Modelling of the estimated contributions of different sub-watersheds and sources to phosphorous export and loading from the Dongting Lake watershed, China.

Considerable growth in the economy and population of the Dongting Lake watershed in Southern China has increased phosphorus loading to the lake and resulted in a growing risk of lake eutrophication. This study aimed to reveal the spatial pattern and sources of phosphorus export and loading from the watershed. We applied an export coefficient model and the Dillon-Rigler model to quantify contributions of different sub-watersheds and sources to the total phosphorus (TP) export and loading in 2010. Together, the upper and lower reaches of the Xiang River watershed and the Dongting Lake Area contributed 60.9% of the TP exported from the entire watershed. Livestock husbandry appeared to be the largest anthropogenic source of TP, contributing more than 50% of the TP exported from each secondary sub-watersheds. The actual TP loading to the lake in 2010 was 62.9% more than the permissible annual TP loading for compliance with the Class III water quality standard for lakes. Three primary sub-watersheds-the Dongting Lake Area, the Xiang River, and the Yuan River watersheds-contributed 91.2% of the total TP loading. As the largest contributor among all sources, livestock husbandry contributed nearly 50% of the TP loading from the Dongting Lake Area and more than 60% from each of the other primary sub-watersheds. This study provides a methodology to identify the key sources and locations of TP export and loading in large lake watersheds. The study can provide a reference for the decision-making for controlling P pollution in the Dongting Lake watershed.

Scenario analysis of the impacts of socioeconomic development on phosphorous export and loading from the Dongting Lake watershed, China.

Socioeconomic development in lake watersheds is closely related with lake nutrient pollution. As the second largest freshwater lake in China, the Dongting Lake has been experiencing an increase in nutrient loading and a growing risk of eutrophication. This study aimed to reveal the likely impacts of the socioeconomic development of the Dongting Lake watershed on the phosphorous pollution in the lake. We estimated the contributions from different sources and sub-watersheds to the total phosphorous (TP) export and loading from the Dongting Lake watershed under two most likely socioeconomic development scenarios. Moreover, we predicted the likely permissible and actual TP loadings to the Dongting Lake. Under both two scenarios, three secondary sub-watersheds-the upper and lower reaches of the Xiang River watershed and the Dongting Lake Area-are expected to dominate the contribution to the TP export from the Dongting Lake watershed in 2020. Three primary sub-watersheds-the Dongting Lake Area, the Xiang River, and the Yuan River watersheds-are predicted to be the major contributors to the TP loading from the entire watershed. The two scenarios are expected to have a slight difference in TP export and lake TP loading. Livestock husbandry is expected to be the predominant anthropogenic TP source in each of the sub-watersheds under both scenarios. Compared to 2010, permissible TP loading is not expected to increase but actual TP loading is predicted to grow significantly in 2020. Our study provides methodologies to identify the key sources and regions of lake nutrient loading from watersheds with complex socioeconomic context, and to reveal the potential influences of socioeconomic development on nutrient pollution in lake watersheds.