiaries and Medical Aid recipients was 14.5 years during the period of 2008-2017. The age groups between 30 and 64 years accounted for 78.7% and 67.5% of the total life expectancy gap in men and women, respectively. Cancer was the leading cause of death contributing to excess mortality among Medical Aid recipients compared to National Health Insurance beneficiaries. More specifically, alcohol-attributable deaths (such as alcoholic liver disease, liver cancer, liver cirrhosis, and alcohol/substance abuse), suicide, and cardiometabolic risk factor-related deaths (such as cerebrovascular disease, ischemic heart disease, and diabetes) were the leading contributors to the life expectancy gap. To decrease excess deaths in Medical Aid recipients and reduce health inequalities, effective policies for tobacco and alcohol regulation, suicide prevention, and interventions to address cardiometabolic risk factors are needed.

Global and regional trends of people living with HIV aged 50 and over: Estimates and projections for 2000-2020.

BACKGROUND: The increasing numbers of people living with HIV (PLHIV) who are receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) have near normal life-expectancy, resulting in more people living with HIV over the age of 50 years (PLHIV50+). Estimates of the number of PLHIV50+ are needed for the development of tailored therapeutic and prevention interventions at country, regional and global level. METHODS: The AIDS Impact Module of the Spectrum software was used to compute the numbers of PLHIV, new infections, and AIDS-related deaths for PLHIV50+ for the years 2000-2016. Projections until 2020 were calculated based on an assumed ART scale-up to 81% coverage by 2020, consistent with the UNAIDS 90-90-90 treatment targets. RESULTS: Globally, there were 5.7 million [4.7 million- 6.6 million] PLHIV50+ in 2016. The proportion of PLHIV50+ increased substantially from 8% in 2000 to 16% in 2016 and is expected to increase to 21% by 2020. In 2016, 80% of PLHIV50+ lived in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), with Eastern and Southern Africa containing the largest number of PLHIV50+. While the proportion of PLHIV50+ was greater in high income countries, LMICs have higher numbers of PLHIV50+ that are expected to continue to increase by 2020. CONCLUSIONS: The number of PLHIV50+ has increased dramatically since 2000 and this is expected to continue by 2020, especially in LMICs. HIV prevention campaigns, testing and treatment programs should also focus on the specific needs of PLHIV50+. Integrated health and social services should be developed to cater for the changing physical, psychological and social needs of PLHIV50+, many of whom will need to use HIV and non-HIV services.

Projections of prevalence, lifetime risk, and life expectancy of Parkinson's disease (2010-2030) in France.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies on the number of Parkinson's disease (PD) patients in the future based on projections of population size underestimated PD burden because they did not take into account the improvement of life expectancy over time. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to assess PD progression from 2010 to 2030 in France in terms of prevalent patient numbers, prevalence rates, lifetime risk, and life expectancy with PD, accounting for projections of overall mortality and increased risk of death of PD patients. METHODS: To provide projections of PD burden, we applied a multistate approach considering age and calendar time to incidence and prevalence rates of PD (France 2010) based on drug claims and national demographic data. RESULTS: The number of PD patients will increase by ∼65% between 2010 (n = 155,000) and 2030 (n ∼ 260,000), mainly for individuals older than 65 years; the prevalence rate of PD after age 45 will increase from 0.59% in 2010 to ∼0.80% in 2030. We project an extension of ∼3 years of the life expectancy of PD patients at 65 years between 2010 (women, 14.8 years; men, 13.0 years) and 2030 (women, 17.8 years; men, 16.1 years), and a relative increase of about 10% of the lifetime risk of PD at 45 years between 2010 (women, 5.5%; men, 6.0%) and 2030 (women, 6.3%; men, 7.4%). CONCLUSIONS: The number of PD patients is predicted to grow substantially in future years as a consequence of population aging and life expectancy improvement. The assessment of the future PD burden is an important step for planning resources needed for patient care in aging societies. © 2018 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Japan's healthcare policy for the elderly through the concepts of self-help (Ji-jo), mutual aid (Go-jo), social solidarity care (Kyo-jo), and governmental care (Ko-jo).

Elderly care is an emerging global issue threatening both developed and developing countries. The elderly in Japan increased to 26.7% of the population in 2015, and Japan is classified as a super-aged society. In this article, we introduce the financial aspects of the medical care and welfare services policy for the elderly in Japan. Japan's universal health insurance coverage system has been in place since 1961. Long-term care includes welfare services, which were separated from the medical care insurance scheme in 2000 when Japan was already recognized as an aging society. Since then, the percentage of the population over 65 has increased dramatically, with the productive-age population on the decrease. The Japanese government, therefore, is seeking to implement "The Community-based Integrated Care System" with the aim of building comprehensive up-to-the-end-of-life support services in each community. The system has four proposed elements: self-help (Ji-jo), mutual aid (Go-jo), social solidarity care (Kyo-jo), and government care (Ko-jo). From the financial perspective, as the government struggles against the financial burdens of an aging population, they are considering self-help and mutual aid. Based on Japan's present situation, both elements could lead to positive results. The Japanese government must also entrust the responsibility for implementing preventive support to municipalities through strongly required regional autonomy. As Japan has resolved this new challenge through several discussions over a long period of time, other aging countries could learn from the Japanese experience of solving barriers to healthcare policy for the elderly.

Advanced dementia: opinions of physicians and nurses about antibiotic therapy, artificial hydration and nutrition in patients with different life expectancies.

AIM: The aim of the present study was to investigate the proportion of physicians and nurses who agree with the administration of antibiotic therapy (AT), artificial hydration (AH), and artificial nutrition (AN) in patients with advanced dementia and different life expectancies. Furthermore, we aimed at analyzing the correlates of the opinion according to which medical treatments should no longer be given to advanced dementia patients once their life expectancy falls. METHODS: End-of-life decisions and opinions were measured with a questionnaire that was sent to geriatric units, hospices and nursing homes in three different regions of Italy. Multivariate logistic regressions were carried out to ascertain the correlates of the agreement with the administration of AH, AT or AN. RESULTS: When the patient's life expectancy was 1-6 months, 83% of respondents agreed with AH, 79% with AT and 71% with AN. When the life expectancy was less than 1 month, a large proportion of respondents still agreed with AH and AT (73% and 61%), whereas less than one in two respondents (48%) agreed with AN. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of the present study showed that AN creates more ethical dilemmas in the clinical management of end of life than other treatments, such as AH or AT. Opinions on whether or not these practices are appropriate at the end of life were related with feelings, thoughts and ethical issues that played a different part for physicians and nurses. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2017; 17: 487-493.

Envelhecimento da pele: o papel da Fitoterapia / Envejecimiento de la piel: el papel de la Fitoterapia / Aging skin: the role of herbal medicine

Em consequencia do aumento da esperança média de vida, o impacto do envelhecimento tem assumido um interesse gradualment crescente. A pele asume um papel central, refletindo os primeiros sinais de envelhecimento como rugas, deshidrataçao, perda de luminosidade e de firmeza. No sentido de preservar uma boa aparencia, a procura de productos com açao na prevençao e tratamento do envelhecimento da pele tam aumentado. Por sua vez, a dermocosmética tem incluído cada vez mais nas suas formulaçoes ingredientes à base de plantas, que tem demonstrado diversas propiedades com muito interesse nesta área. Assim, este artigo tem como abjetivo nao só abordar o tema envelhecimento da pele como também fazer uma revisao sobre os beneficios de algunas plantas, algas e seus metabolitos, nomeadamente, Aloe barbadensis, Argania spinosa, Calendula officinalis, Camellia sinensis, Fucus vesiculosus, Glycine max e Vitis vinífera (AU)

Como resultado del aumento de la esperanza de vida, el impacto del envejecimiento como las arrugas, deshidratació, pérdida de luminosidad y firmeza. A fin de mantener una buena apariencia, ha aumentado la demanda de productos con acción en la prevención y el tratamiento de envejecimiento de la piel. A su vez, la dermocosmética ha incluido cada vez ás en sus formulaciones ingredientes vegetales que han demostrado tener propiedades de interés en esta área. Este artículo pretende abordar no sólo la piel tema de envejecimiento, sino también revisar los beneficios de algunas plantas, algas y sus metabolitos, en particular: Aloe barbadensis, Argania spinosa, Caléndula officinalis, Camelia sinensis, Fucus vesiculosus, Glycine max y Vitis vinífera (AU)

As a results of the increase of the life expectancy, the impact of aging has assumed an increasingly growing interest. The skin plays a central role, reflecting the first signs of aging such as wrinkles, dry skin, blemishes, loss of luminosity and firmness. To preserve a good appearance, the demand of products with action in their prevention and treatment has increased. In turn, the dermocosmetic has increasingly included in their formulations herbal ingredients that have demonstrated various properties with great interest in this area. This article aims to make an approach to the skin aging subjects as well as to review the benefits of plants algae and their metabolites, including Aloa Barbadensis, Argania spinose, Calendula officinalis, Camelia sinensis, Fucus vesiculosus, Glycine max and Vitis vinifera (AU)

The influence of the initial state of nutrition on the lifespan of patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) during home enteral nutrition / La influencia del estado inicial de la nutrición en la esperanza de vida de pacientes con esclerosis lateral amiotrófica (ALS) durante la nutrición enteral en casa

Aim: Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a chronic, neurodegenerative disease, which leads to development of malnutrition. The main purpose of this research was to analyze the impact of malnutrition on the course of the disease and long-term survival. Material and methods: A retrospective analysis has been performed on 48 patients (22 F [45,83%] and 26 M [54,17%], the average age of patients: 66,2 [43-83]) in 2008-2014.The analysis of the initial state of nutrition was measured by body mass index (BMI), nutritional status according to NRS 2002, SGA and concentration of albumin in blood serum. Patients were divided into two groups, depending on the state of nutrition: well-nourished and malnourished. The groups were created separately for each of these, which allowed an additional comparative analysis of techniques used for the assessment of nutritional status. Results: Proper state of nutrition was interrelated with longer survival (SGA: 456 vs. 679 days, NRS: 312 vs. 659 vs. 835 days, BMI: respectively, 411, 541, 631 days, results were statistically significant for NRS and BMI). Concentration of albumin was not a prognostic factor, but longer survival was observed when level of albumin was increased during nutritional therapy. Conclusions: The initial nutrition state and positive response to enteral feeding is associated with better survival among patients with ALS. For this reason, nutritional therapy should be introduced as soon as possible (AU)

Objetivo: la esclerosis lateral amiotrófica (ELA) es una enfermedad crónica, neurodegenerativa que genera malnutrición. El objetivo principal de este estudio es analizar el impacto de la malnutrición en el curso de la enfermedad y la sobrevida a largo plazo. Materiales y métodos: se realizó un análisis retrospectivo de 48 pacientes (22 mujeres [45.83%] y 26 hombres [54.17%], con un promedio de edad de 66,2 [43-83]) del 2008 al 2014. El análisis del estado nutricional inicial se midió utilizando el índice de masa corporal (IMC), el estado nutricional de acuerdo al NRS 2002, la valoración global subjetiva (VGS) y la concentración sérica de albúmina. Los pacientes se dividieron en dos grupos, dependiendo del estado nutricional en el que se encontraban: bien nutridos o malnutridos. Los grupos se crearon por separado, lo que permitió un análisis comparativo adicional de las técnicas utilizadas para la evaluación del estado nutricional. Resultados: un estado nutricional adecuado se relaciona con mayor sobreviva a largo plazo (456 vs. 679 días, NRS 312 vs. 659 vs. 835 días, IMC respectivamente: 41, 541, 631 días, resultados estadísticamente significativos para NRS e IMC). Las concentraciones de albúmina no fueron un factor pronóstico, pero se observó mayor sobrevida si las concentraciones de albúmina incrementaban durante el tratamiento nutricional. Conclusiones: el estado nutricional inicial y la respuesta positiva a la alimentación enteral están asociados a mayor sobrevida en pacientes con ELA, razón por la cual, la terapia nutricional debe de iniciarse lo antes posible (AU)

Population Aging and Healthcare Expenditure in Korea.

Korea's rapid population aging has been considered as a major factor in increase of healthcare expenditure (HCE). However, there were no clear empirical evidences in Korea that show if population aging has a significant impact on HCE. To examine the 'red herring' argument, this study used Heckman, two-part, and augmented model with Korean National Health Insurance claim data for the deceased and survivors of aged 20 years and over verified by Korean National Health Insurance Service between January 1 and December 31, 2010. Our results suggest that when time to death is controlled for as explanatory variable, HCE decreases as a function of age, and HCE during the terminal year increases as a function of time to death, and HCE in the last quarter of life decreases with age. Therefore, this study affirms that there is no age effect in Korea experiencing the most rapid population aging among Asian countries. An increase in the number of elderly, due to the aging of baby boomers, may not increase a share of HCE out of gross domestic product (GDP) in Korea. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Japan as the front-runner of super-aged societies: Perspectives from medicine and medical care in Japan.

BACKGROUND: The demographic structure of a country changes dramatically with increasing trends toward general population aging and declining birth rates. In Japan, the percentage of the elderly population (aged ≥65 years) reached 25% in 2013; it is expected to exceed 30% in 2025 and reach 39.9% in 2060. The national total population has been decreasing steadily since its peak reached in 2008, and it is expected to fall to the order of 80 million in 2060. Of the total population, those aged ≥75 years accounted for 12.3% as of 2013, and this is expected to reach 26.9% in 2060. As the demographic structure changes, the disease structure changes, and therefore the medical care demand changes. To accommodate the medical care demand changes, it is necessary to secure a system for providing medical care. Japan has thus far attained remarkable achievements in medical care, seeking a better prognosis for survival; however, its medical care demand is anticipated to change both qualitatively and quantitatively. As diseases in the elderly, particularly in the old-old population, are often intractable, conventional medical care must be upgraded to one suitable for an aged society. What is required to this end is a shift from "cure-seeking medical care" focusing on disease treatment on an organ-specific basis to "cure and support-seeking medical care" with treatments reprioritized to maximize the quality of life (QOL) for the patient, or a change from "hospital-centered medical care" to "community-oriented medical care" in correlation with nursing care and welfare. CURRENT SITUATION AND PROBLEMS: (1) Necessity for a paradigm shift to "cure-and-support seeking medical care" In addition to the process of aging with functional deterioration of multiple organs, the elderly often suffer from systemically disordering diseases, such as lifestyle-related diseases, as well as geriatric syndrome and daily activity dysfunction; therefore, integrated and comprehensive medical care is required. In addition, with regard to diseases in the elderly, not only their acute stage, but also their chronic and intermediate stages must be emphasized in their treatment. Aiming to achieve a complete cure of disease by exploring the cause and implementing radical treatment, the conventional medical care model is difficult to apply to the medical care of the elderly; medical care suitable for the elderly is required. (2) Spread of home-based care and the necessity for human resources development Many elderly people want to continue to live in their house and their community where they have been living for a long time, even with disease. There are increasing needs for QOL-emphasizing home-based care for patients in the intermediate stage after completion of acute stage treatment, or for end-of-life care. Hence, there is a demand for a shift to "community-oriented medical care" for providing comprehensive care supported with medical and nursing resources available in the community. As the percentage of the elderly population (aged ≥65 years) and the availability of medical care resources vary considerably among different regions, it is important that specialists in the fields of public health, medical care, nursing care, and welfare work on establishing a collaborative system suitable for the local characteristics of each region by making the best use of their own specialties. (3) Necessity for establishing a department of gerontology or geriatric medicine at each medical school In line with the increasing number of elderly people, it is necessary to upgrade the systems for educating and nurturing physicians engaged in healthcare and nursing care for the elderly. It is also necessary to develop the organic cooperation with other medical and nursing care professionals, such as registered nurses and care workers. At present, just approximately 30% of medical schools in Japan have a department specializing in medical care for the elderly and relevant medical education; there is an urgent need to improve the situation, as the majority of universities do not provide any such education. (4) Necessity for establishing a medical center for promoting medical care provider collaboration, multidisciplinary training and a means to increase public awareness In the medical care for the elderly, comprehensive care must be provided from the viewpoints of both healthcare and nursing care; to improve the quality of such care services, multidisciplinary collaboration and team-based medicine are indispensable. Therefore, physicians, nurses, therapists, pharmacists, dieticians, care managers, and other health care professionals who have thorough knowledge about medical care for the elderly are of utmost necessity. In reality, however, the collaboration of these health care professionals is unsatisfactory, and the degree of understanding of team-based medicine by each medical professional is low. Therefore, as in the case of the establishment of cancer centers within individual regions to promote medical care for cancer, there is a demand to nurture professionals engaged in medical care for the elderly, and to establish a core facility for the promotion of multidisciplinary collaboration and team-based medicine for each region. (5) Do the people understand the paradigm shift? Currently, not only healthcare professionals, but also many citizens seek "cure-seeking medical care" aiming at a restoration of organ function; however, surveys of the elderly often show that they want to restore independent daily activity, rather than to achieve a "cure." In contrast, in the actual medical care setting, contradictory situations prevail in which the public awareness of the shift to "cure-and-support seeking medical care" is unsatisfactory, including the fact that the majority of recipients of tertiary emergency care are elderly patients. CONTENTS OF THE PROPOSAL: The Science Council of Japan has the task to propose future visions for the Japanese aging society not only from the viewpoint of the health of each individual, but also from a broader perspective, taking into account the relationship between humans and society. Various issues related to general population aging are posing serious problems, which require prompt resolution. Although we made a number of proposals at the 21st Subcommittee for Aging, the situation has not changed satisfactorily. Accordingly, the present proposals on specific solutions were designed. (1) In a super-aged society, a paradigm shift to "cure-and-support seeking medical care" should be implemented A super-aged society will consist of an unprecedented demographic structure in which the percentage of only those people aged ≥75 years will increase in the entire population. Therefore, there is an urgent need to prepare for increasing populations of persons in need of long-term care and those who are likely to become in need of long-term care. Given the consideration that "patients are not merely sick persons, but rather living persons," a paradigm shift from conventional "cure-seeking medical care" to "cure and support-seeking medical care" must be implemented. (2) Facilitate a paradigm shift to community-oriented medical care, and promote the activity of female physicians in the medical care for the elderly A paradigm shift should be promptly facilitated by reorganizing hospital functions and establishing a community comprehensive care system for home-based care to promote the participation of the elderly by themselves in care-supporting society. To further promote the collaboration of medical care and welfare, not only persons in charge of actual regional settings, but also university schools of medicine and regional core medical institutions experienced in medical care for the elderly should take the initiative to promote home-based care and facilitate a paradigm shift to community-oriented medical care. In addition, programs should also be developed to re-educate female physicians who became housewives in order to nurture them to become facilitators of geriatric medicine. (3) Physicians who are required at local medical facilities must be nurtured through the establishment of a department of gerontology or geriatric medicine at each medical school To facilitate efficient medical care services, medical education and research, and human resources development in support of expected paradigm shifts, it is considered that a department of gerontology or geriatric medicine should be established at each medical school. Furthermore, it is necessary to allocate dedicated teachers of medical care for the elderly to all medical schools, as well as to upgrade practice-participatory drills and to collaborate with a broad range of entities, including local medical institutions, and welfare and nursing care facilities. Efforts must be made to nurture locally wanted physicians through specific efforts concerning team-based medicine. (4) Promote the establishment of centers for geriatrics and gerontology (provisional name) for medical care collaboration, multidisciplinary training, and a means to increase public awareness To promote the uniform accessibility of expertise on efficient medical care that is best suited for a super-aged society, it is necessary to build a post-graduation educational system under the initiatives of the Japan Geriatrics Society and the National Center for Geriatrics and Gerontology across the nation in cooperation with regional medical schools and the Japan Medical Association. Furthermore, at least one hospital serving as a center for geriatrics and gerontology should be established in each regional block (Hokkaido, Tohoku, Koshinetsu, Hokuriku/Tokai, Kinki, Chushikoku and Kyushu/Okinawa) by making the best use of existing hospitals. Byestablishing these centers, uniform accessibility for the quality of medical care for the elderly in each region is expected. (ABSTRACT TRUNCATED).

Methods for the estimation of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence cost-effectiveness threshold.

BACKGROUND: Cost-effectiveness analysis involves the comparison of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of a new technology, which is more costly than existing alternatives, with the cost-effectiveness threshold. This indicates whether or not the health expected to be gained from its use exceeds the health expected to be lost elsewhere as other health-care activities are displaced. The threshold therefore represents the additional cost that has to be imposed on the system to forgo 1 quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of health through displacement. There are no empirical estimates of the cost-effectiveness threshold used by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. OBJECTIVES: (1) To provide a conceptual framework to define the cost-effectiveness threshold and to provide the basis for its empirical estimation. (2) Using programme budgeting data for the English NHS, to estimate the relationship between changes in overall NHS expenditure and changes in mortality. (3) To extend this mortality measure of the health effects of a change in expenditure to life-years and to QALYs by estimating the quality-of-life (QoL) associated with effects on years of life and the additional direct impact on QoL itself. (4) To present the best estimate of the cost-effectiveness threshold for policy purposes. METHODS: Earlier econometric analysis estimated the relationship between differences in primary care trust (PCT) spending, across programme budget categories (PBCs), and associated disease-specific mortality. This research is extended in several ways including estimating the impact of marginal increases or decreases in overall NHS expenditure on spending in each of the 23 PBCs. Further stages of work link the econometrics to broader health effects in terms of QALYs. RESULTS: The most relevant 'central' threshold is estimated to be £12,936 per QALY (2008 expenditure, 2008-10 mortality). Uncertainty analysis indicates that the probability that the threshold is < £20,000 per QALY is 0.89 and the probability that it is < £30,000 per QALY is 0.97. Additional 'structural' uncertainty suggests, on balance, that the central or best estimate is, if anything, likely to be an overestimate. The health effects of changes in expenditure are greater when PCTs are under more financial pressure and are more likely to be disinvesting than investing. This indicates that the central estimate of the threshold is likely to be an overestimate for all technologies which impose net costs on the NHS and the appropriate threshold to apply should be lower for technologies which have a greater impact on NHS costs. LIMITATIONS: The central estimate is based on identifying a preferred analysis at each stage based on the analysis that made the best use of available information, whether or not the assumptions required appeared more reasonable than the other alternatives available, and which provided a more complete picture of the likely health effects of a change in expenditure. However, the limitation of currently available data means that there is substantial uncertainty associated with the estimate of the overall threshold. CONCLUSIONS: The methods go some way to providing an empirical estimate of the scale of opportunity costs the NHS faces when considering whether or not the health benefits associated with new technologies are greater than the health that is likely to be lost elsewhere in the NHS. Priorities for future research include estimating the threshold for subsequent waves of expenditure and outcome data, for example by utilising expenditure and outcomes available at the level of Clinical Commissioning Groups as well as additional data collected on QoL and updated estimates of incidence (by age and gender) and duration of disease. Nonetheless, the study also starts to make the other NHS patients, who ultimately bear the opportunity costs of such decisions, less abstract and more 'known' in social decisions. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research-Medical Research Council Methodology Research Programme.

The relationship between economic status and mortality of South Koreans, as it relates to average life expectancy.

This study investigates the relationship between economic status and mortality of Korean men and women who were under and over the average national life expectancy using Cox's proportional hazard model to adjust for health status, past medical history, and age. The study subjects come from local applicants of Korean National Health Insurance who had a health examination in 2005. They were enrolled into a follow-up investigation from 2005 to 2011. In individuals younger than the average life expectancy, the mortality of the lowest economic status was 2.48 times higher in men and 2.02 times higher in women than that in the highest economic status. Economic status-mortality association in males older than the average life expectancy was attenuated but not eliminated. However, there is no significant relationship between economic status and mortality for females above the average life expectancy.

Future trends in health and health care: implications for social work practice in an aging society.

Major economic, political, demographic, social, and operational system factors are prompting evolutionary changes in health care delivery. Of particular significance, the "graying of America" promises new challenges and opportunities for health care social work. At the same time, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010, evolution of Accountable Care Organizations, and an emphasis on integrated, transdisciplinary, person-centered care represent fundamental shifts in service delivery with implications for social work practice and education. This article identifies the aging shift in American demography, its impact on health policy legislation, factors influencing fundamentally new service delivery paradigms, and opportunities of the profession to address the health disparities and care needs of an aging population. It underscores the importance of social work inclusion in integrated health care delivery and offers recommendations for practice education.

At the intersection of HIV/AIDS and cancer: a qualitative needs assessment of community-based HIV/AIDS service organizations.

Due to advances in treatment, persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) or acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) are living longer, but with aging, immune deficits, and lifestyle factors, they are at increased risk for cancer. This challenges community-based AIDS service organizations (ASOs) to address the growing cancer needs of persons living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA). Community-based participatory research was applied to engage ASOs in exploring their capacities and needs for integrating cancer-focused programming into their services. Focus groups were conducted with a community advisory board (CAB) representing 10 community-based organizations serving PLWHA. Three 90-minute, serial focus groups were conducted with a mean number of seven participants. Topics explored CAB members' organizational capacities and needs in cancer prevention, detection, treatment, and survivorship. Transcript analyses identified six themes: (a) agencies have limited experience with cancer-focused programs, which were not framed as cancer specific; (b) agencies need resources and collaborative partnerships to effectively incorporate cancer services; (c) staff and clients must be educated about the relevance of cancer to HIV/AIDS; (d) agencies want to know about linkages between HIV/AIDS and cancer; (e) cancer care providers should be culturally competent; and (f) agencies see opportunities to improve their services through research participation but are wary. Agency capacities were strong in relationships with clients and cultural competency, a holistic view of PLWHA health, expertise in prevention activities, and eagerness to be on the cutting edge of knowledge. Cancer education and prevention were of greatest interest and considered most feasible, suggesting that future projects develop accordingly. These findings suggest a high level of receptivity to expanding or initiating cancer-focused activities but with a clear need for education and awareness building. Qualitative findings will inform a large quantitative survey to validate identified themes, which will be applied in developing interventions to assist ASOs in adopting or expanding cancer-focused activities.

The quest for equity in Latin America: a comparative analysis of the health care reforms in Brazil and Colombia.

INTRODUCTION: Brazil and Colombia have pursued extensive reforms of their health care systems in the last couple of decades. The purported goals of such reforms were to improve access, increase efficiency and reduce health inequities. Notwithstanding their common goals, each country sought a very different pathway to achieve them. While Brazil attempted to reestablish a greater level of State control through a public national health system, Colombia embraced market competition under an employer-based social insurance scheme. This work thus aims to shed some light onto why they pursued divergent strategies and what that has meant in terms of health outcomes. METHODS: A critical review of the literature concerning equity frameworks, as well as the health care reforms in Brazil and Colombia was conducted. Then, the shortfall inequality values of crude mortality rate, infant mortality rate, under-five mortality rate, and life expectancy for the period 1960-2005 were calculated for both countries. Subsequently, bivariate and multivariate linear regression analyses were performed and controlled for possibly confounding factors. RESULTS: When controlling for the underlying historical time trend, both countries appear to have experienced a deceleration of the pace of improvements in the years following the reforms, for all the variables analyzed. In the case of Colombia, some of the previous gains in under-five mortality rate and crude mortality rate were, in fact, reversed. CONCLUSIONS: Neither reform seems to have had a decisive positive impact on the health outcomes analyzed for the defined time period of this research. This, in turn, may be a consequence of both internal characteristics of the respective reforms and external factors beyond the direct control of health reformers. Among the internal characteristics: underfunding, unbridled decentralization and inequitable access to care seem to have been the main constraints. Conversely, international economic adversities, high levels of rural and urban violence, along with entrenched income inequalities seem to have accounted for the highest burden among external factors.