Equity-Efficiency Trade-offs Associated With Alternative Approaches to Deceased Donor Kidney Allocation: A Patient-level Simulation.

BACKGROUND: The number of patients waiting to receive a kidney transplant outstrips the supply of donor organs. We sought to quantify trade-offs associated with different approaches to deceased donor kidney allocation in terms of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), costs, and access to transplantation. METHODS: An individual patient simulation model was developed to compare 5 different approaches to kidney allocation, including the 2006 UK National Kidney Allocation Scheme (NKAS) and a QALY maximization approach designed to maximize health gains from a limited supply of donor organs. We used various sources of patient-level data to develop multivariable regression models to predict survival, health state utilities, and costs. We simulated the allocation of kidneys from 2200 deceased donors to a waiting list of 5500 patients and produced estimates of total lifetime costs and QALYs for each allocation scheme. RESULTS: Among patients who received a transplant, the QALY maximization approach generated 48 045 QALYs and cost £681 million, while the 2006 NKAS generated 44 040 QALYs and cost £625 million. When also taking into consideration outcomes for patients who were not prioritized to receive a transplant, the 2006 NKAS produced higher total QALYs and costs and an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £110 741/QALY compared with the QALY maximization approach. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with the 2006 NKAS, a QALY maximization approach makes more efficient use of deceased donor kidneys but reduces access to transplantation for older patients and results in greater inequity in the distribution of health gains between patients who receive a transplant and patients who remain on the waiting list.

2018 Focused Update of the Canadian Cardiovascular Society Guidelines for the Management of Atrial Fibrillation.

The Canadian Cardiovascular Society (CCS) Atrial Fibrillation Guidelines Committee provides periodic reviews of new data to produce focused updates that address clinically important advances in atrial fibrillation (AF) management. This 2018 Focused Update addresses: (1) anticoagulation in the context of cardioversion of AF; (2) the management of antithrombotic therapy for patients with AF in the context of coronary artery disease; (3) investigation and management of subclinical AF; (4) the use of antidotes for the reversal of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants; (5) acute pharmacological cardioversion of AF; (6) catheter ablation for AF, including patients with concomitant AF and heart failure; and (7) an integrated approach to the patient with AF and modifiable cardiovascular risk factors. The recommendations were developed using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) standards. Individual studies and literature were reviewed for quality and bias; the literature review process and evidence tables are included as Supplementary Material and are available on the CCS Web site. Details of the updated recommendations are presented, along with their background and rationale. This document is linked to an updated summary of all CCS AF guidelines recommendations, from 2010 to the present 2018 Focused Update, which is provided in the Supplementary Material.

2016 Focused Update of the Canadian Cardiovascular Society Guidelines for the Management of Atrial Fibrillation.

The Canadian Cardiovascular Society (CCS) Atrial Fibrillation (AF) Guidelines Committee provides periodic reviews of new data to produce focused updates that address clinically important advances in AF management. This 2016 Focused Update deals with: (1) the management of antithrombotic therapy for AF patients in the context of the various clinical presentations of coronary artery disease; (2) real-life data with non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants; (3) the use of antidotes for the reversal of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants; (4) digoxin as a rate control agent; (5) perioperative anticoagulation management; and (6) AF surgical therapy including the prevention and treatment of AF after cardiac surgery. The recommendations were developed with the same methodology used for the initial 2010 guidelines and the 2012 and 2014 Focused Updates. Using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) standards, individual studies and literature were reviewed for quality and bias; the literature review process and evidence tables are included in the Supplementary Material, and on the CCS Web site. The section on concomitant AF and coronary artery disease was developed in collaboration with the CCS Antiplatelet Guidelines Committee. Details of the updated recommendations are presented, along with their background and rationale. This document is linked to an updated summary of all CCS AF Guidelines recommendations, from 2010 to the present 2016 Focused Update.

Trends in Prescribing Oral Anticoagulants in Canada, 2008-2014.

PURPOSE: The non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs), dabigatran, rivaroxaban, and apixaban, provide several advantages over vitamin K antagonists, such as warfarin. Little is known about the trends of prescribing OACs in Canada. In this study we analyzed changes in prescription volumes for OAC drugs since the introduction of the NOACs in Canada overall, by province and by physician specialty. METHODS: Canadian prescription volumes for warfarin, dabigatran, rivaroxaban, and apixaban from January 2008 to June 2014 were obtained from the Canadian Compuscript Audit of IMS Health Canada Inc and were analyzed by physician specialty at the national and provincial levels. Total prescriptions by indication were calculated based on data from the Canadian Disease and Therapeutic Index for all OAC indications and for each commonly prescribed dose of dabigatran (75, 110, and 150 mg), rivaroxaban (10, 15, and 20 mg), and apixaban (2.5 and 5 mg). FINDINGS: The overall number of OAC prescriptions in Canada has increased annually since 2008. With the availability of the NOACs, the proportion of total OAC prescriptions attributable to warfarin has steadily decreased, from 99% in 2010 to 67% by June 2014, and the absolute number of warfarin prescriptions has been decreasing since February 2011. The greatest decline in proportionate warfarin prescriptions was in Ontario. In general, the increase of NOAC prescriptions coincided with the introduction of provinces' reimbursement of NOAC prescription costs. The proportion of total OAC prescriptions represented by the NOACs varied by specialty, with the greatest proportionate prescribing found among orthopedic surgeons, cardiologists, and neurologists. IMPLICATIONS: Since their approval, the NOACs have represented a growing share of total OAC prescriptions in Canada. This trend is expected to continue because the NOACs are given preference over warfarin in guidelines on stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation, because of growing physician experience, and due to the emergence of potential new indications. An understanding of the current prescribing patterns will help to encourage knowledge translation and possibly influence policy/reimbursement strategies.

2014 focused update of the Canadian Cardiovascular Society Guidelines for the management of atrial fibrillation.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is an extremely common clinical problem with an important population morbidity and mortality burden. The management of AF is complex and fraught with many uncertain and contentious issues, which are being addressed by extensive ongoing basic and clinical research. The Canadian Cardiovascular Society AF Guidelines Committee produced an extensive set of evidence-based AF management guidelines in 2010 and updated them in the areas of anticoagulation and rate/rhythm control in 2012. In late 2013, the committee judged that sufficient new information regarding AF management had become available since 2012 to warrant an update to the Canadian Cardiovascular Society AF Guidelines. After extensive evaluation of the new evidence, the committee has updated the guidelines for: (1) stroke prevention principles; (2) anticoagulation of AF patients with chronic kidney disease; (3) detection of AF in patients with stroke; (4) investigation and management of subclinical AF; (5) left atrial appendage closure in stroke prevention; (6) emergency department management of AF; (7) periprocedural anticoagulation management; and (8) rate and rhythm control including catheter ablation. This report presents the details of the updated recommendations, along with their background and rationale. In addition, a complete set of presently applicable recommendations, those that have been updated and those that remain in force from previous guideline versions, is provided in the Supplementary Material.

Is computer aided detection (CAD) cost effective in screening mammography? A model based on the CADET II study.

BACKGROUND: Single reading with computer aided detection (CAD) is an alternative to double reading for detecting cancer in screening mammograms. The aim of this study is to investigate whether the use of a single reader with CAD is more cost-effective than double reading. METHODS: Based on data from the CADET II study, the cost-effectiveness of single reading with CAD versus double reading was measured in terms of cost per cancer detected. Cost (Pound (£), year 2007/08) of single reading with CAD versus double reading was estimated assuming a health and social service perspective and a 7 year time horizon. As the equipment cost varies according to the unit size a separate analysis was conducted for high, average and low volume screening units. One-way sensitivity analyses were performed by varying the reading time, equipment and assessment cost, recall rate and reader qualification. RESULTS: CAD is cost increasing for all sizes of screening unit. The introduction of CAD is cost-increasing compared to double reading because the cost of CAD equipment, staff training and the higher assessment cost associated with CAD are greater than the saving in reading costs. The introduction of single reading with CAD, in place of double reading, would produce an additional cost of £227 and £253 per 1,000 women screened in high and average volume units respectively. In low volume screening units, the high cost of purchasing the equipment will results in an additional cost of £590 per 1,000 women screened.One-way sensitivity analysis showed that the factors having the greatest effect on the cost-effectiveness of CAD with single reading compared with double reading were the reading time and the reader's professional qualification (radiologist versus advanced practitioner). CONCLUSIONS: Without improvements in CAD effectiveness (e.g. a decrease in the recall rate) CAD is unlikely to be a cost effective alternative to double reading for mammography screening in UK. This study provides updated estimates of CAD costs in a full-field digital system and assessment cost for women who are re-called after initial screening. However, the model is highly sensitive to various parameters e.g. reading time, reader qualification, and equipment cost.

Think twice before you book? Modelling the choice of public vs private dentist in a choice experiment.

This study concerns the choice of primary dental service provider by consumers. If the health service delivery system allows individuals to choose between public-care providers or if complementary private services are available, it is typically assumed that utilisation is a three-stage decision process. The patient first makes a decision to seek care, and then chooses the service provider. The final stage, involving decisions over the amount and form of treatment, is not considered here. The paper reports a discrete choice experiment (DCE) designed to evaluate attributes affecting individuals' choice of dental-care provider. The feasibility of the DCE approach in modelling consumers' choice in the context of non-acute need for dental care is assessed. The aim is to test whether a separate two-stage logit, a multinomial logit, or a nested logit best fits the choice process of consumers. A nested logit model of indirect utility functions is estimated and inclusive value (IV) constraints are tested for modelling implications. The results show that non-trading behaviour has an impact on the choice of appropriate modelling technique, but is to some extent dependent on the choice of scenarios offered. It is concluded that for traders multinomial logit is appropriate, whereas for non-traders and on average the nested logit is the method supported by the analyses. The consistent finding in all subgroup analyses is that the traditional two-stage decision process is found to be implausible in the context of consumer's choice of dental-care provider.

Interrelationships between the precautionary principle, prediction strategies, and sustainable use of the planet.

In this article, I examine the relationships between new concepts of human activity in the environment and several prevention strategies used to plot a course toward sustainable use. Natural capitalism and industrial ecology are relatively new concepts that provide a framework for environmental management. Although the precautionary principle puts into policy a determination to prevent environmental damage before it occurs, natural capitalism and industrial ecology go beyond the prevention of environmental damage to the optimization of environmental interactions. The risk assessment tools necessary for preventive management continue to be essential. However, additional tools are needed to go beyond prevention to optimization. A holistic, scientific approach to the human place within the environment is needed, including both interdisciplinary and large-scale research.