Computed tomography scan radiation and brain cancer incidence.

BACKGROUND: Computed tomography (CT) scans make substantial contributions to low-dose ionizing radiation exposures, raising concerns about excess cancers caused by diagnostic radiation. METHODS: Deidentified medicare records for all Australians aged 0-19 years between 1985-2005 were linked to national death and cancer registrations to 2012. The National Cancer Institute CT program was used to estimate radiation doses to the brain from CT exposures in 1985-2005, Poisson regression was used to model the dependence of brain cancer incidence on brain radiation dose, which lagged by 2 years to minimize reverse causation bias. RESULTS: Of 10 524 842 young Australians, 611 544 were CT-exposed before the age of 20 years, with a mean cumulative brain dose of 44 milligrays (mGy) at an average follow-up of 13.5 years after the 2-year lag period. 4472 were diagnosed with brain cancer, of whom only 237 had been CT-exposed. Brain cancer incidence increased with radiation dose to the brain, with an excess relative risk of 0.8 (95% CI 0.57-1.06) per 100 mGy. Approximately 6391 (95% CI 5255, 8155) persons would need to be exposed to cause 1 extra brain cancer. CONCLUSIONS: For brain tumors that follow CT exposures in childhood by more than 2 years, we estimate that 40% (95% CI 29%-50%) are attributable to CT Radiation and not due to reverse causation. However, because of relatively low rates of CT exposure in Australia, only 3.7% (95% CI 2.3%-5.4%) of all brain cancers are attributable to CT scans. The population-attributable fraction will be greater in countries with higher rates of pediatric scanning.

Cohort profile: The Australian Paediatric Exposure to Radiation Cohort (Aust-PERC).

Although the carcinogenic effects of high-dose radiation are well-established, the risks at low doses, such as from diagnostic X-rays, are less well understood. Children are susceptible to radiation induced cancers, and in the last decade, several cohort studies have reported increased cancer risks following computed tomography (CT) scans in childhood. However, cohort studies can be limited by insufficient follow-up, indication bias, reverse causation, or by lack of organ doses from CT scans or other exposures. Aust-PERC is a retrospective cohort designed to study the effects of low-dose medical radiation exposure, primarily from CT scans, in young Australians. The cohort was ascertained using deidentified billing records from patients who were aged 0-19 years while enrolled in Medicare (Australia's universal healthcare system) between 1985 and 2005. All procedures billed to Medicare in this age/time window that involved low-dose radiation were identified, and persons without such procedures were flagged as unexposed. The Aust-PERC cohort has been linked, using confidential personal identifiers, to the Australian Cancer Database and the National Death Index, on two occasions (to Dec. 2007 and Dec. 2012) by the responsible government agency (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare). Deidentified Medicare service records of all radiological procedures including CT scans, nuclear medicine (NM) scans and fluoroscopy and plain X-ray procedures have been available to derive estimated radiation doses in the cohort. Records of other medical and surgical procedures, together with demographic and socioeconomic variables are being used in analyses to assess biases arising from reverse causation and confounding. After excluding patients with errant records, 11 802 846 persons remained in the baseline cohort, with an average follow-up time of 22.3 years to December 2012. There were 275 489 patients exposed to diagnostic nuclear medicine scans and 688 363 patients exposed to CT scans before age 20 and before cancer diagnosis. Between 1 January 1985 and 31 December 2012, there were 105 124 deaths and 103 505 incident cancers. Dose-response analyses based on the relevant organ doses are underway for individual cancers, and we plan to extend the follow-up for another 8 years to Dec 2020. Analyses using this very large Aust-PERC cohort, with extended follow-up, will help to resolve international uncertainties about the causal role of diagnostic medical radiation as a cause of cancer.