Estimates of Overall Survival in Patients With Cancer Receiving Different Treatment Regimens: Emulating Hypothetical Target Trials in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare Linked Database.

Importance: The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare linked database may provide insights into the comparative effectiveness of oncological treatments for elderly individuals who are underrepresented in clinical trials. Objective: To evaluate the suitability of SEER-Medicare data for assessing the effectiveness of adding a drug to an existing treatment regimen on the overall survival of elderly patients with cancer. Design, Setting, and Participants: This comparative effectiveness study analyzed SEER-Medicare data from 9549 individuals who received a new diagnosis of stage II colorectal cancer (2008-2012) and 940 patients who received a new diagnosis of advanced pancreatic adenocarcinoma (2007-2012), with follow-up to December 31, 2013 (SEER-Medicare data released in 2015). Two (hypothetical) target trials were designed and emulated based on 2 existing randomized clinical trials: (1) adjuvant fluorouracil after curative surgery for individuals with stage II colorectal cancer and (2) erlotinib added to gemcitabine for individuals with advanced pancreatic adenocarcinoma. Data were analyzed January 2018 to March 2019. Exposures: The following treatment strategies were compared: (1) fluorouracil initiation vs no initiation within 3 months of tumor resection and (2) erlotinib initiation vs no initiation within 12 weeks of gemcitabine initiation. Main Outcomes and Measures: All-cause mortality within 60 months of baseline for the fluorouracil trial and within 72 weeks for the erlotinib trial. Results: Compared with 3293 individuals in the existing fluorouracil trial, 9549 eligible individuals included in the present analyses were more likely to have colon cancer (8565 [90%] vs 2291 [71%]) and were older (median [interquartile range], 79 [73-84] vs 63 [56-68] years). The 5-year risk difference for initiation vs noninitiation of fluorouracil after surgery was -3.8% (95% CI, -14.8% to 12.6%), and the mortality hazard ratio (HR) was 0.95 (95% CI, 0.85-1.04). Compared with 569 individuals in the existing erlotinib trial, 940 eligible patients included in the present analysis were older (median [range], 74 [66-93] vs 64 [36-92] years) and more likely to be male (547 [58%] vs 298 [52%]). The 1-year risk difference for initiation vs noninitiation of erlotinib was 4.7% (95% CI, -9.4% to 18.0%), and the corresponding mortality HR was 1.04 (95% CI, 0.86-1.42). In naive analyses, the mortality HR estimate was 1.14 (95% CI, 0.95-1.36) for the fluorouracil emulation and 0.68 (95% CI, 0.54-0.87) for the erlotinib emulation. Conclusions and Relevance: The present estimates were similar to those from randomized clinical trials that studied adding the same cancer drugs to existing regimens. The published HR was 1.02 (95% CI, 0.70-1.48) in the fluorouracil trial for individuals aged 70 or older and 0.96 (95% CI, 0.74-1.24) in the erlotinib trial for individuals aged 65 years or older. The SEER-Medicare database may be adequate for studying the real-world effectiveness of adding a drug to treatment regimens used for elderly individuals with cancer.

Nuclear IGF-1R predicts chemotherapy and targeted therapy resistance in metastatic colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Although chemotherapy is the cornerstone treatment for patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC), acquired chemoresistance is common and constitutes the main reason for treatment failure. Monoclonal antibodies against insulin-like growth factor-1 receptor (IGF-1R) have been tested in pre-treated mCRC patients, but results have been largely deceiving. METHODS: We analysed time to progression, overall survival, and the mutational status of RAS, BRAF and nuclear p-IGF-1R expression by immunohistochemistry, in 470 metastatic CRC patients. The effect of IGF-1R activation and distribution was also assessed using cellular models of CRC and RNAi for functional validation. RESULTS: Nuclear IGF-1R increased in metastatic tumours compared to paired untreated primary tumours, and significantly correlated with poor overall survival in mCRC patients. In vitro, chemo-resistant cell lines presented significantly higher levels of IGF-1R expression within the nuclear compartment, and PIAS3, a protein implicated also in the sumoylation process of intranuclear proteins, contributed to IGF-1R nuclear sequestration, highlighting the essential role of PIAS3 in this process. Intriguingly, we observed that ganitumab, an IGF-1R blocking-antibody used in several clinical trials, and dasatinib, an SRC inhibitor, increased the nuclear localisation of IGF-1R. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates that IGF-1R nuclear location might lead to chemotherapy and targeted agent resistance.

Adjuvant therapy sparing in rectal cancer achieving complete response after chemoradiation.

AIM: To evaluate the long-term results of conventional chemoradiotherapy and laparoscopic mesorectal excision in rectal adenocarcinoma patients without adjuvant therapy. METHODS: Patients with biopsy-proven adenocarcinoma of the rectum staged cT3-T4 by endoscopic ultrasound or magnetic resonance imaging received neoadjuvant continuous infusion of 5-fluorouracil for five weeks and concomitant radiotherapy. Laparoscopic surgery was planned after 5-8 wk. Patients diagnosed with ypT0N0 stage cancer were not treated with adjuvant therapy according to the protocol. Patients with ypT1-2N0 or ypT3-4 or N+ were offered 5-fluorouracil-based adjuvant treatment on an individual basis. An external cohort was used as a reference for the findings. RESULTS: One hundred and seventy six patients were treated with induction chemoradiotherapy and 170 underwent total mesorectal excision. Cancer staging of ypT0N0 was achieved in 26/170 (15.3%) patients. After a median follow-up of 58.3 mo, patients with ypT0N0 had five-year disease-free and overall survival rates of 96% (95%CI: 77-99) and 100%, respectively. We provide evidence about the natural history of patients with localized rectal cancer achieving a complete response after preoperative chemoradiation. The inherent good prognosis of these patients will have implications for clinical trial design and care of patients. CONCLUSION: Withholding adjuvant chemotherapy after complete response following standard neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and laparoscopic mesorectal excision might be safe within an experienced multidisciplinary team.

Prognostic implications of protein S-100beta serum levels in the clinical outcome of high-risk melanoma patients.

OBJECTIVE: It was the aim of this study to analyze the clinical value of the determination of serum S-100beta protein in high-risk melanoma patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients were tested for serum S-100beta protein by luminoimmunometric assay after melanoma surgical excision, before starting interferon-alpha2b and every 3 months thereafter, until treatment was completed. RESULTS: Ninety-seven patients were included in the study. Median follow-up was 62.9 months (range 32.7-87.4). High baseline S-100beta levels were associated with positive lymph node status (p = 0.02). High S-100beta levels (during therapy) showed a relation with positive lymph node status (p = 0.014), number of positive lymph nodes (p = 0.01), macroscopic lymph node involvement (p = 0.002) and second melanoma diagnosis at study entry (p = 0.001). By univariate analysis, high baseline S-100beta levels were associated with disease-free survival (p = 0.004) and overall survival (p = 0.0007). Similarly, high S-100beta levels during therapy were associated with disease-free survival (p < 0.0001) and overall survival (p < 0.0001). In the multivariate analysis, high S-100beta levels during therapy (hazard ratio 1.017, 95% CI 1.008-1.026; p < 0.0001) and high baseline S-100beta levels (hazard ratio 3.31, 95% CI 1.10-9.89; p = 0.032) were independent prognostic factors for overall survival when compared with low levels while on therapy and low baseline S-100beta levels, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: These results provide evidence of the clinical usefulness of serum S-100beta level determination in high-risk melanoma patients. S-100beta serum determination should be considered to be included in clinical trials that test adjuvant therapies in melanoma patients.