An intake prior for the Bayesian analysis of plutonium and uranium exposures in an epidemiology study.

In Bayesian inference, the initial knowledge regarding the value of a parameter, before additional data are considered, is represented as a prior probability distribution. This paper describes the derivation of a prior distribution of intake that was used for the Bayesian analysis of plutonium and uranium worker doses in a recent epidemiology study. The chosen distribution is log-normal with a geometric standard deviation of 6 and a median value that is derived for each worker based on the duration of the work history and the number of reported acute intakes. The median value is a function of the work history and a constant related to activity in air concentration, M, which is derived separately for uranium and plutonium. The value of M is based primarily on measurements of plutonium and uranium in air derived from historical personal air sampler (PAS) data. However, there is significant uncertainty on the value of M that results from paucity of PAS data and from extrapolating these measurements to actual intakes. This paper compares posterior and prior distributions of intake and investigates the sensitivity of the Bayesian analyses to the assumed value of M. It is found that varying M by a factor of 10 results in a much smaller factor of 2 variation in mean intake and lung dose for both plutonium and uranium. It is concluded that if a log-normal distribution is considered to adequately represent worker intakes, then the Bayesian posterior distribution of dose is relatively insensitive to the value assumed of M.

A Bayesian analysis of uncertainties on lung doses resulting from occupational exposures to uranium.

In a recent epidemiological study, Bayesian estimates of lung doses were calculated in order to determine a possible association between lung dose and lung cancer incidence resulting from occupational exposures to uranium. These calculations, which produce probability distributions of doses, used the human respiratory tract model (HRTM) published by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) with a revised particle transport clearance model. In addition to the Bayesian analyses, point estimates (PEs) of doses were also provided for that study using the existing HRTM as it is described in ICRP Publication 66. The PEs are to be used in a preliminary analysis of risk. To explain the differences between the PEs and Bayesian analysis, in this paper the methodology was applied to former UK nuclear workers who constituted a subset of the study cohort. The resulting probability distributions of lung doses calculated using the Bayesian methodology were compared with the PEs obtained for each worker. Mean posterior lung doses were on average 8-fold higher than PEs and the uncertainties on doses varied over a wide range, being greater than two orders of magnitude for some lung tissues. It is shown that it is the prior distributions of the parameters describing absorption from the lungs to blood that are responsible for the large difference between posterior mean doses and PEs. Furthermore, it is the large prior uncertainties on these parameters that are mainly responsible for the large uncertainties on lung doses. It is concluded that accurate determination of the chemical form of inhaled uranium, as well as the absorption parameter values for these materials, is important for obtaining unbiased estimates of lung doses from occupational exposures to uranium for epidemiological studies. Finally, it should be noted that the inferences regarding the PEs described here apply only to the assessments of cases provided for the epidemiological study, where central estimates of dose were sought. Approved dosimetry service assessments of exposures are unlikely to yield significant underestimates, as pessimistic assumptions of lung solubility would almost always be used.

Dosimetric models used in the Alpha-Risk project to quantify exposure of uranium miners to radon gas and its progeny.

The European project Alpha-Risk aims to quantify the cancer and non-cancer risks associated with multiple chronic radiation exposures by epidemiological studies, organ dose calculation and risk assessment. In the framework of this project, mathematical models have been applied to the organ dosimetry of uranium miners who are internally exposed to radon and its progeny as well as to long-lived radionuclides present in the uranium ore. This paper describes the methodology and the dosimetric models used to calculate the absorbed doses to specific organs arising from exposure to radon and its progeny in the uranium mines. The results of dose calculations are also presented.

Ro 32-0432, a selective and orally active inhibitor of protein kinase C prevents T-cell activation.

Several lines of circumstantial evidence support the assumption that protein kinase C (PKC) activation together with elevated levels of cytosolic Ca++ are necessary for T-cell activation and proliferation in response to a physiological stimulus, i.e., MHC class II restricted antigen presentation. By using a potent, cell-permeable and selective inhibitor of PKC, Ro 32-0432, we have tested this hypothesis. Ro 32-0432 inhibits interleukin-2 (IL-2) secretion, IL-2 receptor expression in, and proliferation of, peripheral human T-cells stimulated with phorbol ester together with phytohemagglutin or anti-CD3, but does not inhibit IL-2 induced proliferation in cells already stimulated to express IL-2 receptors. Proliferation of the influenza peptide antigen HA 307-319-specific human T-cell clone (HA27) after exposure to antigen-pulsed autologous presenting cells was also inhibited by Ro 32-0432. Oral administration of Ro 32-0432 inhibited subsequent phorbol ester-induced edema in rats demonstrating the systemic efficacy of the compound to inhibit PKC-driven responses. Induction of more physiologically T-cell driven responses such as host vs. graft responses and the secondary paw swelling in adjuvant-induced arthritis were also inhibited by Ro 32-0432. These data demonstrate the crucial role for PKC in T-cell activation and that selective p.o. bioavailable PKC inhibitors are efficacious in preventing T-cell driven chronic inflammatory responses in vivo. Inhibition of PKC represents an important mechanistic approach to prevent T-cell activation and compounds of this class may have important therapeutic applicability to chronic inflammatory and autoimmune diseases.