Quantification and feed to food transfer of total and inorganic arsenic from a commercial seaweed feed.

Seaweed has a long-associated history of use as a supplemented livestock feed, providing nutrients and vitamins essential to maintaining animal health. Some species of seaweed, particularly the fucoids, are well-known accumulators of the metalloid arsenic (As). Arsenic toxicity to humans is well established even at low exposure levels and is considered a class 1 human carcinogen. As mankind's appetite for livestock produce continues to grow unabated, there is a concern that consumption of livestock produce reared on a diet supplemented with seaweed animal feed (SAF) may pose a threat to the human population due to potentially high levels of As present in seaweed. To address this concern and provide end users, including industry, consumers, policymakers and regulators with information on the exposure associated with As in commercial seaweed animal feed, the estimated daily intake (EDI) of As was calculated to evaluate potential human exposure levels. Using As data from a commercially available seaweed meal over a five-year period (2012-2017) a population exposure assessment was carried out. A Monte Carlo simulation model was developed to characterise the feed to food transfer of As from animal feed to animal produce such as beef, milk, chicken, and eggs. The model examined initial levels in seaweed, inclusion rate in animal feed, animal feeding rates and potential transfer to food produced from a supplemented diet of SAF. The analysis of seaweed animal feed showed that inorganic As was a small fraction of the total As found in seaweed meal (80:1). Statistical analysis found significant differences in the concentration of As in seaweed animal feed depending on the grain size (p < 0.001), with higher As concentrations in smaller sized grain fractions. Due to several detoxification steps and subsequent rapid excretion from the bodies of livestock, a very low carryover rate of As compounds from seaweed animal feed into livestock produce was observed. The EDI calculated in this study for the livestock produce evaluated at the 95th confidence interval was <0.01% of suggested safe levels of inorganic As intake. The threat to the general population as a result of consumption of livestock products reared on a diet consisting of SAF is found to be negligible.

Development and Application of a Probabilistic Risk-Benefit Assessment Model for Infant Feeding Integrating Microbiological, Nutritional, and Chemical Components.

A probabilistic and interdisciplinary risk-benefit assessment (RBA) model integrating microbiological, nutritional, and chemical components was developed for infant milk, with the objective of predicting the health impact of different scenarios of consumption. Infant feeding is a particular concern of interest in RBA as breast milk and powder infant formula have both been associated with risks and benefits related to chemicals, bacteria, and nutrients, hence the model considers these three facets. Cronobacter sakazakii, dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (dl-PCB), and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) were three risk/benefit factors selected as key issues in microbiology, chemistry, and nutrition, respectively. The present model was probabilistic with variability and uncertainty separated using a second-order Monte Carlo simulation process. In this study, advantages and limitations of undertaking probabilistic and interdisciplinary RBA are discussed. In particular, the probabilistic technique was found to be powerful in dealing with missing data and to translate assumptions into quantitative inputs while taking uncertainty into account. In addition, separation of variability and uncertainty strengthened the interpretation of the model outputs by enabling better consideration and distinction of natural heterogeneity from lack of knowledge. Interdisciplinary RBA is necessary to give more structured conclusions and avoid contradictory messages to policymakers and also to consumers, leading to more decisive food recommendations. This assessment provides a conceptual development of the RBA methodology and is a robust basis on which to build upon.

A quantitative microbial risk assessment model for total coliforms and E. coli in surface runoff following application of biosolids to grassland.

In Ireland, the land application of biosolids is the preferred option of disposing of municipal sewage waste. Biosolids provide nutrients in the form of nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium and increases organic matter. It is also an economic way for a country to dispose of its municipal waste. However, biosolids may potentially contain a wide range of pathogens, and following rainfall events, may be transported in surface runoff and pose a potential risk to human health. Thus, a quantitative risk assessment model was developed to estimate potential pathogens in surface water and the environmental fate of the pathogens following dilution, residence time in a stream, die-off rate, drinking water treatment and human exposure. Surface runoff water quality data was provided by project partners. Three types of biosolids, anaerobically digested (AD), lime stabilised (LS), and thermally dried (TD)) were applied on micro plots. Rainfall was simulated at three time intervals (24, 48 and 360 h) following land application. It was assumed that this water entered a nearby stream and was directly abstracted for drinking water. Consumption data for drinking water and body weight was obtained from an Irish study and assigned distributions. Two dose response models for probability of illness were considered for total and faecal coliform exposure incorporating two different exposure scenarios (healthy populations and immuno-compromised populations). The simulated annual risk of illness for healthy populations was below the US EPA and World Health Organisation tolerable level of risk (10-4 and 10-6, respectively). However, immuno-compromised populations may still be at risk as levels were greater than the tolerable level of risk for that subpopulation. The sensitivity analysis highlighted the importance of residence time in a stream on the bacterial die-off rate.

Simulation model to predict the fate of ciprofloxacin in the environment after wastewater treatment.

The extent hospital effluent contributes to antimicrobial presence in the environment and its impact on resistance dissemination remains unknown. To investigate the fate of the antimicrobial ciprofloxacin in hospital effluent a Monte Carlo simulation model was developed to model levels from hospital use to wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluent release, in addition to modeling resistance formation potential, hazard quotient (HQ) and swimmer exposure. The mean predicted concentration (PC) of ciprofloxacin in hospital effluent, urban effluent, WWTP effluent, sludge, soil and sea water was 579, 6.06, 2.59, 3.48, 0.006 and 0.15 mg/m(3), respectively. A parallel surveillance study confirmed levels of ciprofloxacin above or below the limit of detection. The model predicted levels would never exceed the ECOSAR toxicity value. The model predicted a 98% probability of ciprofloxacin exhibiting a HQ > 1 (low toxicity concern). The mean ciprofloxacin PC in WWTP effluent was less than the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC). The probability of conditions in WWTP effluent being favorable for resistance at 20% and 80% of the MIC was 3% and 72%, respectively. In all instances, when the MIC was bound, the probability for resistance formation within soil and sea water was < 1%. The probability of a swimmer being exposed to a level of ciprofloxacin greater than the acceptable daily intake was negligible. The study concluded that release of hospital effluent into the environment may lead to concentrations of ciprofloxacin which are of low toxicity concern but may be conducive to resistance formation and allow for the dissemination of resistance.

Meta-analysis of the effect of ß-glucan intake on blood cholesterol and glucose levels.

OBJECTIVE: A meta-analysis was performed on epidemiologic studies to assess the relation between ß-glucan consumption from oats and from barley on blood cholesterol level, triglyceride/triacylglycerol (TGL/TAG) level, and blood glucose level (BGL) in humans. In addition, the effect of ß-glucan on total cholesterol (TC) and BGL was translated into an empirical dose-response model. METHODS: Thirty research articles that evaluated the effect of different exposure levels of ß-glucan on blood cholesterol and BGL were analyzed, yielding 126 clinical studies. RESULTS: There was a significant inverse relation in TC (-0.60 mmol/L, 95% confidence interval [CI] -0.85 to -0.34), low-density lipoprotein (-0.66 mmol/L, 95% CI -0.96 to -0.36), and TGL/TAG (-0.04 mmol/L, 95% CI -0.15 to 0.07) after consumption of ß-glucan. In contrast, an increase in high-density lipoprotein cholesterol was noted (0.03 mmol/L, 95% CI -0.06 to 0.13) with the random-effect model. The analysis showed a significant change in BGL (-2.58 mmol/L, 95% CI -3.22 to -1.84) with high heterogeneity between (I(2) = 97%) and across (τ(2) = 5.88) the studies. The fixed-effect model showed a significant change in TC, low-density lipoprotein, and BGL, whereas it showed no significant changes in high-density lipoprotein and TGL/TAG. The dose-response model showed that a 3-g/d dose of oat or barley ß-glucan was sufficient to decrease TC. CONCLUSION: Consumption of 3 g/d of oat or barley ß-glucan is sufficient to decrease blood cholesterol, whereas the effect on BGL is still inconclusive, with high heterogeneity, and requires further clinical research studies with longer intervention periods.

A Monte Carlo risk assessment model for acrylamide formation in French fries.

The objective of this study is to estimate the likely human exposure to the group 2a carcinogen, acrylamide, from French fries by Irish consumers by developing a quantitative risk assessment model using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. Various stages in the French-fry-making process were modeled from initial potato harvest, storage, and processing procedures. The model was developed in Microsoft Excel with the @Risk add-on package. The model was run for 10,000 iterations using Latin hypercube sampling. The simulated mean acrylamide level in French fries was calculated to be 317 microg/kg. It was found that females are exposed to smaller levels of acrylamide than males (mean exposure of 0.20 microg/kg bw/day and 0.27 microg/kg bw/day, respectively). Although the carcinogenic potency of acrylamide is not well known, the simulated probability of exceeding the average chronic human dietary intake of 1 microg/kg bw/day (as suggested by WHO) was 0.054 and 0.029 for males and females, respectively. A sensitivity analysis highlighted the importance of the selection of appropriate cultivars with known low reducing sugar levels for French fry production. Strict control of cooking conditions (correlation coefficient of 0.42 and 0.35 for frying time and temperature, respectively) and blanching procedures (correlation coefficient -0.25) were also found to be important in ensuring minimal acrylamide formation.