Polygenic hazard score to guide screening for aggressive prostate cancer: development and validation in large scale cohorts.

OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a genetic tool to predict age of onset of aggressive prostate cancer (PCa) and to guide decisions of who to screen and at what age. DESIGN: Analysis of genotype, PCa status, and age to select single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with diagnosis. These polymorphisms were incorporated into a survival analysis to estimate their effects on age at diagnosis of aggressive PCa (that is, not eligible for surveillance according to National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines; any of Gleason score ≥7, stage T3-T4, PSA (prostate specific antigen) concentration ≥10 ng/L, nodal metastasis, distant metastasis). The resulting polygenic hazard score is an assessment of individual genetic risk. The final model was applied to an independent dataset containing genotype and PSA screening data. The hazard score was calculated for these men to test prediction of survival free from PCa. SETTING: Multiple institutions that were members of international PRACTICAL consortium. PARTICIPANTS: All consortium participants of European ancestry with known age, PCa status, and quality assured custom (iCOGS) array genotype data. The development dataset comprised 31 747 men; the validation dataset comprised 6411 men. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prediction with hazard score of age of onset of aggressive cancer in validation set. RESULTS: In the independent validation set, the hazard score calculated from 54 single nucleotide polymorphisms was a highly significant predictor of age at diagnosis of aggressive cancer (z=11.2, P<10-16). When men in the validation set with high scores (>98th centile) were compared with those with average scores (30th-70th centile), the hazard ratio for aggressive cancer was 2.9 (95% confidence interval 2.4 to 3.4). Inclusion of family history in a combined model did not improve prediction of onset of aggressive PCa (P=0.59), and polygenic hazard score performance remained high when family history was accounted for. Additionally, the positive predictive value of PSA screening for aggressive PCa was increased with increasing polygenic hazard score. CONCLUSIONS: Polygenic hazard scores can be used for personalised genetic risk estimates that can predict for age at onset of aggressive PCa.

Fatty acid patterns and risk of prostate cancer in a case-control study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition.

BACKGROUND: Fatty acids in blood may be related to the risk of prostate cancer, but epidemiologic evidence is inconsistent. Blood fatty acids are correlated through shared food sources and common endogenous desaturation and elongation pathways. Studies of individual fatty acids cannot take this into account, but pattern analysis can. Treelet transform (TT) is a novel method that uses data correlation structures to derive sparse factors that explain variation. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to gain further insight in the association between plasma fatty acids and risk of prostate cancer by applying TT to take data correlations into account. DESIGN: We reanalyzed previously published data from a case-control study of prostate cancer nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. TT was used to derive factors explaining the variation in 26 plasma phospholipid fatty acids of 962 incident prostate cancer cases matched to 1061 controls. Multiple imputation was used to deal with missing data in covariates. ORs of prostate cancer according to factor scores were determined by using multivariable conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: Four simple factors explained 38% of the variation in plasma fatty acids. A high score on a factor reflecting a long-chain n-3 PUFA pattern was associated with greater risk of prostate cancer (OR for highest compared with lowest quintile: 1.36; 95% CI: 0.99, 1.86; P-trend = 0.041). CONCLUSION: Pattern analyses using TT groupings of correlated fatty acids indicate that intake or metabolism of long-chain n-3 PUFAs may be relevant to prostate cancer etiology.

Variations in plasma phytoestrogen concentrations in European adults.

Dietary phytoestrogens may play a role in chronic disease occurrence. The aim of our study was to assess the variability of plasma concentrations in European populations. We included 15 geographical regions in 9 European countries (Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Spain, Sweden, The Netherlands, and UK) and a 16th region, Oxford, UK, where participants were recruited from among vegans and vegetarians. All subjects were participants of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Plasma concentrations of 3 isoflavones (daidzein, genistein, and glycitein), 2 metabolites of daidzein [O-desmethylangolensin (O-DMA) and equol] and 2 mammalian lignans (enterodiol and enterolactone) were measured in 1414 participants. We computed geometric means for each region and used multivariate regression analysis to assess the influence of region, adjusted for gender, age, BMI, alcohol intake, smoking status, and laboratory batch. Many subjects had concentrations below the detection limit [0.1 microg/L (0.4 nmol/L)] for glycitein (80%), O-DMA (73%) and equol (62%). Excluding subjects from Oxford, UK, the highest concentrations of isoflavones were in subjects from the Netherlands and Cambridge, UK [2-6 microg/L (7-24 nmol/L); P < 0.05], whereas concentrations for lignans were highest in Denmark [8 microg/L (27 nmol/L); P < 0.05]. Isoflavones varied 8- to 13-fold, whereas lignans varied 4-fold. In the vegetarian/vegan cohort of Oxford, concentrations of isoflavones were 5-50 times higher than in nonvegetarian regions. Region was the most important determinant of plasma concentrations for all 7 phytoestrogens. Despite the fact that plasma concentrations of phytoestrogens in Europe were low compared with Asian populations, they varied substantially among subjects from the 16 different regions.