Methods for interpolating missing data in aerobiological databases.

Missing data is a common problem in scientific research. The availability of extensive environmental time series is usually laborious and difficult, and sometimes unexpected failures are not detected until samples are processed. Consequently, environmental databases frequently have some gaps with missing data in it. Applying an interpolation method before starting the data analysis can be a good solution in order to complete this missing information. Nevertheless, there are several different approaches whose accuracy should be considered and compared. In this study, data from 6 aerobiological sampling stations were used as an example of environmental data series to assess the accuracy of different interpolation methods. For that, observed daily pollen/spore concentration data series were randomly removed, interpolated by using different methods and then, compared with the observed data to measure the errors produced. Different periods, gap sizes, interpolation methods and bioaerosols were considered in order to check their influence in the interpolation accuracy. The moving mean interpolation method obtained the highest success rate as average. By using this method, a success rate of the 70% was obtained when the risk classes used in the alert systems of the pollen information platforms were taken into account. In general, errors were mostly greater when there were high oscillations in the concentrations of biotic particles during consecutive days. That is the reason why the pre-peak and peak periods showed the highest interpolation errors. The errors were also higher when gaps longer than 5 days were considered. So, for completing long periods of missing data, it would be advisable to test other methodological approaches. A new Variation Index based on the behaviour of the pollen/spore season (measurement of the variability of the concentrations every 2 consecutive days) was elaborated, which allows to estimate the potential error before the interpolation is applied.

Correlation between airborne Olea europaea pollen concentrations and levels of the major allergen Ole e 1 in Córdoba, Spain, 2012-2014.

Olea europaea L. pollen is the second-largest cause of pollinosis in the southern Iberian Peninsula. Airborne-pollen monitoring networks provide essential data on pollen dynamics over a given study area. Recent research, however, has shown that airborne pollen levels alone do not always provide a clear indicator of actual exposure to aeroallergens. This study sought to evaluate correlations between airborne concentrations of olive pollen and Ole e 1 allergen levels in Córdoba (southern Spain), in order to determine whether atmospheric pollen concentrations alone are sufficient to chart changes in hay fever symptoms. The influence of major weather-related variables on local airborne pollen and allergen levels was also examined. Monitoring was carried out from 2012 to 2014. Pollen sampling was performed using a Hirst-type sampler, following the protocol recommended by the Spanish Aerobiology Network. A multi-vial cyclone sampler was used to collect aeroallergens, and allergenic particles were quantified by ELISA assay. Significant positive correlations were found between daily airborne allergen levels and atmospheric pollen concentrations, although there were occasions when allergen was detected before and after the pollen season and in the absence of airborne pollen. The correlation between the two was irregular, and pollen potency displayed year-on-year variations and did not necessarily match pollen-season-intensity.

Airborne pollen trends in the Iberian Peninsula.

Airborne pollen monitoring is an effective tool for studying the reproductive phenology of anemophilous plants, an important bioindicator of plant behavior. Recent decades have revealed a trend towards rising airborne pollen concentrations in Europe, attributing these trends to an increase in anthropogenic CO2 emissions and temperature. However, the lack of water availability in southern Europe may prompt a trend towards lower flowering intensity, especially in herbaceous plants. Here we show variations in flowering intensity by analyzing the Annual Pollen Index (API) of 12 anemophilous taxa across 12 locations in the Iberian Peninsula, over the last two decades, and detecting the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Results revealed differences in the distribution and flowering intensity of anemophilous species. A negative correlation was observed between airborne pollen concentrations and winter averages of the NAO index. This study confirms that changes in rainfall in the Mediterranean region, attributed to climate change, have an important impact on the phenology of plants.

A new method for determining the sources of airborne particles.

Air quality is a major issue for humans owing to the fact that the content of particles in the atmosphere has multiple implications for life quality, ecosystem dynamics and environment. Scientists are therefore particularly interested in discovering the origin of airborne particles. A new method has been developed to model the relationship between the emission surface and the total amount of airborne particles at a given distance, employing olive pollen and olive groves as examples. A third-degree polynomial relationship between the air particles at a particular point and the distance from the source was observed, signifying that the nearest area to a point is not that which is most correlated with its air features. This work allows the origin of airborne particles to be discovered and could be implemented in different disciplines related to atmospheric aerosol, thus providing a new approach with which to discover the dynamics of airborne particles.

Airborne plane-tree (Platanus hispanica) pollen distribution in the city of Córdoba, South-western Spain, and possible implications on pollen allergy.

Plane-trees are widely grown in Spain as ornaments. This taxon releases large amounts of pollen into the air and this pollen type seems to have proved implications on pollinosis. The aim of this study was to analyse airborne Platanus pollen content in the air of C6rdoba (South-western Spain) over the last 10 years, and its distribution in different areas of the city, as well as to consider possible implications regarding pollen allergies. Results revealed that Platanus pollen concentrations have been at their highest over the last 5 years. Within the city, the lowest pollen concentrations were in Northern areas of the city. Nevertheless, concentrations high enough to be of risk are reached over the whole city. All the patients studied presented symptoms during the Platanus pollen season. We can therefore conclude that plane pollen presents a risk for the whole city although symptoms are more intense and persistent in districts with a higher number of plane-trees. Platanus allergy is a particular problem for city-dwellers, where these trees are commonly used as ornamentals.

Privet pollen (Ligustrum sp.) as potential cause of pollinosis in the city of Cordoba, south-west Spain.

BACKGROUND: Privet pollen rarely accounts for more than 1% of the annual total of daily pollen concentrations measured in a city; however in areas where these trees are widely used as ornamentals the amounts collected may be high enough to cause allergy symptoms. METHODS: Air samples taken with volumetric particle samplers Lanzoni VPPS 1000 (Lanzoni s.r.l., Bologna, Italy) show that there are differences in privet pollen concentrations measured in neighbourhoods with a high incidence of privet trees and in those taken at some distance from the source of emission. RESULTS: The results suggest that differences are due to the short dispersal range of the pollen grains once released from the plant, resulting from both the entomophilous nature of the plant and the large size of the pollen grains. Urban design, moreover, may play an important role in impeding pollen grain dispersion if the air cannot flow freely through long, narrow avenues. Another important consideration is that the last stages of the flowering period of privet overlaps with the flowering period of olive trees, the main allergen in the area. The fact that the two pollen types share common allergens means that there may be a cross-reaction between olive tree pollen and privet pollen. CONCLUSIONS: Privet pollen should be considered as a potential causative agent of local allergy problems in areas where its presence is extensive and is in combination with other allergens.

Model for forecasting Olea europaea L. airborne pollen in South-West Andalusia, Spain.

Data on predicted average and maximum airborne pollen concentrations and the dates on which these maximum values are expected are of undoubted value to allergists and allergy sufferers, as well as to agronomists. This paper reports on the development of predictive models for calculating total annual pollen output, on the basis of pollen and weather data compiled over the last 19 years (1982-2000) for Córdoba (Spain). Models were tested in order to predict the 2000 pollen season; in addition, and in view of the heavy rainfall recorded in spring 2000, the 1982-1998 data set was used to test the model for 1999. The results of the multiple regression analysis show that the variables exerting the greatest influence on the pollen index were rainfall in March and temperatures over the months prior to the flowering period. For prediction of maximum values and dates on which these values might be expected, the start of the pollen season was used as an additional independent variable. Temperature proved the best variable for this prediction. Results improved when the 5-day moving average was taken into account. Testing of the predictive model for 1999 and 2000 yielded fairly similar results. In both cases, the difference between expected and observed pollen data was no greater than 10%. However, significant differences were recorded between forecast and expected maximum and minimum values, owing to the influence of rainfall during the flowering period.

The role of temperature in the onset of the Olea europaea L. pollen season in southwestern Spain.

Temperature is one of the main factors affecting the flowering of Mediterranean trees. In the case of Olea europaea L., a low-temperature period prior to bud development is essential to interrupt dormancy. After that, and once a base temperature is reached, the plant accumulates heat until flowering starts. Different methods of obtaining the best-forecast model for the onset date of the O. europaea pollen season, using temperature as the predictive parameter, are proposed in this paper. An 18-year pollen and climatic data series (1982-1999) from Cordoba (Spain) was used to perform the study. First a multiple-regression analysis using 15-day average temperatures from the period prior to flowering time was tested. Second, three heat-summation methods were used, determining the the quantities heat units (HU): accumulated daily mean temperature after deducting a threshold, growing degree-days (GDD): proposed by Snyder [J Agric Meteorol 35:353-358 (1985)] as a measure of physiological time, and accumulated maximum temperature. In the first two, the optimum base temperature selected for heat accumulation was 12.5 degrees C. The multiple-regression equation for 1999 gives a 7-day delay from the observed date. The most accurate results were obtained with the GDD method, with a difference of only 4.7 days between predicted and observed dates. The average heat accumulation expressed as GDD was 209.9 degrees C days. The HU method also gives good results, with no significant statistical differences between predictions and observations.

Allergenic pollen in the subdesert areas of the Iberian peninsula.

The yearly distribution of Artemisia and Chenopodiaceae-Amaranthaceae, two of the most common types of pollen in a rural area located in the southeastern part of the Iberian peninsula, was studied over a 3-year period (1995-1997). The particular bioclimatic conditions of the area, such as its subdesert climate, extreme dryness and high mountain location (1,000 m above sea level), have led to the adaptation and abundance of these species in this area. They usually flower in the second half of the year, and are the main pollen types collected in the samples in that time period. The Artemisia pollen levels recorded are the highest in Spain, since there are several species in the area which flower at different times. Chenopodiaceae-Amaranthaceae pollen counts are also very high. The severity of both pollen types was also analyzed. The height of the sampler was taken into account because the quantities at human height can be considerably higher than those recorded at 20 m off the ground. It was concluded that both pollen types should be considered some of the main causes of allergy in this area.

Meteorological phenomena affecting the presence of solid particles suspended in the air during winter.

Winter is not traditionally considered to be a risky season for people who suffer from pollen allergies. However, increasing numbers of people are showing symptoms in winter. This prompted our investigation into the levels of solid material in the air, and some of the meteorological phenomena that allow their accumulation. This study showed a possible relationship between the phenomenon of thermal inversion, which occurs when very low temperatures, cloudless skies and atmospheric calms coincide, and an increase in the concentration of solid material in the atmosphere. Frequently, this situation is associated with other predictable phenomena such as fog, dew and frost. This may allow a warning system to be derived for urban pollution episodes. The effect caused by parameters such as wind and rainfall was also analysed. Solid material was differentiated into non-biological material from natural and non-natural sources (e.g. soot, dust, sand, diesel exhaust particles, partially burnt residues) and biological material. The latter mainly comprises pollen grains and fungal spores. Owing to its abundance and importance as a causal agent of winter allergies, Cupressaceae pollen was considered separately.

Meteorological factors affecting daily urticaceae pollen counts in southwest Spain.

The influence of meteorological factors on daily Urticaceae pollen counts were studied in Córdoba (southwest Spain) in 1996 and 1997. The daily Urticaceae pollen concentrations were obtained by using a Hirst-type volumetric sampler, and meteorological data were obtained from the Córdoba airport, located near the sampling site. The highest correlation between pollen concentration and meteorological parameters was obtained during non-rainy seasons. Temperature was found to be the most important meteorological parameter influencing pollen counts in spring, as temperature is the main reason for the increase of pollen concentration in the atmosphere. In autumn, humidity was another important parameter influencing pollen counts. Rain, however, did not appear to be significant. The influence of the pollen concentration of the 2 previous days and the pollen concentration of the previous day has been studied. During periods with low precipitation, the pollen concentration of the previous day was a useful predictor of Urticaceae pollen concentrations for the following day.

Effects of sampling height and climatic conditions in aerobiological studies.

This study examined the effect of sampling height on the measurement of airborne particles (pollen grains) common in the sampling area in the outskirts of the city of Córdoba, Spain. The effect of certain meteorological parameters on variations in concentration at different heights were also examined. The study was carried out throughout 1991 and 1992 using two Hirst samplers placed at two different heights (1.5 and 15 m) at the Faculty of Science at the University of Córdoba. The statistical results indicated that there were significant differences in the concentrations obtained at different heights, the values at 1.5 m being generally higher with the exception of pollen belonging to the Urticaceae family. The pollen counts of this type were greater at the higher elevation, probably due to the small size of the pollen, especially in the Urtica membranacea species, and to the convective phenomena in this climatic zone in spring, the season in which this species blooms. When these height comparison studies were conducted, the importance of the effect of placing the sampler in relation to a nearby building was also observed. Higher pollen concentrations were detected when the lower sampler was located on the leeward side. The meteorological parameters studied had some influence on the vertical dispersion of the pollen, although the percentage of variation according to height was very small, probably due to the short duration of the study. However, a certain relation between the differences in concentration per height and the degree of atmospheric stability was observed.

Diurnal variation of airborne pollen at two different heights.

The diurnal variation in airborne pollen concentrations in the air of Córdoba at two different heights (1.5 m and 15 m) was studied during 2 consecutive years with the help of two Hirst volumetric samplers. According to pollen percentages obtained every hour, we determined whether every taxon studied presented a morning or an afternoon pattern, and whether this model was homogeneous (with a slight difference between the time of maximum and minimum reading) or heterogeneous (with a large difference between the two readings). We observed that the taxa that had many species in the area, such as Plantago, Poaceae, and Chenopodiaceae-Amaranthaceae showed a homogeneous model, while those taxa with few species present, such as Cupressaceae and Urticaceae showed a more heterogeneous model. Furthermore, the pattern of the plants with a large presence in the study area was more heterogeneous at 1.5 m because the pollen collected at this height is released from anthers. In the sampler placed at 15 m we detected airborne pollen, found that the curves were smoother and also observed a slight time delay for the taxa that were highly present in the area of study.