Morphomic Factors Associated With Complete Response to Neoadjuvant Therapy in Esophageal Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: In patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) followed by surgery for locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), patients with a pathologic complete response (pCR) have the greatest benefit. The purpose of this study was to identify morphomic factors obtained from pretreatment computed tomography scans associated with a pCR in ESCC. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed patients with ESCC treated with nCRT who underwent esophagectomy between 2006 and 2016. Clinical and morphomic characteristics pre-nCRT were analyzed to identify factors associated with pCR using univariate and multivariable analyses. RESULTS: There were 183 patients with ESCC included in this study, and 45 (24.6%) patients achieved pCR. The overall survival in patients with pCR was better than that in patients without pCR (5.8 years vs 1.2 years; P < .001). On univariate analysis, increased age, radiation dose greater than or equal to 4000 cGy, and larger subcutaneous adipose tissue area were correlated with pCR. On multivariable logistic regression, increased age (odds ratio, 1.53; P = .03), radiation dose greater than or equal to 4000 cGy (odds ratio, 2.19; P = .04), and larger dorsal muscle group normal-density area (odds ratio, 1.59; P = .03) were independently associated with pCR. CONCLUSIONS: Increased age, radiation dose greater than or equal to 4000 cGy, and larger dorsal muscle group normal-density area were significantly associated with pCR. These factors may be useful in determining which patients are most likely to benefit from nCRT followed by esophagectomy.

Predictors of pathological complete response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUNDS: In this study, we evaluated the factors associated with a pathologic complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). METHODS: Pre-nCRT parameters in ESCC patients treated between 1999 and 2006 were analyzed to identify predictors of pCR. All patients received 5-fluorouracil/cisplatin-based chemotherapy and external beam radiation followed by scheduled esophagectomy. Variables were analyzed using univariate and multivariate analyses with pCR as the dependent variable. Estimated pCR rate was calculated with a regression model. RESULTS: Fifty-nine (20.9%) of 282 patients achieved pCR. Univariate analysis identified four patient factors (age, smoking status, drinking history and hypertension), one pre-nCRT parameter (tumor length) as significant predictors of pCR (all P <0.05). On multivariate analysis, tumor length ≤3 cm (favorable, odds ratio (OR): 4.85, P = 0.001), patient age >55 years (favorable, OR: 1.95, P = 0.035), and being a non-smoker (favorable, OR: 3.6, P = 0.003) were independent predictors of pCR. The estimated pCR rates based on a logistic regression including those three predictors were 71%, 35 to approximately 58%, 19 to approximately 38%, and 12% for patients with 3, 2, 1 and 0 predictors, respectively. CONCLUSION: Age, smoking habit and tumor length were important pCR predictors. These factors may be used to predict outcomes for ESCC patients receiving nCRT, to develop risk-adapted treatment strategies, and to select patients who could participate in trials on new therapies.