Dianchi Lake watershed impervious surface area dynamics and their impact on lake water quality from 1988 to 2017.

The relationships between impervious surface area (ISA) patterns and characteristics have long been studied to examine the impacts of hydrological cycles, water management, surface energy balances, and biodiversity. This study assessed the Dianchi Lake watershed as a case study area to illustrate ISA change characteristics and their impacts on Dianchi Lake water quality. More than 200 Landsat images (from 1988 to 2017) were first downloaded through the US Geological Survey (USGS) online portal. Then, a series of ISA maps of the Dianchi Lake watershed at an annual resolution were built using a robust method we proposed. Then, the change characteristics of main water quality parameters were analyzed from spatial-temporal viewpoints. Finally, correlations between ISA and Lake water quality were made. The research results indicated that the ISA proportion of the Dianchi Lake watershed rapidly increased (from 1.84% in 1988 to 34.32% in 2017), the annual ISA total growth rate exceeded 21 km2/year, and the urban area encircled Dianchi Lake. The Dianchi Lake watershed has begun to adopt the "Rashly Advancing" and "Great Leap Forward" strategies of urbanization. Chlorophyll a (Chla), dissolved oxygen (DO), and transparency (Trans) showed significantly changing tendencies, whereas the values of pH, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus stayed relatively constant. The polynomial regression models and corresponding R2 values indicated strong correlations between ISA and three water quality parameters (Chla, DO, and Trans). The development of better strategies for the control and reduction of water pollution without optimizing ISA spatial distribution is essential for Kunming's continued urbanization.

Identifying sociodemographic, programmatic and dietary drivers of anaemia reduction in pregnant Indian women over 10 years.

OBJECTIVE: Anaemia is a major contributor to the global disease burden and half of pregnant women in India were anaemic in 2016. The aetiology of anaemia is complex, yet anaemia determinants are frequently examined in isolation. We sought to explore how shifts in sociodemographic (wealth, age at pregnancy, education, open defecation, cooking fuel type, household size), programmatic (iron-folic acid tablet consumption, antenatal care visits) and dietary factors (intake of Fe, folic acid, vitamin B12, phytate) predicted changes in anaemia prevalence. DESIGN: Nutrient levels for eighty-eight food items were multiplied by household consumption of these foods to estimate household-level nutrient supply. A synthetic panel data set was created from two rounds of the District Level Household and Facility Survey (2002-04 and 2012-13) and Household Consumer Expenditures Survey (2004-05 and 2011-12). Ordinary least-squares multivariate regression models were used. SETTING: Districts (n 446) spanning north, north-east, central and south India. SUBJECTS: Pregnant women aged 15-49 years (n 17 138). RESULTS: In the model accounting for both non-dietary and dietary factors, increased age at pregnancy (P<0·001), reduced village-level open defecation (P=0·001), consuming more Fe (P<0·001) and folic acid (P=0·018) and less phytate (P=0·002), and urbanization (P=0·015) were associated with anaemia reductions. A 10 mg increase in daily household Fe supply from 2012 levels was associated with a 10 % reduction in anaemia. CONCLUSIONS: Public health interventions to combat anaemia in pregnant women should use a holistic approach, including promotion of delayed marriage, construction and use of toilets, and measures that facilitate adoption of nutrient-rich diets.

Combined and synergistic effects of climate change and urbanization on water quality in the Wolf Bay watershed, southern Alabama.

This study investigated potential changes in flow, total suspended solid (TSS) and nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorous) loadings under future climate change, land use/cover (LULC) change and combined change scenarios in the Wolf Bay watershed, southern Alabama, USA. Four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under three Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES) of greenhouse gas were used to assess the future climate change (2016-2040). Three projected LULC maps (2030) were employed to reflect different extents of urbanization in future. The individual, combined and synergistic impacts of LULC and climate change on water quantity/quality were analyzed by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Under the "climate change only" scenario, monthly distribution and projected variation of TSS are expected to follow a pattern similar to streamflow. Nutrients are influenced both by flow and management practices. The variation of Total Nitrogen (TN) and Total Phosphorous (TP) generally follow the flow trend as well. No evident difference in the N:P ratio was projected. Under the "LULC change only" scenario, TN was projected to decrease, mainly due to the shrinkage of croplands. TP will increase in fall and winter. The N:P ratio shows a strong decreasing potential. Under the "combined change" scenario, LULC and climate change effect were considered simultaneously. Results indicate that if future loadings are expected to increase/decrease under any individual scenario, then the combined change will intensify that trend. Conversely, if their effects are in opposite directions, an offsetting effect occurs. Science-based management practices are needed to reduce nutrient loadings to the Bay.

Relationships Between Land Use and Stream Nutrient Concentrations in a Highly Urbanized Tropical Region of Brazil: Thresholds and Riparian Zones.

Nutrient enrichment in streams due to land use is increasing globally, reducing water quality and causing eutrophication of downstream fresh and coastal waters. In temperate developed countries, the intensive use of fertilizers in agriculture is a main driver of increasing nutrient concentrations, but high levels and fast rates of urbanization can be a predominant issue in some areas of the developing world. We investigated land use in the highly urbanized tropical State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We collected total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and inorganic nutrient data from 35 independent watersheds distributed across the State and characterized land use at a riparian and entire watershed scales upstream from each sample station, using ArcGIS. We used regression models to explain land use influences on nutrient concentrations and to assess riparian protection relationships to water quality. We found that urban land use was the primary driver of nutrient concentration increases, independent of the scale of analyses and that urban land use was more concentrated in the riparian buffer of streams than in the entire watersheds. We also found significant thresholds that indicated strong increases in nutrient concentrations with modest increases in urbanization reaching maximum nutrient concentrations between 10 and 46% urban cover. These thresholds influenced calculation of reference nutrient concentrations, and ignoring them led to higher estimates of these concentrations. Lack of sewage treatment in concert with urban development in riparian zones apparently leads to the observation that modest increases in urban land use can cause large increases in nutrient concentrations.

Effect of home construction on soil carbon storage-A chronosequence case study.

Urbanization results in the rapid expansion of impervious surfaces, therefore a better understanding of biogeochemical consequences of soil sealing is crucial. Previous research documents a significant reduction in soil carbon and nitrogen content, however, it is unclear if this decrease is a result of top soil removal or long-term soil sealing. In this study, soil biogeochemical properties were quantified beneath homes built on a crawl space at two depths (0-10 cm, and 10-20 cm). All homes, 11-114 years in age, were sampled in the Piedmont region of Alabama and Georgia, USA. This age range enabled the use of a chronosequence approach to estimate carbon loss or gain under the sampled homes. The difference in soil carbon content beneath homes and adjoining urban lawns showed a quadratic relation with age. Maximum C loss occurred at approximately fifty years. The same pattern was observed for MBC: C ratio suggesting that the soil carbon content was decreasing beneath the homes for first fifty years, then increased afterward. The average soil C and N content in the top 10 cm were respectively 61.86% (±4.42%), and 65.77% (±5.65%) lower underneath the homes in comparison to urban lawns. Microbial biomass carbon (MBC), and nitrogen (MBN) were significantly lower below the homes compared to the urban lawns, while bulk density and phosphorus content were higher beneath the homes.

Optimal selection and placement of green infrastructure to reduce impacts of land use change and climate change on hydrology and water quality: An application to the Trail Creek Watershed, Indiana.

The adverse impacts of urbanization and climate change on hydrology and water quality can be mitigated by applying green infrastructure practices. In this study, the impacts of land use change and climate change on hydrology and water quality in the 153.2 km(2) Trail Creek watershed located in northwest Indiana were estimated using the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment-Low Impact Development 2.1 (L-THIA-LID 2.1) model for the following environmental concerns: runoff volume, Total Suspended Solids (TSS), Total Phosphorous (TP), Total Kjeldahl Nitrogen (TKN), and Nitrate+Nitrite (NOx). Using a recent 2001 land use map and 2050 land use forecasts, we found that land use change resulted in increased runoff volume and pollutant loads (8.0% to 17.9% increase). Climate change reduced runoff and nonpoint source pollutant loads (5.6% to 10.2% reduction). The 2050 forecasted land use with current rainfall resulted in the largest runoff volume and pollutant loads. The optimal selection and placement of green infrastructure practices using L-THIA-LID 2.1 model were conducted. Costs of applying green infrastructure were estimated using the L-THIA-LID 2.1 model considering construction, maintenance, and opportunity costs. To attain the same runoff volume and pollutant loads as in 2001 land uses for 2050 land uses, the runoff volume, TSS, TP, TKN, and NOx for 2050 needed to be reduced by 10.8%, 14.4%, 13.1%, 15.2%, and 9.0%, respectively. The corresponding annual costs of implementing green infrastructure to achieve the goals were $2.1, $0.8, $1.6, $1.9, and $0.8 million, respectively. Annual costs of reducing 2050 runoff volume/pollutant loads were estimated, and results show green infrastructure annual cost greatly increased for larger reductions in runoff volume and pollutant loads. During optimization, the most cost-efficient green infrastructure practices were selected and implementation levels increased for greater reductions of runoff and nonpoint source pollutants.

Massive land system changes impact water quality of the Jhelum River in Kashmir Himalaya.

The pristine aquatic ecosystems in the Himalayas are facing an ever increasing threat from various anthropogenic pressures which necessitate better understanding of the spatial and temporal variability of pollutants, their sources, and possible remedies. This study demonstrates the multi-disciplinary approach utilizing the multivariate statistical techniques, data from remote sensing, lab, and field-based observations for assessing the impact of massive land system changes on water quality of the river Jhelum. Land system changes over a period of 38 years have been quantified using multi-spectral satellite data to delineate the extent of different anthropogenically driven land use types that are the main non-point sources of pollution. Fifteen water quality parameters, at 12 sampling sites distributed uniformly along the length of the Jhelum, have been assessed to identify the possible sources of pollution. Our analysis indicated that 18% of the forested area has degraded into sparse forest or scrublands from 1972 to 2010, and the areas under croplands have decreased by 24% as people shifted from irrigation-intensive agriculture to orchard farming while as settlements showed a 397% increase during the observation period. One-way ANOVA revealed that all the water quality parameters had significant spatio-temporal differences (p < 0.01). Cluster analysis (CA) helped us to classify all the sampling sites into three groups. Factor analysis revealed that 91.84% of the total variance was mainly explained by five factors. Drastic changes in water quality of the Jhelum since the past three decades are manifested by increases in nitrate-nitrogen, TDS, and electric conductivity. The especially high levels of nitrogen (858 ± 405 µgL(-1)) and phosphorus (273 ± 18 µgL(-1)) in the Jhelum could be attributed to the reckless application of fertilizers, pesticides, and unplanned urbanization in the area.

Differential Accumulation of Mercury and Selenium in Brown Trout Tissues of a High-Gradient Urbanized Stream in Colorado, USA.

Total mercury (THg) and selenium (Se) were analyzed by Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry in 11 internal and external tissues and stomach contents from 23 brown trout, Salmo trutta, of a 22.9-km reach of a high-gradient stream (upper Fountain Creek) in Colorado, USA, impacted by coal-fired power plants, shale deposits, and urbanization. Trout and water were sampled from four sites ranging from 2335 to 1818 m elevation. Lengths, weights, and ages of fish between pairs of the four sites were not significantly different. The dry weight (dw) to wet weight (ww) conversion factor for each tissue was calculated with egg-ovary highest at 0.379 and epaxial muscle fourth highest at 0.223. THg and Se in stomach contents indicated diet and not ambient water was the major source of Hg and Se bioaccumulated. Mean THg ww in kidney was 40.33 µg/kg, and epaxial muscle second highest at 36.76 µg/kg. None of the tissues exceeded the human critical threshold for Hg. However, all 23 trout had at least one tissue type that exceeded 0.02 mg/kg THg ww for birds, and four trout tissues exceeded 0.1 mg/kg THg ww for mammals, indicating that piscivorous mammals and birds should be monitored. Se concentrations in tissues varied depending on ww or dw listing. Mean Se dw in liver was higher than ovary at the uppermost site and the two lower sites. Liver tissue, in addition to egg-ovary, should be utilized as an indicator tissue for Se toxicity.

Land use/land cover water quality nexus: quantifying anthropogenic influences on surface water quality.

Anthropogenic forces widely influence the composition, configuration, and trend of land use and land cover (LULC) changes with potential implications for surface water quality. These changes have the likelihood of generating non-point source pollution with additional environmental implications for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Monitoring the scope and trajectory of LULC change is pivotal for region-wide planning, tracking the sustainability of natural resources, and meeting the information needs of policy makers. A good comprehension of the dynamics of anthropogenic drivers (proximate and underlying) that influence such changes in LULC is important because any potential adverse change in LULC that may be inimical to sustainable water quality might be addressed at the anthropogenic driver level rather than the LULC change stage. Using a dense time stack of Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper images, a hydrologic water quality and socio-geospatial modeling framework, this study quantifies the role of anthropogenic drivers of LULC change on total suspended solids and total phosphorus concentrations in the Lower Chippewa River Watershed, Wisconsin, at three time steps-1990, 2000, and 2010. Results of the study demonstrated that proximate drivers of LULC change accounted for between 32 and 59% of the concentration and spatial distribution of total suspended solids, while the extent of phosphorus impairment attributed to the proximate drivers ranged between 31 and 42%.

Combined impacts of future climate and land use changes on discharge, nitrogen and phosphorus loads for a Canadian river basin.

Both climate and land use changes can influence water quality and quantity in different ways. Thus, for predicting future water quality and quantity trends, simulations should ideally account for both projected climate and land use changes. In this paper, land use projections and climate change scenarios were integrated with a hydrological model to estimate the relative impact of climate and land use projections on a suite of water quality and quantity endpoints for a Canadian watershed. Climatic time series representing SRES change scenario A2 were generated by downscaling the outputs of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (version 4.1.1) using a combination of quantile-quantile transformation and nearest neighbor search. The SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model was used to simulate streamflow, nitrogen and phosphorus loading under different climate and land use scenarios. Results showed that a) climate change will drive up maximum monthly streamflow, nitrate loads, and organic phosphorus loads, while decreasing organic nitrogen and nitrite loads; and b) land use changes were found to drive the same water quality/quantity variables in the same direction as climate change, except for organic nitrogen loads, for which the effects of the two stressors had a reverse impact on loading.

Impacts of LUCC on soil properties in the riparian zones of desert oasis with remote sensing data: a case study of the middle Heihe River basin, China.

Large-scale changes in land use and land cover over long timescales can induce significant variations in soil physicochemical properties, particularly in the riparian zones of arid regions. Frequent reclamation of wetlands and grasslands and intensive agricultural activity have induced significant changes in both land use/cover and soil physicochemical properties in the riparian zones of the middle Heihe River basin of China. The present study aims to explore whether land use/land cover change (LUCC) can well explain the variations in soil properties in the riparian zones of the middle Heihe River basin. To achieve this, we mapped LUCC and quantified the type of land use change using remote sensing images, topographic maps, and GIS analysis techniques. Forty-two sites were selected for soil and vegetation sampling. Then, physical and chemical experiments were employed to determine soil moisture, soil bulk density, soil pH, soil organic carbon, total nitrogen, total potassium, total phosphorous, available nitrogen, available potassium, and available phosphorous. The Independent-Samples Kruskal-Wallis Test, principal component analysis, and a scatter matrix were used to analyze the effects of LUCC on soil properties. The results indicate that the majority of the parameters investigated were affected significantly by LUCC. In particular, soil moisture and soil organic carbon can be explained well by land cover change and land use change, respectively. Furthermore, changes in soil moisture could be attributed primarily to land cover changes. Changes in soil organic carbon were correlated closely with the following land use change types: wetlands-arable, forest-grasslands, and grasslands-desert. Other parameters, including pH and total K, were also found to exhibit significant correlations with LUCC. However, changes in soil nutrients were shown to be induced most probably by human agricultural activity (i.e. fertilize, irrigation, tillage, etc.), rather than by simple conversions from one land use/cover types to the others.

Estimating impacts of land use on groundwater quality using trilinear analysis.

Groundwater is connected to the landscape above and is thus affected by the overlaying land uses. This study evaluated the impacts of land uses upon groundwater quality using trilinear analysis. Trilinear analysis is a display of experimental data in a triangular graph. Groundwater quality data collected from agricultural, septic tank, forest, and wastewater land uses for a 6-year period were used for the analysis. Results showed that among the three nitrogen species (i.e., nitrate and nitrite (NO(x)), dissolved organic nitrogen (DON), and total organic nitrogen (TON)), NO(x) had a high percentage and was a dominant species in the groundwater beneath the septic tank lands, whereas TON was a major species in groundwater beneath the forest lands. Among the three phosphorus species, namely the particulate phosphorus (PP), dissolved ortho phosphorus (PO4(3-)) and dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP), there was a high percentage of PP in the groundwater beneath the septic tank, forest, and agricultural lands. In general, Ca was a dominant cation in the groundwater beneath the septic tank lands, whereas Na was a dominant cation in the groundwater beneath the forest lands. For the three major anions (i.e., F(-), Cl(-), and SO4(2-)), F(-) accounted for <1% of the total anions in the groundwater beneath the forest, wastewater, and agricultural lands. Impacts of land uses on groundwater Cd and Cr distributions were not profound. This study suggests that trilinear analysis is a useful technique to characterize the relationship between land use and groundwater quality.

Managing urban nutrient biogeochemistry for sustainable urbanization.

Urban ecosystems are unique in the sense that human activities are the major drivers of biogeochemical processes. Along with the demographic movement into cities, nutrients flow towards the urban zone (nutrient urbanization), causing the degradation of environmental quality and ecosystem health. In this paper, we summarize the characteristics of nutrient cycling within the urban ecosystem compared to natural ecosystems. The dynamic process of nutrient urbanization is then explored taking Xiamen city, China, as an example to examine the influence of rapid urbanization on food sourced nitrogen and phosphorus metabolism. Subsequently, the concept of a nutrient footprint and calculation method is introduced from a lifecycle perspective. Finally, we propose three system approaches to mend the broken biogeochemical cycling. Our study will contribute to a holistic solution which achieves synergies between environmental quality and food security, by integrating technologies for nutrient recovery and waste reduction.

Satellite data regarding the eutrophication response to human activities in the plateau lake Dianchi in China from 1974 to 2009.

Human activities contribute highly to water eutrophication. In this study, the relationship between human activities and water eutrophication in Dianchi Lake in China was characterized using a combination of satellite imaging, sedimentary physicochemical and meteorological data analyses. The heavy eutrophic status and algal bloom in Dianchi Lake were first observed by satellite in 1977 and 1989, respectively. The C/N ratio, an indicator of organic sources in sediments, also showed that the planktonic organic source in the sediment significantly increased beginning in 1989. The land use cover in the Dianchi basin showed that both farm lands and forests, but particularly farmlands, were reduced during the period from 1974 to 2009. The urbanized land area increased from 1974 to 2009, particularly after 2000. The effects of human activities on water eutrophication were expressed by land use cover, population, gross domestic product (GDP; separated into primary, secondary and tertiary industries) and wastewater discharge. For land use cover, farm and urbanized lands were the main sources of water nutrients; forest contributed slightly to these nutrients. For GDP, primary (correlation coefficient=0.94, P<0.001) and tertiary (correlation coefficient=0.95, P<0.001) industries were highly correlated with total nitrogen. Secondary (correlation coefficient=0.95, P<0.001) and tertiary (correlation coefficient=0.96, P<0.001) industries were highly correlated with total phosphorus. The algal bloom area was significantly correlated with wastewater discharge (correlation coefficient=0.78, P<0.005) (except industrial wastewater), which was primarily led by the non-agricultural population, from 2000 to 2009. This study suggests that the protection of water environments requires a comprehensive protection policy in addition to a unilateral protection policy.

Remote sensing imageries for land cover and water quality dynamics on the west coast of Korea.

As human activities influence land cover changes, the environment on human life such as water quality, has been impacted. In particular, huge constructions or reclamation projects are responsible for dramatic land cover changes. The Saemangeum area in South Korea has been one of the largest reclamation projects to progress nearly in two decades. In this study, Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper and Landsat-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus images were used to classify land cover types in the Saemangeum area. A change detection method was utilized to determine the impacts of the reclamation project. While wetland, grassland, and urban areas were increased, forest, water, and agricultural areas were decreased during the reclamation progress. Water quality analysis related to the land cover changes was conducted to determine the influence of reclamation construction on the environment. Chemical oxygen demand and suspended sediment variability were significantly impacted by the sea current changes after the dyke construction. On the contrary, water temperature and dissolved oxygen were affected by the seasonal influences rather than the reclamation construction. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus were influenced by the fertilizers and pesticides as a result of agricultural activity. The trends of suspended sediment from Landsat images were similar with those from the ground observation sites and also impacted by the dyke construction.

River loads of suspended solids, nitrogen, phosphorus and herbicides delivered to the Great Barrier Reef lagoon.

Degradation of coastal ecosystems in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) lagoon, Australia, has been linked with increased land-based runoff of suspended solids, nutrients and pesticides since European settlement. This study estimated the increase in river loads for all 35 GBR basins, using the best available estimates of pre-European and current loads derived from catchment modelling and monitoring. The mean-annual load to the GBR lagoon for (i) total suspended solids has increased by 5.5 times to 17,000ktonnes/year, (ii) total nitrogen by 5.7 times to 80,000tonnes/year, (iii) total phosphorus by 8.9 times to 16,000tonnes/year, and (iv) PSII herbicides is 30,000kg/year. The increases in river loads differ across the 10 pollutants and 35 basins examined, reflecting differences in surface runoff, urbanisation, deforestation, agricultural practices, mining and retention by reservoirs. These estimates will facilitate target setting for water quality and desired ecosystem states, and enable prioritisation of critical sources for management.

Nursing's leadership in positioning human health at the core of urban sustainability.

The United Nations predicts that by 2050 nearly three fourths of the world's population will live in urban areas, including cities. People are attracted to cities because these urban areas offer diverse opportunities, including the availability of goods and services and a higher quality of life. Cities, however, may not be sustainable with this population boom. To address sustainability, urban developers and engineers are building green structures, and businesses are creating products that are safe for the environment. Additionally, efforts are needed to place human health at the core of urban sustainability. Without human health, cities will not survive for future generations. Nursing is the discipline that can place human health in this position. Nursing's initiatives throughout history are efforts of sustainability-improving human health within the physical, economic, and social environments. Therefore, nursing must take a leadership role to ensure that human health is at the core of urban sustainability.

Indigenous health part 1: determinants and disease patterns.

The world's almost 400 million Indigenous people have low standards of health. This poor health is associated with poverty, malnutrition, overcrowding, poor hygiene, environmental contamination, and prevalent infections. Inadequate clinical care and health promotion, and poor disease prevention services aggravate this situation. Some Indigenous groups, as they move from traditional to transitional and modern lifestyles, are rapidly acquiring lifestyle diseases, such as obesity, cardiovascular disease, and type 2 diabetes, and physical, social, and mental disorders linked to misuse of alcohol and of other drugs. Correction of these inequities needs increased awareness, political commitment, and recognition rather than governmental denial and neglect of these serious and complex problems. Indigenous people should be encouraged, trained, and enabled to become increasingly involved in overcoming these challenges.

Recent land cover history and nutrient retention in riparian wetlands.

Wetland ecosystems are profoundly affected by altered nutrient and sediment loads received from anthropogenic activity in their surrounding watersheds. Our objective was to compare a gradient of agricultural and urban land cover history during the period from 1949 to 1997, with plant and soil nutrient concentrations in, and sediment deposition to, riparian wetlands in a rapidly urbanizing landscape. We observed that recent agricultural land cover was associated with increases in Nitrogen (N) and Phosphorus (P) concentrations in a native wetland plant species. Conversely, recent urban land cover appeared to alter receiving wetland environmental conditions by increasing the relative availability of P versus N, as reflected in an invasive, but not a native, plant species. In addition, increases in surface soil Fe content suggests recent inputs of terrestrial sediments associated specifically with increasing urban land cover. The observed correlation between urban land cover and riparian wetland plant tissue and surface soil nutrient concentrations and sediment deposition, suggest that urbanization specifically enhances the suitability of riparian wetland habitats for the invasive species Japanese stiltgrass [Microstegium vimenium (Trinius) A. Camus].

Modeling phosphorus in the Lake Allatoona watershed using SWAT: II. Effect of land use change.

Lake Allatoona is a large reservoir northeast of metropolitan Atlanta, GA, threatened by excessive algal growth. We used the calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models developed in our companion paper to estimate the annual P load to Lake Allatoona in 1992 and in 2001 after significant changes occurred in land use. Land use data in 1992 and 2001 from the Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics (MRLC) Consortium showed that forest land use decreased during this period by about 20%, urban land use increased by about 225%, and pasture land uses increased by about 50%. Simulation results showed that the P load to Lake Allatoona increased from 176.5 to 207.3 Mg, which were 87.8% and 103.1%, respectively, of the total P (TP) annual cap (201 Mg) set by the Georgia Environmental Protection Division (GAEPD) for discharge into Lake Allatoona. In the early 1990s, the greatest sources of the TP load to Lake Allatoona (and their percentages of the total load) were pasture (33.6%), forest (27.5%), and point sources (25.0%). Urban land uses contributed about 6.0% and row-crop agriculture contributed about 6.8%. A decade later, the greatest two TP sources were pasture (52.7%) and urban (20.9%) land uses. Point-source P loads decreased significantly to 11.6%. Permit limits on poultry processing plants reduced the point-source P loads, but increasing urban and pasture land uses increased nonpoint sources of P. To achieve further reductions in the P load to Lake Allatoona, contributions from pasture and urban nonpoint sources will need to be addressed.