Prediction From Minimal Experience: How People Predict the Duration of an Ongoing Epidemic.

People are known for good predictions in domains they have rich experience with, such as everyday statistics and intuitive physics. But how well can they predict for problems they lack experience with, such as the duration of an ongoing epidemic caused by a new virus? Amid the first wave of COVID-19 in China, we conducted an online diary study, asking each of over 400 participants to predict the remaining duration of the epidemic, once per day for 14 days. Participants' predictions reflected a reasonable use of publicly available information but were meanwhile biased, subject to the influence of negative affect and future time perspectives. Computational modeling revealed that participants neither relied on prior distributions of epidemic durations as in inferring everyday statistics, nor on mechanistic simulations of epidemic dynamics as in computing intuitive physics. Instead, with minimal experience, participants' predictions were best explained by similarity-based generalization of the temporal pattern of epidemic statistics. In two control experiments, we further confirmed that such cognitive algorithm is not specific to the epidemic scenario and that minimal and rich experience do lead to different prediction behaviors for the same observations. We conclude that people generalize patterns in recent history to predict the future under minimal experience.

Mindfulness and Stress Among Parents of Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder in China.

Parenting a child with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) can be tremendously challenging. It is important to identify factors associated with parenting stress. This study examined the indirect effect of parental dispositional mindfulness on their anxiety and depressive symptoms and family quality of life (FQOL) through mindful parenting and then parenting stress. Seventy-nine Chinese parents (24.1% fathers) of children with ASD aged 3-13 years completed self-report questionnaires. Results indicated that higher dispositional mindfulness was associated with higher mindful parenting, which was related to lower parenting stress, and further related to lower anxiety and depressive symptoms and higher FQOL. The findings provide valuable insight into the potential pathways through which general mindfulness and mindful parenting may positively impact parental outcomes.