RESUMEN
Historic data from many countries demonstrate that on average no more than 50-70% of the uranium in a deposit could be mined. An analysis of more recent data from Canada and Australia leads to a mining model with an average deposit extraction lifetime of 10±2 years. This simple model provides an accurate description of the extractable amount of uranium for the recent mining operations. Using this model for all larger existing and planned uranium mines up to 2030, a global uranium mining peak of at most 58±4 ktons around the year 2015 is obtained. Thereafter we predict that uranium mine production will decline to at most 54±5 ktons by 2025 and, with the decline steepening, to at most 41±5 ktons around 2030. This amount will not be sufficient to fuel the existing and planned nuclear power plants during the next 10-20 years. In fact, we find that it will be difficult to avoid supply shortages even under a slow 1%/year worldwide nuclear energy phase-out scenario up to 2025. We thus suggest that a worldwide nuclear energy phase-out is in order. If such a slow global phase-out is not voluntarily effected, the end of the present cheap uranium supply situation will be unavoidable. The result will be that some countries will simply be unable to afford sufficient uranium fuel at that point, which implies involuntary and perhaps chaotic nuclear phase-outs in those countries involving brownouts, blackouts, and worse.
Asunto(s)
Conservación de los Recursos Naturales/métodos , Minería/métodos , Minería/tendencias , Modelos Económicos , Uranio/economía , Uranio/provisión & distribución , Conservación de los Recursos Naturales/tendencias , Historia del Siglo XX , Historia del Siglo XXI , Minería/historia , Minería/estadística & datos numéricosRESUMEN
This paper presents the WNA's worldwide nuclear industry overview on the anticipated growth of the front-end nuclear fuel cycle from uranium mining to conversion and enrichment, and on the related key health, safety, and environmental (HSE) issues and challenges. It also puts an emphasis on uranium mining in new producing countries with insufficiently developed regulatory regimes that pose greater HSE concerns. It introduces the new WNA policy on uranium mining: Sustaining Global Best Practices in Uranium Mining and Processing-Principles for Managing Radiation, Health and Safety and the Environment, which is an outgrowth of an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) cooperation project that closely involved industry and governmental experts in uranium mining from around the world.