RESUMO
Background: In China, there are few studies that have reported future estimations for cancer mortality. Therefore, this study aimed to assess cancer mortality in China and identify priorities for future cancer control strategies. Methods: Based on the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study, we extracted data on cancer-related deaths from 1990 to 2019 in Hunan Province, China. Under the current trends evaluated using a joinpoint regression model, we fitted a linear regression model for cancer mortality projections by 2025. Results: The age-standardized mortality rate of total cancer in Hunan, China, declined slowly and is projected to be 140.80 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 140.12-141.48) by 2025, with the mortality rate in men approximately twice that in women. In 2025, the top five causes of cancer-related deaths in males are projected to be lung, liver, colorectal, stomach, and esophageal cancers, with the corresponding causes in females being lung, breast, colorectal, liver, and cervical cancers. Between 2019 and 2025, male mortality rates due to liver and pancreatic cancer are expected to increase, while those due to the six leading female cancers will increase. Excess male deaths were associated with liver and esophageal cancers, while all main cancers in females will have excess mortality, except for colorectal cancer. Conclusion: A comprehensive cancer spectrum characteristic of both developing and developed countries will remain in Hunan, China. Lung cancer remains the most common cause of cancer-related deaths, and tobacco control efforts are urgently required. Additional efforts should be made to promote universal screening, improve access to cancer healthcare services, optimize medical payment models, and enhance access to valuable anticancer drugs.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Cost-effective strategies of chronic disease control, integrated health education and health promotion play important roles in the programs of chronic disease demonstration districts in China. The performance of these districts can be directly assessed by their health education and promotion work. However, there have been only a few performance assessments done on these programs, most of which made without the inclusion of proper quality indicators. This study was designed to establish a framework of indicators for outcome evaluation of health education and promotion efforts in Chinese districts, and explore the factors involved in promoting these efforts. METHODS: A modified two-round Delphi survey was first used to construct quality indicators on a nine-point Likert scale. With those indicators, the rank sum ratio (RSR) method was then conducted through rank conversion and parametric statistics, to assess and classify the performance of ten districts or counties randomly chosen both from demonstration and non-demonstration districts in the Hunan province. RESULTS: The Delphi process produced seven themes and 25 sub-themes as quality indicators. The seven themes included organizational management, financial support, professional personnel, health education and promotion, residents' health awareness and behaviors, residents' satisfaction, and residents' health literacy. The districts were classified into four levels by RSR as follows: One demonstration district at the first-ranked level, five other demonstration districts at the second-ranked level, all non-demonstration districts at the third-ranked level. None were at the fourth-qualified level. DISCUSSION: Chronic disease demonstration districts performed better on the work of health education and health promotion than the non-demonstration districts. The work should be focused on the following measures of chronic diseases: organizational management, financial support, media-related broadcasting, technical support, community-based promotion and supportive environment, and people's enhanced awareness and health literacy.