Dynamic prediction of transition to psychosis using joint modelling.

Considerable research has been conducted seeking risk factors and constructing prediction models for transition to psychosis in individuals at ultra-high risk (UHR). Nearly all such research has only employed baseline predictors, i.e. data collected at the baseline time point, even though longitudinal data on relevant measures such as psychopathology have often been collected at various time points. Dynamic prediction, which is the updating of prediction at a post-baseline assessment using baseline and longitudinal data accumulated up to that assessment, has not been utilized in the UHR context. This study explored the use of dynamic prediction and determined if it could enhance the prediction of frank psychosis onset in UHR individuals. An emerging statistical methodology called joint modelling was used to implement the dynamic prediction. Data from the NEURAPRO study (n = 304 UHR individuals), an intervention study with transition to psychosis study as the primary outcome, were used to investigate dynamic predictors. Compared with the conventional approach of using only baseline predictors, dynamic prediction using joint modelling showed significantly better sensitivity, specificity and likelihood ratios. As dynamic prediction can provide an up-to-date prediction for each individual at each new assessment post entry, it can be a useful tool to help clinicians adjust their prognostic judgements based on the unfolding clinical symptomatology of the patients. This study has shown that a dynamic approach to psychosis prediction using joint modelling has the potential to aid clinicians in making decisions about the provision of timely and personalized treatment to patients concerned.

Predictors of placebo response in pharmacological and dietary supplement treatment trials in pediatric autism spectrum disorder: a meta-analysis.

Large placebo responses in many clinical trials limit our capacity to identify effective therapeutics. Although it is often assumed that core behaviors in children with autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) rarely remit spontaneously, there has been limited investigation of the size of the placebo response in relevant clinical trials. These trials also rely on caregiver and clinical observer reports as outcome measures. The objectives of this meta-analysis are to identify the pooled placebo response and the predictors of placebo response in pharmacological and dietary supplement treatment trials for participants with a diagnosis of ASD. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in pediatric ASD, conducted between 1980 and August 2014, were identified through a search of Medline, EMBASE, Web of Science, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and clinicaltrials.gov. RCTs of at least 14 days duration, comparing the treatment response for an oral active agent and placebo using at least one of the common outcome measures, were included. Analysis of 25 data sets (1315 participants) revealed a moderate effect size for overall placebo response (Hedges' g=0.45, 95% confidence interval (0.34-0.56), P<0.001). Five factors were associated with an increase in response to placebo, namely: an increased response to the active intervention; outcome ratings by clinicians (as compared with caregivers); trials of pharmacological and adjunctive interventions; and trials located in Iran. There is a clear need for the identification of objective measures of change in clinical trials for ASD, such as evaluation of biological activity or markers, and for consideration of how best to deal with placebo response effects in trial design and analyses.

In vivo glutathione levels in young persons with bipolar disorder: a magnetic resonance spectroscopy study.

Oxidative stress has recently been reported to assume a significant role in the pathophysiology of bipolar disorder. Several studies have demonstrated the replenishment of glutathione (GSH) diminishes oxidative cellular damage and ameliorates depressive symptoms in this disorder. Whilst the mechanism by which GSH exerts any clinical effect is unknown it has been proposed that it involves the bolstering of antioxidant defences by increasing the bioavailability of GSH, which in turn reverses clinical symptoms of depression. Such a proposal is predicated on the implicit assumption that GSH is diminished in these patients prior to GSH supplementation. However hitherto no study has reported in vivo measures of GSH in patients with bipolar disorder. Using magnetic resonance spectroscopy we obtained in vivo measures of GSH in young people with bipolar disorder and contrasted these with matched healthy controls. Young people with bipolar disorder were found to have no diminution in baseline GSH concentration and, furthermore, no significant correlations were found between GSH and clinical scores of depression or mania. The results do not support the hypothesis that oxidative stress is involved in the primary pathophysiology of bipolar disorder.

A systematic review of resting-state functional-MRI studies in major depression.

BACKGROUND: To evaluate the literature pertaining to the use of resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) in Major Depression (MD). METHODS: A search for papers published in English was conducted using MedLine, Embase, PsycINFO, OvidSP, and ScienceDirect with the following words: resting state, depression, MRI, affective, and default-mode. RESULTS: The findings from 16 resting-state fMRI studies on MD are tabulated. Some common findings are discussed in further detail. CONCLUSION: The use of resting-state fMRI in MD research has yielded a number of significant findings that provide the basis for understanding the pathophysiology of depressive symptoms. Of particular note and deserving of further research are the roles of the cortico-limbic mood regulating circuit (MRC) and the interaction between task-positive and task-negative networks in MD. There is increasing interest in the use of resting-state fMRI in the study of psychiatric conditions, and continued improvement in technique and methodology will prove valuable in future research.

The relationship between fatigue, psychological and immunological variables in acute infectious illness.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this paper is to explore the longitudinal relationships between physical and psychological symptoms and immunological factors following acute infective illnesses. METHOD: Preliminary data from a prospective investigation of patients with serologically proven acute infectious illnesses due to Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), Ross River virus (RRV) or Q fever are reported. Patients were assessed within 4 weeks of onset of symptoms and then reviewed 2 and 4 weeks later. Physical illness data were collected at interview. Psychological and somatic symptom profiles were assessed by standardised self-report questionnaires. Cell-mediated immune (CMI) function was assessed by measurement of delayed-type hypersensitivity (DTH) skin responses. RESULTS: Thirty patients who had been assessed and followed over the 4-week period (including 17 patients with EBV, five with RRV and eight with Q fever) were included in this analysis. During the acute phase, profound fatigue and malaise were the most common symptoms. Classical depressive and anxiety symptoms were not prominent. Initially, 46% of cases had no DTH skin response (i.e. cutaneous anergy) indicative of impaired cellular immunity. Over the 4-week period, there was a marked improvement in both somatic and psychological symptoms, although fatigue remained a prominent feature in 63% of subjects. The reduction in reported fatigue was correlated with improvement in the DTH skin response (p = 0.001) and with improvement in General Health Questionnaire (GHQ) scores (p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Acute infectious illnesses are accompanied by a range of nonspecific somatic and psychological symptoms, particularly fatigue and malaise rather than anxiety and depression. Although improvement in several symptoms occurs rapidly, fatigue commonly remains a prominent complaint at 4 weeks. Resolution of fatigue is associated with improvement in cell-mediated immunity.