Twelve-month post-treatment parameters are superior in predicting hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There are currently several prediction models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) receiving oral antiviral therapy. However, most models are based on pre-treatment clinical parameters. The current study aimed to develop a novel and practical prediction model for HCC by using both pre- and post-treatment parameters in this population. METHODS: We included two treatment-naïve CHB cohorts who were initiated on oral antiviral therapies: the derivation cohort (n = 1480, Korea prospective SAINT cohort) and the validation cohort (n = 426, the US retrospective Stanford Bay cohort). We employed logistic regression, decision tree, lasso regression, support vector machine and random forest algorithms to develop the HCC prediction model and selected the most optimal method. RESULTS: We evaluated both pre-treatment and the 12-month clinical parameters on-treatment and found the 12-month on-treatment values to have superior HCC prediction performance. The lasso logistic regression algorithm using the presence of cirrhosis at baseline and alpha-foetoprotein and platelet at 12 months showed the best performance (AUROC = 0.843 in the derivation cohort. The model performed well in the external validation cohort (AUROC = 0.844) and better than other existing prediction models including the APA, PAGE-B and GAG models (AUROC = 0.769 to 0.818). CONCLUSIONS: We provided a simple-to-use HCC prediction model based on presence of cirrhosis at baseline and two objective laboratory markers (AFP and platelets) measured 12 months after antiviral initiation. The model is highly accurate with excellent validation in an external cohort from a different country (AUROC 0.844) (Clinical trial number: KCT0003487).

Biostimulatory effects of polydioxanone, poly-d, l lactic acid, and polycaprolactone fillers in mouse model.

BACKGROUND: Numerous fillers are increasingly used for augmentation of volume loss and relaxation of facial wrinkles. Collagen stimulators are the latest next-generation dermal fillers that can induce neocollagenesis. To investigate biophysical characteristics, safety, and efficacy of newly developed polydioxanone (PDO) filler in comparison with poly-l lactic acid (PLLA) and polycaprolactone (PCL) fillers. METHODS: In vitro assay, morphology of particles, and rheological property of fillers were measured. A total of 24 female hairless mice (SKH1-Hrhr ) were randomly divided into three groups and injected with PDO, PLLA, or PCL fillers. Durability of fillers was assessed at 0, 3 days, and 1, 4, 8, 12 weeks after injection using folliscope and PRIMOS. To determine biocompatibility and neocollagenesis, histologic evaluation was performed at 1, 4, 8, and 12 weeks after injection. Efficacy was also evaluated based on skin surface roughness changes using PRIMOS in a hairless mouse photoaging model. RESULTS: In the particle morphology test, PDO microspheres had an irregular surface and were spherical and uniformly sized. PDO filler demonstrated similar neocollagenesis and inflammatory response to other collagen stimulators. PDO filler showed better biodegradability than PLLA and PCL fillers. In the hairless mouse photoaging model, there was a statistically significant decrease in skin surface roughness after PDO filler injection. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that newly developed collagen stimulating PDO filler might be a safe and effective option for correction of volume loss and rejuvenation of photoaging skin.

Influence of emulsion interfacial membrane characteristics on Ostwald ripening in a model emulsion.

Ostwald ripening is a major destabilization mechanism for emulsions containing flavor oils with relatively high water solubilities. Emulsions with different oil phase compositions were prepared that were stabilized by polyoxyethylene alkyl ether-type emulsifiers with differently sized hydrophilic and hydrophobic groups. Emulsions prepared using only orange oil were highly unstable to Ostwlad ripening during storage. When emulsifier concentration was increased, Ostawald ripening in emulsions containing emulsifiers with small hydrophilic groups was inhibited, while size increment of droplets in emulsions containing emulsifiers with large hydrophilic groups was not. Droplet enlargement was effectively inhibited by incorporating corn oil into the oil phase prior to homogenization. However, the concentration of corn oil required to inhibit Ostwald ripening varied depending on the structural characteristics and concentrations of the emulsifiers present. These results could have important implications for the selection of emulsifiers to improve the physical stability of orange oil emulsions for use in the food and beverage industries.