Polygenic hazard score to guide screening for aggressive prostate cancer: development and validation in large scale cohorts.

OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a genetic tool to predict age of onset of aggressive prostate cancer (PCa) and to guide decisions of who to screen and at what age. DESIGN: Analysis of genotype, PCa status, and age to select single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with diagnosis. These polymorphisms were incorporated into a survival analysis to estimate their effects on age at diagnosis of aggressive PCa (that is, not eligible for surveillance according to National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines; any of Gleason score ≥7, stage T3-T4, PSA (prostate specific antigen) concentration ≥10 ng/L, nodal metastasis, distant metastasis). The resulting polygenic hazard score is an assessment of individual genetic risk. The final model was applied to an independent dataset containing genotype and PSA screening data. The hazard score was calculated for these men to test prediction of survival free from PCa. SETTING: Multiple institutions that were members of international PRACTICAL consortium. PARTICIPANTS: All consortium participants of European ancestry with known age, PCa status, and quality assured custom (iCOGS) array genotype data. The development dataset comprised 31 747 men; the validation dataset comprised 6411 men. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prediction with hazard score of age of onset of aggressive cancer in validation set. RESULTS: In the independent validation set, the hazard score calculated from 54 single nucleotide polymorphisms was a highly significant predictor of age at diagnosis of aggressive cancer (z=11.2, P<10-16). When men in the validation set with high scores (>98th centile) were compared with those with average scores (30th-70th centile), the hazard ratio for aggressive cancer was 2.9 (95% confidence interval 2.4 to 3.4). Inclusion of family history in a combined model did not improve prediction of onset of aggressive PCa (P=0.59), and polygenic hazard score performance remained high when family history was accounted for. Additionally, the positive predictive value of PSA screening for aggressive PCa was increased with increasing polygenic hazard score. CONCLUSIONS: Polygenic hazard scores can be used for personalised genetic risk estimates that can predict for age at onset of aggressive PCa.

Investigating the possible causal role of coffee consumption with prostate cancer risk and progression using Mendelian randomization analysis.

Coffee consumption has been shown in some studies to be associated with lower risk of prostate cancer. However, it is unclear if this association is causal or due to confounding or reverse causality. We conducted a Mendelian randomisation analysis to investigate the causal effects of coffee consumption on prostate cancer risk and progression. We used two genetic variants robustly associated with caffeine intake (rs4410790 and rs2472297) as proxies for coffee consumption in a sample of 46,687 men of European ancestry from 25 studies in the PRACTICAL consortium. Associations between genetic variants and prostate cancer case status, stage and grade were assessed by logistic regression and with all-cause and prostate cancer-specific mortality using Cox proportional hazards regression. There was no clear evidence that a genetic risk score combining rs4410790 and rs2472297 was associated with prostate cancer risk (OR per additional coffee increasing allele: 1.01, 95% CI: 0.98,1.03) or having high-grade compared to low-grade disease (OR: 1.01, 95% CI: 0.97,1.04). There was some evidence that the genetic risk score was associated with higher odds of having nonlocalised compared to localised stage disease (OR: 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.06). Amongst men with prostate cancer, there was no clear association between the genetic risk score and all-cause mortality (HR: 1.00, 95% CI: 0.97,1.04) or prostate cancer-specific mortality (HR: 1.03, 95% CI: 0.98,1.08). These results, which should have less bias from confounding than observational estimates, are not consistent with a substantial effect of coffee consumption on reducing prostate cancer incidence or progression.

Clonal dissemination of multilocus sequence type ST15 KPC-2-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae in Bulgaria.

A total of 36 consecutive clinical and two fecal-screening carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates from two Bulgarian university hospitals (Varna and Pleven) were investigated. Susceptibility testing, conjugation experiments, and plasmid replicon typing were carried out. Beta-lactamases were characterized by isoelectric focusing, PCR, and sequencing. Clonal relatedness was investigated by RAPD and multilocus sequence typing (MLST). Most of the isolates demonstrated multidrug resistance profile. Amikacin and tigecycline retained good activity with susceptibility rates of 95 and 87%, respectively. The resistance rate to colistin was 63%. Six RAPD- and MLST-types were identified: the dominating MLST-type was ST15 (27 isolates), followed by ST76 (six isolates), and ST1350 (two isolates). ST101, ST258, and ST151 were detected once. All except one of the K. pneumoniae produced KPC-2, mostly in combination with CTX-M-15, while for one isolate (ST101) the enzymes OXA-48 and CTX-M-14 were found. All KPC-2-producing transconjugants revealed the presence of IncFII plasmid. The OXA-48- and CTX-M-14-producing isolate showed the presence of L/M replicon type. The dissemination of KPC-2-producing K.pneumoniae in Bulgaria is mainly due to the sustained spread of successful ST15 clone and to a lesser extent of ST76 clone. This is the first report of OXA-48 producing ST101 K. pneumoniae in Bulgaria.