Projections of prevalence, lifetime risk, and life expectancy of Parkinson's disease (2010-2030) in France.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies on the number of Parkinson's disease (PD) patients in the future based on projections of population size underestimated PD burden because they did not take into account the improvement of life expectancy over time. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to assess PD progression from 2010 to 2030 in France in terms of prevalent patient numbers, prevalence rates, lifetime risk, and life expectancy with PD, accounting for projections of overall mortality and increased risk of death of PD patients. METHODS: To provide projections of PD burden, we applied a multistate approach considering age and calendar time to incidence and prevalence rates of PD (France 2010) based on drug claims and national demographic data. RESULTS: The number of PD patients will increase by ∼65% between 2010 (n = 155,000) and 2030 (n ∼ 260,000), mainly for individuals older than 65 years; the prevalence rate of PD after age 45 will increase from 0.59% in 2010 to ∼0.80% in 2030. We project an extension of ∼3 years of the life expectancy of PD patients at 65 years between 2010 (women, 14.8 years; men, 13.0 years) and 2030 (women, 17.8 years; men, 16.1 years), and a relative increase of about 10% of the lifetime risk of PD at 45 years between 2010 (women, 5.5%; men, 6.0%) and 2030 (women, 6.3%; men, 7.4%). CONCLUSIONS: The number of PD patients is predicted to grow substantially in future years as a consequence of population aging and life expectancy improvement. The assessment of the future PD burden is an important step for planning resources needed for patient care in aging societies. © 2018 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Aluminum and silica in drinking water and the risk of Alzheimer's disease or cognitive decline: findings from 15-year follow-up of the PAQUID cohort.

The authors examined associations between exposure to aluminum or silica from drinking water and risk of cognitive decline, dementia, and Alzheimer's disease among elderly subjects followed for 15 years (1988-2003). They actively searched for incident cases of dementia among persons aged 65 years or over living in 91 civil drinking-water areas in southern France. Two measures of exposure to aluminum were assessed: geographic exposure and individual exposure, taking into account daily consumption of tap water and bottled water. A total of 1,925 subjects who were free of dementia at baseline and had reliable water assessment data were analyzed. Using random-effects models, the authors found that cognitive decline with time was greater in subjects with a higher daily intake of aluminum from drinking water (>or=0.1 mg/day, P=0.005) or higher geographic exposure to aluminum. Using a Cox model, a high daily intake of aluminum was significantly associated with increased risk of dementia. Conversely, an increase of 10 mg/day in silica intake was associated with a reduced risk of dementia (adjusted relative risk =0.89, P=0.036). However, geographic exposure to aluminum or silica from tap water was not associated with dementia. High consumption of aluminum from drinking water may be a risk factor for Alzheimer's disease.